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Toulouse crestToulouse
v
Estac Troyes crestEstac Troyes

Ligue 1 | Sun 25 Oct, 16:15

Toulouse v Estac Troyes Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 00:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Toulouse hosts Estac Troyes in a Ligue 1 clash where Toulouse's recent form and tactical setup suggest a strong chance of victory. Toulouse has accumulated 9 points and sits 11th in the standings, showing more stability compared to Troyes, who are 17th with 4 points. Toulouse's attack, led by prolific players like C. Dønnum, has been effective, while Troyes struggles defensively, conceding an average of 3 goals per game. This match presents a clear opportunity for Toulouse to capitalize on their home advantage and Troyes' defensive vulnerabilities.

BT4Y best bet

Estac Troyes Asian Handicap +1

  • Toulouse holds a 74% to win, with positive value at 1.6 .
  • Toulouse averages 14.4 shots per game with 5.6 on target, indicating strong attacking pressure.
  • Estac Troyes concedes 3 goals per game on average, highlighting defensive weaknesses.
  • Toulouse ranks 11th with 9 points, while Troyes is 17th with 4 points, reflecting form disparity.
  • Over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of Toulouse's recent matches, suggesting an open game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Toulouse to win with a 74% chance, supported by their superior recent form and attacking efficiency. Toulouse's ability to generate shots and convert chances contrasts with Troyes' defensive frailties, conceding 3 goals per match. The home side's higher league position and points tally reinforce this edge. No price warning is needed as the offer positive value, making Toulouse to win a solid selection based on data and tactical context.

Model Chance51.8% model chance
Strong positive
Implied Chance vs Model51.8% model chance
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsToulouse 9 vs Troyes 4
Positive
Goals Conceded per GameToulouse 1.4 vs Troyes 3
Strong positive
Shots on Target per GameToulouse 5.6 vs Troyes 3.6
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Toulouse's home advantage combined with their superior attacking form and Troyes' defensive struggles makes them the likely winners. Toulouse's ability to create and convert chances, backed by their higher league standing, supports backing them to secure the three points in this fixture.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Toulouse's offensive consistency and Troyes' porous defense set the stage for a home win. Expect Toulouse to leverage their attacking talents and control the game tempo effectively.”

Key Data Signals

Estac Troyes Asian Handicap +1 evidence

Toulouse holds a 74% to win, with positive value at 1.6 .

Toulouse averages 14.4 shots per game with 5.6 on target, indicating strong attacking pressure.

Estac Troyes concedes 3 goals per game on average, highlighting defensive weaknesses.

Toulouse ranks 11th with 9 points, while Troyes is 17th with 4 points, reflecting form disparity.

What To Watch In The Data

Estac Troyes Asian Handicap +1 notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.6, indicating a moderately open game.
  • Combined with Toulouse's recent 80% over 2.5 goals rate, this trend suggests a match likely to feature multiple goals and attacking opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Toulouse2
Avg goals scored
Estac Troyes0.6
Toulouse1.4
Avg goals conceded
Estac Troyes3
Toulouse60%
BTTS rate
Estac Troyes40%
Toulouse80%
Over 2.5 goals
Estac Troyes40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 59% · edge +7.9 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Toulouse's matches have featured over 2.5 goals in 80% of recent games, while Troyes' defensive record contributes to an expectation of multiple goals. Both teams to score rates are moderate, but the attacking prowess of Toulouse combined with Troyes' conceding trend points to a high-scoring encounter.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickToulouse to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Toulouse Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The model rates Estac Troyes Asian Handicap +1 at 51.8% on the latest available numbers.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Toulouse

WDWDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 2L
16 Oct 2026A Le Mans3-0
10 Oct 2026A Monaco2-2
19 Sep 2026H Le Havre3-2
12 Sep 2026A Lorient2-2
03 Sep 2026H Lille0-1

Estac Troyes

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 5L
17 Oct 2026H Lens1-3
11 Oct 2026H Marseille0-2
19 Sep 2026A Angers0-2
13 Sep 2026A Lille0-2
06 Sep 2026H Strasbourg2-6
Market aligned with main pickToulouse to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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Toulouse Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Toulouse's recent form shows 8 points gained with a strong attacking output of 2 goals per game, contrasting with Troyes' 0 points and 0.6 goals scored. This form disparity underlines Toulouse's momentum and , reinforcing their likelihood to win this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Toulouse Over 2.5
40%Estac Troyes Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.6, indicating a moderately open game. Combined with Toulouse's recent 80% over 2.5 goals rate, this trend suggests a match likely to feature multiple goals and attacking opportunities.

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