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Jagiellonia crestJagiellonia
v
Wisla Plock crestWisla Plock

Ekstraklasa | Sun 25 Oct, 13:45

Jagiellonia v Wisla Plock Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Ekstraklasa fixture features Jagiellonia hosting Wisla Plock in a contest where Wisla Plock arrives with stronger recent form and a tactical edge. Wisla Plock has accumulated 10 points from recent matches, showing more offensive efficiency with 1.4 goals per game compared to Jagiellonia's 0.8, who have struggled defensively conceding twice per game. The visitors' more balanced defense and sharper attack suggest they can exploit Jagiellonia's vulnerabilities. Both teams have shown mixed results in goal-scoring trends, adding an element of uncertainty but favoring Wisla Plock's momentum and tactical discipline.

BT4Y best bet

Wisla Plock to Win

  • Wisla Plock holds a 70% to win, indicating strong value at 3.25 .
  • Jagiellonia concedes an average of 2 goals per match, highlighting defensive frailty.
  • Wisla Plock averages 1.4 goals per game, outperforming Jagiellonia's 0.8 scoring rate.
  • Recent form favors Wisla Plock with 10 points versus Jagiellonia's 3 in recent matches.
  • Key players like S. Kuchko provide significant attacking threat for Wisla Plock.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Wisla Plock's superior recent form and more efficient attack underpin the model's 70% win probability, supported by their better defensive record conceding only 1 goal per game compared to Jagiellonia's 2. The visitors' ability to create and convert chances, led by players like S. Hamulić with 3.56 shots per 90 minutes, aligns with the value at 3.25 . Jagiellonia's defensive struggles and lower scoring output make them vulnerable, reinforcing Wisla Plock's chances. The data quality is solid, with no limitations affecting .

Recent formWisla Plock 10 points vs Jagiellonia 3
Strong positive
Goals scored per gameWisla Plock 1.4 vs Jagiellonia 0.8
Strong positive
Goals conceded per gameWisla Plock 1 vs Jagiellonia 2
Strong positive
Shots on target per 90S. Hamulić 1.67, G. Kuchko 3.21
Strong positive
Market odds vs model chance45.8% model chance vs 30.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Wisla Plock's recent form and attacking efficiency make them the tactical and statistical favorite in this match. Their ability to create quality chances and maintain defensive solidity contrasts with Jagiellonia's struggles, suggesting Wisla Plock can secure a valuable away win in this Ekstraklasa clash.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Wisla Plock's sharper attack and more consistent recent performances give them a clear edge over Jagiellonia, whose defensive issues are likely to be exploited in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Wisla Plock to Win evidence

Wisla Plock holds a 70% to win, indicating strong value at 3.25 .

Jagiellonia concedes an average of 2 goals per match, highlighting defensive frailty.

Wisla Plock averages 1.4 goals per game, outperforming Jagiellonia's 0.8 scoring rate.

Recent form favors Wisla Plock with 10 points versus Jagiellonia's 3 in recent matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Wisla Plock to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.5, indicating a relatively open fixture historically.
  • This trend suggests that an Over 2.5 goals outcome is plausible, driven by both teams' tendencies to concede and score, aligning with the attacking profiles and recent form data.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Jagiellonia0.8
Avg goals scored
Wisla Plock1.4
Jagiellonia2
Avg goals conceded
Wisla Plock1
Jagiellonia60%
BTTS rate
Wisla Plock40%
Jagiellonia60%
Over 2.5 goals
Wisla Plock40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 64% · edge +3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Goal trends show Wisla Plock scoring 1.4 goals per game with a 40% over 2.5 rate, while Jagiellonia scores less but has a 60% over 2.5 and BTTS rate. This suggests a moderately open game with potential for goals, but Wisla Plock's more efficient finishing could tip the balance in their favor.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Jagiellonia

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 6L
18 Oct 2026A Zaglebie Lubin0-1
10 Oct 2026H Gornik Zabrze1-3
20 Sep 2026H Legia Warszawa1-3
11 Sep 2026A Wisla Krakow0-2
06 Sep 2026H Slask Wroclaw2-1

Wisla Plock

WLWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
19 Oct 2026H Radomiak Radom1-0
09 Oct 2026A Wieczysta Kraków0-3
20 Sep 2026A Zaglebie Lubin2-0
13 Sep 2026H Cracovia Krakow3-1
07 Sep 2026A Pogon Szczecin1-1
Market aligned with main pickWisla Plock to WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Wisla Plock Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Wisla Plock's recent form is markedly stronger, securing 10 points compared to Jagiellonia's 3 in the same period. This momentum is reflected in their better goal difference and more consistent performances, suggesting and tactical cohesion that could influence the match outcome decisively.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWisla Plock to WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Load more odds for this section
Wisla Plock Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The 45.8% for Wisla Plock to Win sits against roughly 30.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Wisla Plock have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 3 for Jagiellonia.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Jagiellonia Over 2.5
40%Wisla Plock Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.5, indicating a relatively open fixture historically. This trend suggests that an Over 2.5 goals outcome is plausible, driven by both teams' tendencies to concede and score, aligning with the attacking profiles and recent form data.

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