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Atalanta crestAtalanta
v
Frosinone crestFrosinone

Serie A | Sun 25 Oct, 14:00

Atalanta v Frosinone Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 22:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Frosinone traveling to face Atalanta, with Frosinone currently enjoying better form and a higher league standing. Frosinone have accumulated 13 points, showing resilience and attacking intent, while Atalanta have struggled to find consistency, sitting mid-table with 9 points. The visitors' ability to create more shots and maintain defensive solidity contrasts with Atalanta's recent defensive vulnerabilities, setting up an intriguing tactical battle where Frosinone's momentum and offensive efficiency could prove decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Frosinone to Win

  • Frosinone holds a 70% to win with strong value at 3.8 .
  • Frosinone averages 19.8 shots and 6 corners per game, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Atalanta concedes 2 goals per game, showing defensive fragility.
  • Frosinone’s top attacker A. Raimondo scores 7 goals with 1.58 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • Recent form favors Frosinone with 10 points versus Atalanta’s 3 in last matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Frosinone to win due to their superior recent form, higher league standing, and offensive efficiency. They average nearly 20 shots per game with key players like A. Raimondo contributing significant goal threat. Atalanta's defensive record is less convincing, conceding 2 goals per match, which aligns with Frosinone's attacking pressure. The offer positive value, reflecting a strong chance for an away win based on tactical momentum and statistical indicators. No price warnings apply, supporting a standard stake approach.

Recent FormFrosinone 10 points vs Atalanta 3 points
Strong positive
Shots and Offensive PressureFrosinone 19.8 shots/game vs Atalanta 14.6
Strong positive
Defensive VulnerabilityAtalanta concedes 2 goals/game
Positive
Key Player ImpactA. Raimondo 7 goals, 1.58 SOT/90
Strong positive
Market Value Edge41.3% model chance vs 26.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Frosinone's recent form and attacking statistics suggest they are well-positioned to claim victory against Atalanta. Their ability to generate high shot volumes and capitalize on Atalanta's defensive lapses underpins this outlook. The data-driven in Frosinone's win is supported by their higher league standing and momentum, making them a compelling pick for this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical advantage for Frosinone

“Frosinone's offensive dynamism combined with Atalanta's defensive inconsistencies creates a clear pathway for an away win, especially given Frosinone's superior recent form and shot creation metrics.”

Key Data Signals

Frosinone to Win evidence

Frosinone holds a 70% to win with strong value at 3.8 .

Frosinone averages 19.8 shots and 6 corners per game, indicating offensive pressure.

Atalanta concedes 2 goals per game, showing defensive fragility.

Frosinone’s top attacker A. Raimondo scores 7 goals with 1.58 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Frosinone to Win notes

  • In the last six head-to-head encounters, the average goals per match stand at 3.17, indicating an open game with scoring opportunities.
  • Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates (Atalanta 80%, Frosinone 60%) suggest a high-tempo match with chances at both ends, supporting expectations for multiple goals and an engaging contest.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atalanta1.4
Avg goals scored
Frosinone2
Atalanta2
Avg goals conceded
Frosinone1.6
Atalanta80%
BTTS rate
Frosinone60%
Atalanta80%
Over 2.5 goals
Frosinone60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams have shown tendencies for goals, with Atalanta's matches featuring an 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Frosinone's at 60%. Frosinone's attacking efficiency and Atalanta's defensive concessions suggest a match with multiple goals is likely, though BTTS rates are higher for Atalanta, indicating Frosinone may focus on securing the win rather than open attacking exchanges.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFrosinone to WinBetUK guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
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Frosinone Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 41.3% for Frosinone to Win sits against roughly 26.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Frosinone have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 3 for Atalanta. Atalanta's home reliability and Frosinone's defensive gaps support a 2-1 scoreline.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atalanta

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 4L
18 Oct 2026A AC Milan2-3
12 Oct 2026H Venezia3-1
20 Sep 2026A Juventus0-2
12 Sep 2026H Cagliari1-2
05 Sep 2026A AS Roma1-2

Frosinone

WLWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 2L
16 Oct 2026H Sassuolo4-2
10 Oct 2026A Napoli0-3
20 Sep 2026H Como2-0
12 Sep 2026A Genoa1-1
06 Sep 2026H Venezia3-2
Market aligned with main pickFrosinone to WinBetUK guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Frosinone Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Frosinone's recent form is markedly superior, accumulating 10 points compared to Atalanta's 3 in recent matches. This momentum is reflected in their higher goals scored per game and better defensive record, suggesting and tactical cohesion. Atalanta's struggles to convert chances and defensive lapses have undermined their results, favoring Frosinone's winning prospects.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Atalanta Over 2.5
60%Frosinone Over 2.5
3.17H2H avg goals
In the last six head-to-head encounters, the average goals per match stand at 3.17, indicating an open game with scoring opportunities. Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates (Atalanta 80%, Frosinone 60%) suggest a high-tempo match with chances at both ends, supporting expectations for multiple goals and an engaging contest.

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