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Sarpsborg 08 FF crestSarpsborg 08 FF
v
Aalesund crestAalesund

Eliteserien | Sun 25 Oct, 16:00

Sarpsborg 08 FF v Aalesund Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund face off in an Eliteserien clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities shape expectations. Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring matches recently, with Sarpsborg 08 FF averaging 1.6 goals scored but conceding 2.2 per game, while Aalesund scores 2.2 and concedes 1.6. This fixture promises open play and goalmouth action, as both sides have been involved in games with multiple goals and share an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Tactical openness and the need for points add to the likelihood of a lively, goal-rich encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams have an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals this season.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF concedes an average of 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Aalesund scores 2.2 goals per game and averages 18.8 shots per match, showing attacking potency.
  • The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.6 goals, supporting a high-scoring trend.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund both average around 6.7 corners per game, reflecting attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 57.9% chance for over 3.5 goals, slightly above the market's implied 54.6%, indicating a modest . Both teams display attacking strengths and defensive weaknesses, with high shots on target and goal concession rates. The head-to-head average of 3.6 goals per match further supports the expectation of a goal-laden game. This combination of offensive firepower and defensive lapses underpins the model's in an over 3.5 goals outcome, making it a compelling selection with standard stake guidance.

Model Probability57.9% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+3.3 pts)
Positive
Market Implied Probability57.9% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+3.3 pts)
Neutral
Goal Scoring RatesSarpsborg 1.6, Aalesund 2.2 goals per game
Strong positive
Defensive ConcessionSarpsborg concedes 2.2, Aalesund concedes 1.6 per game
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.6 goals in last 10 meetings
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Aalesund both have shown defensive vulnerabilities and strong offensive output. The high average goals conceded and scored by both sides, combined with their recent form, suggest a match likely to exceed 3.5 goals. This bet aligns well with the tactical openness and goal threat each team presents.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking and defensive balance

“This fixture features two sides with attacking ambition but defensive fragility, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The statistical trends and player attacking profiles reinforce the likelihood of multiple goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals this season.

Sarpsborg 08 FF concedes an average of 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Aalesund scores 2.2 goals per game and averages 18.8 shots per match, showing attacking potency.

The last 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.6 goals, supporting a high-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches averaged 3.6 goals, a strong indicator of high-scoring encounters between these teams.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and season data, suggests a fast tempo and open play style conducive to over 2.5 goals, reinforcing the selection for over 3.5 goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sarpsborg 08 FF1.6
Avg goals scored
Aalesund2.2
Sarpsborg 08 FF2.2
Avg goals conceded
Aalesund1.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF80%
BTTS rate
Aalesund80%
Sarpsborg 08 FF80%
Over 2.5 goals
Aalesund80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 55% · edge +3.3 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and BTTS occurrences, reflecting their offensive strengths and defensive lapses. Sarpsborg 08 FF concedes heavily while Aalesund maintains a strong goal-scoring record, suggesting multiple goal-scoring opportunities for both sides in this fixture.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionAalesund Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Aalesund to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
4
Check odds @ 4
Sarpsborg 08 FF Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
The 57.9% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+3.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 80% for Aalesund, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sarpsborg 08 FF

LWLDD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
18 Oct 2026H Rosenborg0-3
11 Oct 2026A Aalesund4-2
18 Sep 2026H KFUM Oslo1-3
13 Sep 2026A Fredrikstad1-1
06 Sep 2026H Valerenga2-2

Aalesund

WLWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
17 Oct 2026A Kristiansund BK4-1
11 Oct 2026H Sarpsborg 08 FF2-4
19 Sep 2026A Molde2-1
13 Sep 2026A KFUM Oslo1-2
04 Sep 2026H Start2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Aalesund Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Aalesund to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
4
Check odds @ 4
Sarpsborg 08 FF Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Sarpsborg 08 FF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Recent form data shows both teams involved in high-scoring matches, with Sarpsborg 08 FF averaging 1.6 goals scored but conceding 2.2, and Aalesund scoring 2.2 while conceding 1.6. Both teams have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent games, reinforcing the expectation of a goal-rich encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Sarpsborg 08 FF Over 2.5
80%Aalesund Over 2.5
3.6H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches averaged 3.6 goals, a strong indicator of high-scoring encounters between these teams. This trend, combined with recent form and season data, suggests a fast tempo and open play style conducive to over 2.5 goals, reinforcing the selection for over 3.5 goals.

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