Football Stats Hub

Fortuna Sittard crestFortuna Sittard
v
Excelsior crestExcelsior

Eredivisie | Sun 25 Oct, 11:15

Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fortuna Sittard hosts Excelsior in an Eredivisie clash where attacking intent is expected from both sides. Fortuna Sittard has shown a moderate scoring rate but concedes frequently, while Excelsior’s matches consistently feature multiple goals, reflecting their open style and defensive vulnerabilities. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, with Excelsior especially prone to conceding and scoring goals. This fixture promises an open contest with offensive players from both teams likely to influence the scoreline, making goal markets particularly relevant.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Excelsior’s matches have featured Over 2.5 Goals 100% of the time this season.
  • Fortuna Sittard concedes an average of 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Both teams have an 80% rate of Both Teams To Score in recent matches.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.25 over the last 8 meetings, supporting a high-scoring game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 78% chance to Over 2.5 Goals, well above the implied market probability of 62.5%, indicating strong value. Both teams have shown attacking tendencies and defensive weaknesses, with Excelsior’s matches always exceeding 2.5 goals this season. Fortuna Sittard’s average shots and shots on target also support sustained offensive pressure. The combination of recent form, head-to-head goal averages, and attacking player profiles underpins the in a high-scoring encounter. No data limitations or price warnings affect this selection.

Model Chance77.5% model chance vs 62.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance77.5% model chance vs 62.5% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge77.5% model chance vs 62.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Excelsior Over 2.5 Rate100%
Strong positive
Fortuna Sittard Defensive Record2 goals conceded per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both teams pushing forward, as Fortuna Sittard’s defensive vulnerabilities and Excelsior’s attacking consistency suggest multiple goals. The high average goals in their recent meetings and current form data reinforce the likelihood of a lively, goal-rich match.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive weaknesses

“This fixture’s attacking profiles and recent goal trends make Over 2.5 Goals a compelling choice, with Excelsior’s matches consistently delivering high scores and Fortuna Sittard’s defense prone to lapses.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Excelsior’s matches have featured Over 2.5 Goals 100% of the time this season.

Fortuna Sittard concedes an average of 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Both teams have an 80% rate of Both Teams To Score in recent matches.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.25 over the last 8 meetings, supporting a high-scoring game.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3.25, well above 2.5.
  • This trend, combined with recent form data from the current season, suggests a sustained tempo and attacking openness that favors a high-scoring match outcome.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fortuna Sittard

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Fortuna Sittard yet.

Excelsior

LLDLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 4L
16 Oct 2026A Heerenveen0-4
11 Oct 2026H Groningen1-5
19 Sep 2026A Ajax2-2
13 Sep 2026H Utrecht1-2
08 Sep 2026A NEC Nijmegen2-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 71% · edge -5 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Fortuna Sittard to WinBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Fortuna Sittard Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Excelsior to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Excelsior Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Fortuna Sittard has scored 1.6 goals per game but concedes 2, while Excelsior scores 1.2 and concedes 3 per game. Excelsior’s perfect Over 2.5 record and both teams’ high BTTS rates reflect recent matches trending towards multiple goals, reinforcing the likelihood of an open, high-scoring fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fortuna Sittard-
Avg goals scored
Excelsior1.2
Fortuna Sittard-
Avg goals conceded
Excelsior3
Fortuna Sittard-
BTTS rate
Excelsior80%
Fortuna Sittard-
Over 2.5 goals
Excelsior100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 63% · edge +15 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 26%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Both teams have an 80% Both Teams To Score rate recently, and Excelsior’s matches always exceed 2.5 goals this season. Fortuna Sittard’s moderate scoring combined with defensive concessions suggests multiple goal events from both sides, supporting an open, goal-rich encounter.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 63% · edge +15 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Fortuna Sittard to WinBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Fortuna Sittard Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Excelsior to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Excelsior Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The 77.5% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 62.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts).
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Fortuna Sittard Over 2.5
100%Excelsior Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3.25, well above 2.5. This trend, combined with recent form data from the current season, suggests a sustained tempo and attacking openness that favors a high-scoring match outcome.

Loading deeper match data…