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NEC Nijmegen crestNEC Nijmegen
v
Groningen crestGroningen

Eredivisie | Sun 25 Oct, 13:30

NEC Nijmegen v Groningen Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

NEC Nijmegen hosts Groningen in an Eredivisie clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Groningen ranks higher and boasts a stronger recent scoring record, averaging 2.6 goals per game, while NEC Nijmegen has struggled to find the net consistently but participates in high-scoring encounters. Both sides have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting an open game with offensive opportunities. This fixture promises end-to-end action with tactical openness and a likelihood of multiple goals given the teams' offensive tendencies and defensive lapses.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Groningen averages 2.6 goals per game, NEC Nijmegen 1.2, indicating attacking potential.
  • Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, signaling frequent high-scoring matches.
  • Average shots per game are high: NEC Nijmegen 14, Groningen 14.4, with Groningen having 5.4 shots on target per game.
  • Head-to-head matches average 3.3 goals, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 57.5% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, reflecting the attacking profiles and recent form of both teams. Groningen's potent offense, led by Nils Eggens with 1.73 goals per 90 minutes and high shot volume, combines with NEC Nijmegen's participation in open matches with defensive gaps. Both sides have high BTTS and Over 2.5 rates, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple goals. The price at 2.0 offers positive value given the model's edge of 7.5%.

Model Chance57.5% model chance vs 50% implied (+7.5 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance57.5% model chance vs 50% implied (+7.5 pts)
Positive
Value Edge57.5% model chance vs 50% implied (+7.5 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence Level66%
Positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rates80% for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with Groningen's attacking firepower and NEC Nijmegen's defensive vulnerabilities driving a high-scoring match. Groningen's key attackers have shown strong goal threat, while NEC's matches often feature multiple goals. This combination supports the Over 3.5 Goals selection as a compelling choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“Groningen's offensive dynamism combined with NEC Nijmegen's defensive fragility sets the stage for a goal-laden contest. The statistical indicators and player roles suggest a match where multiple scoring opportunities will arise, making Over 3.5 Goals a logical angle.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Groningen averages 2.6 goals per game, NEC Nijmegen 1.2, indicating attacking potential.

Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, signaling frequent high-scoring matches.

Average shots per game are high: NEC Nijmegen 14, Groningen 14.4, with Groningen having 5.4 shots on target per game.

Head-to-head matches average 3.3 goals, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.3, indicating a history of goal-rich encounters.
  • This trend, combined with recent form and attacking tendencies, points toward a match with a fast tempo and multiple scoring opportunities, aligning with Over 2.5 Goals trends.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

NEC Nijmegen1.2
Avg goals scored
Groningen2.6
NEC Nijmegen1.8
Avg goals conceded
Groningen1.8
NEC Nijmegen80%
BTTS rate
Groningen80%
NEC Nijmegen60%
Over 2.5 goals
Groningen80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 50% · edge +7.5 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 29%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both NEC Nijmegen and Groningen have high BTTS rates at 80%, indicating frequent mutual scoring. Groningen's average of 2.6 goals per game and NEC's participation in matches with multiple goals support a scenario where both teams find the net and the total goals exceed 3.5.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionGroningen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Groningen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
NEC Nijmegen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
The 57.5% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+7.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for NEC Nijmegen and 80% for Groningen, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

NEC Nijmegen

DDDLD
Last 50W 4D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 3L
18 Oct 2026H Fortuna Sittard2-2
10 Oct 2026A Ajax1-1
20 Sep 2026H GO Ahead Eagles1-1
12 Sep 2026A Cambuur0-3
08 Sep 2026H Excelsior2-2

Groningen

LWWDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 3L
18 Oct 2026H Ajax2-5
11 Oct 2026A Excelsior5-1
18 Sep 2026H PEC Zwolle3-0
12 Sep 2026A GO Ahead Eagles1-1
06 Sep 2026H Twente2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 79% vs implied 64% · edge +15 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Groningen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Groningen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
NEC Nijmegen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
NEC Nijmegen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Recent form data shows Groningen with 8 points and NEC Nijmegen with 4 points from their last matches, reflecting Groningen's stronger momentum. Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates (80% and 60%), indicating a trend toward high-scoring games recently, reinforcing the likelihood of Over 3.5 Goals in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%NEC Nijmegen Over 2.5
80%Groningen Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.3, indicating a history of goal-rich encounters. This trend, combined with recent form and attacking tendencies, points toward a match with a fast tempo and multiple scoring opportunities, aligning with Over 2.5 Goals trends.

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