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Club Brugge KV crestClub Brugge KV
v
St. Truiden crestSt. Truiden

Jupiler Pro League | Sun 25 Oct, 15:00

Club Brugge KV v St. Truiden Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 23:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Jupiler Pro League clash features second-placed Club Brugge KV hosting twelfth-placed St. Club Brugge KV boasts strong recent form with 21 points and a potent attack averaging 2.4 goals per game, while St. Truiden struggles with just 8 points and a leaky defense conceding 2.2 goals per match. Despite the disparity, St. Truiden's resilience and tactical adjustments under pressure provide a competitive edge, making this encounter unpredictable and ripe for an upset or a closely contested battle.

BT4Y best bet

St. Truiden Draw No Bet

  • Truiden offers strong value with a 42% versus 23.5% implied at 4.25.
  • Club Brugge KV dominates possession and shots but St. Truiden's defensive resilience limits clear-cut chances.
  • Truiden's key attacker S. Baždar has 5 goals and 1.6 shots on target per 90 minutes, posing a real threat.
  • Recent form shows Club Brugge KV averaging 2.4 goals but St. Truiden's defensive lapses could be exploited.
  • Head-to-head average of 3.5 goals suggests open play but St. Truiden's Draw No Bet mitigates risk.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies significant value in backing St. Truiden Draw No Bet at 4.25 , reflecting an 18.5% positive edge. Despite Club Brugge KV's superior form and attacking stats, St. Truiden's capacity to avoid defeat is supported by their key attacker S. Baždar's goal threat and the team's occasional resilience. The price underestimates St. Truiden's chance to at least draw, making this a compelling risk-adjusted selection. No data limitations affect , and the stake guidance remains standard.

Model Chance38.5% model chance vs 23.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance38.5% model chance vs 23.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge38.5% model chance vs 23.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence Level63
Positive
Data QualityComplete for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Truiden Draw No Bet offers a tactical hedge against Club Brugge KV's attacking control. Truiden's ability to absorb pressure and Baždar's goal threat provide a solid foundation for avoiding defeat. Data supports this as a smart selection given the price and match dynamics.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and player impact

“Truiden's resilience combined with Baždar's finishing ability makes the Draw No Bet a shrewd choice against a dominant Club Brugge KV side that can be vulnerable to counterattacks.”

Key Data Signals

St. Truiden Draw No Bet evidence

Truiden offers strong value with a 42% versus 23.5% implied at 4.25.

Club Brugge KV dominates possession and shots but St. Truiden's defensive resilience limits clear-cut chances.

Truiden's key attacker S. Baždar has 5 goals and 1.6 shots on target per 90 minutes, posing a real threat.

Recent form shows Club Brugge KV averaging 2.4 goals but St. Truiden's defensive lapses could be exploited.

What To Watch In The Data

St. Truiden Draw No Bet notes

  • Over the last ten matches between these teams, an average of 3.5 goals per game indicates a high-tempo encounter with attacking opportunities for both sides.
  • Club Brugge KV's 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent games contrasts with St.
  • Truiden's 60%, suggesting the match could see multiple goals but with St.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Club Brugge KV2.4
Avg goals scored
St. Truiden1.4
Club Brugge KV0.8
Avg goals conceded
St. Truiden2.2
Club Brugge KV60%
BTTS rate
St. Truiden20%
Club Brugge KV80%
Over 2.5 goals
St. Truiden60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 88% vs implied 91% · edge -2.9 pts
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The fixture shows a high average of 3.5 goals in the last 10 meetings, indicating open play and attacking intent. Club Brugge KV's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and 60% BTTS rate contrast with St. Truiden's more conservative 60% over 2.5 and 20% BTTS rates, suggesting that while goals are likely, St. Truiden may limit their own scoring but concede less frequently than expected. This dynamic supports a cautious approach to goal markets.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSt. Truiden Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.25
Check odds @ 4.25
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 72%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
St. Truiden to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Truiden Draw No Bet sits against roughly 23.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Club Brugge KV have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 3 for St.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Club Brugge KV

WWWWL
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 0D 1L
10 Oct 2026A RAAL La Louvière4-1
20 Sep 2026H Genk3-0
13 Sep 2026H Antwerp3-1
04 Sep 2026A Lommel United1-0
30 Aug 2026A Gent1-2

St. Truiden

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 4L
11 Oct 2026A KV Mechelen3-4
20 Sep 2026H KVC Westerlo0-2
12 Sep 2026A SK Beveren0-2
05 Sep 2026H RAAL La Louvière4-0
02 Sep 2026H Union St. Gilloise0-3
Market aligned with main pickSt. Truiden Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.25
Check odds @ 4.25
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%
3
Check odds @ 3
St. Truiden to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Recent form heavily favors Club Brugge KV, who have amassed 21 points and score 2.4 goals per game, showcasing consistent offensive output. Truiden's 8 points and 1.4 goals per match reflect struggles but also resilience in defense, conceding 2.2 goals on average. This contrast suggests Club Brugge KV will press for victory, but St. Truiden's form includes moments of defensive solidity, justifying the Draw No Bet selection as a safeguard against a narrow loss.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Club Brugge KV Over 2.5
60%St. Truiden Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches between these teams, an average of 3.5 goals per game indicates a high-tempo encounter with attacking opportunities for both sides. Club Brugge KV's 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent games contrasts with St. Truiden's 60%, suggesting the match could see multiple goals but with St. Truiden's defensive efforts potentially limiting the margin. This trend supports a lively game but cautions on expecting a runaway scoreline.

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