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Eliteserien | Sun 25 Oct, 13:30

Viking v Tromso Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Viking and Tromso meet in an Eliteserien clash where both teams have shown contrasting offensive and defensive profiles this season. Viking, sitting second in the league, have a strong defensive record conceding just 0.8 goals per game, while Tromso, ranked fourth, have struggled defensively with 2.2 goals conceded on average. Viking's recent form reflects a tight defensive setup, and Tromso's attacking output has been modest. This tactical balance and defensive solidity suggest a cautious encounter with limited goal-scoring opportunities, setting the stage for a low-scoring match.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Viking concede only 0.8 goals per game, indicating strong defense
  • Tromso average 2.2 goals conceded per game, showing defensive vulnerability
  • Both teams have moderate BTTS rates: Viking 60%, Tromso 80%
  • Viking's recent matches see 60% over 2.5 goals, Tromso 40%, suggesting variability
  • Model projects a 40.4% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, slightly above market

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 40.4% probability, reflecting Viking's solid defensive record and Tromso's inconsistent attacking threat. Viking's low goals conceded per game and Tromso's modest goal-scoring average support a cautious game with fewer goals. The market at 2.7 offer a small positive , indicating this selection is a sensible choice given the defensive tendencies and recent form. No price warnings apply, and the data quality is reliable for both teams.

Viking defensive strength0.8 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Tromso attacking inconsistency1.6 goals scored per game
Positive
Model chance vs implied chance40.4% model chance vs 37% implied (+3.4 pts)
Positive
Recent over 2.5 goals ratesViking 60%, Tromso 40%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical pick given Viking's strong defensive discipline and Tromso's limited goal-scoring consistency. Viking's ability to restrict opponents and the moderate attacking threat from Tromso suggest a match likely to stay tight and low scoring. The data supports a cautious game with few clear-cut chances.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · defensive solidity and attacking caution

“Viking's defensive resilience combined with Tromso's uneven attack sets the stage for a low-scoring encounter, making Under 2.5 Goals a prudent selection for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Viking concede only 0.8 goals per game, indicating strong defense

Tromso average 2.2 goals conceded per game, showing defensive vulnerability

Both teams have moderate BTTS rates: Viking 60%, Tromso 80%

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.6, indicating a tendency for more open games historically.
  • However, recent tactical trends and defensive improvements by Viking suggest this fixture may deviate towards fewer goals, making Over 2.5 Goals a watch-only angle rather than a strong bet.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Viking3.4
Avg goals scored
Tromso1.6
Viking0.8
Avg goals conceded
Tromso2.2
Viking60%
BTTS rate
Tromso80%
Viking60%
Over 2.5 goals
Tromso40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 37% · edge +3.4 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 82%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams show moderate BTTS rates, with Viking at 60% and Tromso at 80%, indicating a reasonable chance both sides score. However, Viking's strong defense and Tromso's modest scoring average temper expectations for a high-scoring game, supporting a low total goals outcome.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Viking

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 2D 1L
17 Oct 2026H Fredrikstad3-2
09 Oct 2026A Brann2-0
20 Sep 2026H Lillestrom3-0
13 Sep 2026H Kristiansund BK8-1
04 Sep 2026A Sandefjord1-1

Tromso

DDWLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
18 Oct 2026H KFUM Oslo1-1
11 Oct 2026A Fredrikstad1-1
20 Sep 2026H Ham-Kam3-2
12 Sep 2026A Rosenborg3-5
06 Sep 2026A Kristiansund BK0-2
Best odds for this sectionViking to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 65% · edge +8.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Viking Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Tromso Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Tromso to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5
Check odds @ 5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Recent form data shows Viking accumulating 13 points with a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.8 goals per game, while Tromso has 5 points and concedes 2.2 goals on average. Viking's higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) contrasts with Tromso's 40%, indicating Viking's matches are more open but still defensively controlled, supporting a low-scoring prediction.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Viking to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Viking Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Tromso Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Tromso to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5
Check odds @ 5
The 40.4% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 37% implied by the current price (+3.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Viking and 40% for Tromso, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Viking Over 2.5
40%Tromso Over 2.5
3.6H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.6, indicating a tendency for more open games historically. However, recent tactical trends and defensive improvements by Viking suggest this fixture may deviate towards fewer goals, making Over 2.5 Goals a watch-only angle rather than a strong bet.

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