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Estoril crestEstoril
v
Moreirense crestMoreirense

Primeira Liga | Sun 25 Oct, 15:30

Estoril v Moreirense Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 00:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Estoril travel to face Moreirense in a tightly contested Primeira Liga fixture where both teams are under pressure to respond after recent poor runs. Moreirense have endured a seven-match winless streak and defensive frailties with no clean sheets in nine games, while Estoril arrive off three consecutive defeats but boast a potent attack led by Yanis Begraoui. The match promises high intensity and tactical battles, with Estoril's aggressive wide play and transition threat clashing against Moreirense's counter-attacking style. Both sides are fighting for a top-half finish, making this a high-stakes encounter with potential for multiple goals and momentum shifts.

BT4Y best bet

Estoril Win & Over 2.5 Goals

  • Moreirense have failed to keep a clean sheet in nine consecutive matches, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Estoril have scored 51 goals this season, averaging 12 shots per game, indicating strong attacking potential.
  • Last three meetings between these teams produced a total of 14 goals, showing a history of high-scoring encounters.
  • Estoril’s away record includes three wins in their last six matches, giving them an edge on the road.
  • Both teams have a high rate of matches with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, supporting an open, attacking game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Estoril Win & Over 2.5 Goals due to Estoril's superior attacking output, averaging 12.6 shots and 51 goals this season, compared to Moreirense's defensive struggles with nine straight matches without a clean sheet. The historical head-to-head data shows an average of 2.9 goals per game, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring match. Estoril's ability to create chances through wide play and set pieces combined with Moreirense's defensive fragility creates a strong case for both a home win and multiple goals. The current offer a positive with a confident 80% model certainty.

Estoril attacking volume12.6 shots per game, 51 goals this season
Strong positive
Moreirense defensive recordNo clean sheets in last 9 matches
Strong positive
Head-to-head goal average2.9 goals per match in last 10 meetings
Positive
Model confidence80% confidence in selection
Strong positive
Value edge17% model chance vs 11.1% implied (+5.9 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Estoril's potent attack, spearheaded by Yanis Begraoui, combined with Moreirense's ongoing defensive issues, makes an Estoril win with over 2.5 goals a compelling choice. The visitors' ability to create and convert chances contrasts with Moreirense's vulnerability at the back, suggesting a high-scoring game favoring Estoril's offensive edge.

Main risk

With their consistent first eleven and stronger attacking numbers, they look better equipped to create danger, but their own defending is far from trustworthy.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and player impact analysis

“Estoril's aggressive wide play and set-piece threat, led by Begraoui and Carvalho, should exploit Moreirense's defensive weaknesses, making a high-scoring Estoril victory the most plausible outcome in this tightly poised fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Estoril Win & Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Estoril have scored 51 goals this season, averaging 12 shots per game, indicating strong attacking potential.

Last three meetings between these teams produced a total of 14 goals, showing a history of high-scoring encounters.

Estoril’s away record includes three wins in their last six matches, giving them an edge on the road.

What To Watch In The Data

Estoril Win & Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last ten head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 2.9 goals, with recent encounters frequently ending in high-scoring draws.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting a trend towards open, attacking games with multiple goal opportunities, aligning well with the prediction of an Estoril win with over 2.5 goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Estoril0.6
Avg goals scored
Moreirense1
Estoril1.4
Avg goals conceded
Moreirense1.8
Estoril60%
BTTS rate
Moreirense60%
Estoril60%
Over 2.5 goals
Moreirense60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, with Moreirense failing to keep a clean sheet in nine matches and Estoril conceding regularly despite their attacking prowess. The last three meetings produced 14 goals, and both sides have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, indicating a strong likelihood of an open, goal-rich game.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickEstoril Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 66% · edge -20.8 pts
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Estoril to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 17% for Estoril Win & Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 11.1% implied by the current price (+5.9 pts). Cathro’s team are far more aggressive in the final third, reflected in their 51 goals scored.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Primeira Liga hubEstoril v Moreirense predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Estoril

LLLDL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 6L
10 Oct 2026A Academico Viseu1-2
20 Sep 2026H Casa Pia1-2
14 Sep 2026A SC Braga0-1
07 Sep 2026H Arouca0-0
31 Aug 2026A Benfica1-2

Moreirense

LDWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 4L
09 Oct 2026H GIL Vicente0-1
20 Sep 2026A Vitória SC1-1
14 Sep 2026H Maritimo3-1
09 Sep 2026H Benfica0-4
04 Sep 2026A FC Porto1-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 78% · edge -22.9 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Load more odds for this section
Estoril Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Estoril to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Estoril's recent form shows a dip with three consecutive defeats, but their overall attacking numbers remain strong, averaging 0.6 goals per game recently with a 60% over 2.5 goals rate. Moreirense's form is poorer, with a seven-match winless streak and 1 goal per game, reflecting their defensive struggles and inability to secure wins, reinforcing Estoril's advantage.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Estoril Over 2.5
60%Moreirense Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
The last ten head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 2.9 goals, with recent encounters frequently ending in high-scoring draws. Both teams have a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting a trend towards open, attacking games with multiple goal opportunities, aligning well with the prediction of an Estoril win with over 2.5 goals.

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