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v
Lille crestLille

Ligue 1 | Sun 25 Oct, 14:00

Monaco v Lille Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 23:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Monaco and Lille meet in a Ligue 1 clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Monaco, ranked 5th, have scored 1.4 goals per game recently while conceding 1.2, reflecting an open style. Lille, just above in 4th place, maintain a tighter defense conceding only 0.6 goals per game but still average 1.2 goals scored. Recent form data shows Monaco's matches feature goals at both ends 80% of the time, while Lille's matches have been less frequent for BTTS but still competitive. This fixture promises tactical battles with offensive threats from both sides, setting the stage for goals from each team.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Monaco's recent matches have an 80% BTTS rate, indicating frequent goals at both ends.
  • Lille concedes only 0.6 goals per game, but still scores 1.2, supporting BTTS chances.
  • Both teams rank closely in Ligue 1 standings, suggesting a competitive match.
  • Monaco averages 11.2 shots per game with 3.8 on target, Lille 13.2 shots with 5.2 on target.
  • H2H average goals stand at 2.2 over the last 10 meetings, supporting goal-scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at a strong 73.3% chance, well above the implied market chance of 58.8%, indicating clear value. Monaco's high BTTS rate of 80% combined with Lille's solid offensive output and defensive concessions create a favorable environment for goals at both ends. The attacking roles of Paris Josua Brunner and F. Balogun for Monaco, alongside Lille's offensive players like E. Giroud, enhance scoring opportunities. The recent form and shot data confirm an open game likely to see both teams find the net.

Monaco BTTS Rate80%
Strong positive
Lille Goals Conceded per Game0.6
Neutral
Model Chance vs Market73.3% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+14.5 pts)
Strong positive
Shot Volume and AccuracyMonaco 11.2 shots, Lille 13.2 shots
Positive
H2H Average Goals2.2 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Monaco and Lille possess attacking quality and have shown tendencies to concede goals, making Both Teams to Score a compelling pick. Monaco's offensive players like Paris Josua Brunner and F. Balogun create sustained pressure, while Lille's attackers, including E. Giroud, provide consistent goal threats. The recent form data and competitive league positions suggest an open game with goals at both ends.

Main risk

Last weekend's 1-1 draw against Brest highlighted their attacking limitations, however.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score rationale

“Monaco's attacking trio and Lille's balanced offense versus defense dynamic set up a fixture where both sides are likely to score. The data supports an open game with chances for each team to find the net.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Monaco's recent matches have an 80% BTTS rate, indicating frequent goals at both ends.

Lille concedes only 0.6 goals per game, but still scores 1.2, supporting BTTS chances.

Both teams rank closely in Ligue 1 standings, suggesting a competitive match.

Monaco averages 11.2 shots per game with 3.8 on target, Lille 13.2 shots with 5.2 on target.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.2, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Monaco's recent 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Lille's 20%, suggesting Monaco drives the tempo and goal volume.
  • This trend supports a game with attacking intent and goal-scoring opportunities for both sides, consistent with the BTTS outlook.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Monaco1.4
Avg goals scored
Lille1.2
Monaco1.2
Avg goals conceded
Lille0.6
Monaco80%
BTTS rate
Lille40%
Monaco60%
Over 2.5 goals
Lille20%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 59% · edge +14.5 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 23%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Monaco's matches have featured BTTS in 80% of recent games, driven by their 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Lille, while conceding less at 0.6 goals per game, still average 1.2 goals scored, supporting the potential for goals at both ends. The H2H average of 2.2 goals per game further confirms a history of open contests between these teams.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 59% · edge +14.5 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Lille Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Lille to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Monaco Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The 73.3% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+14.5 pts). Monaco show a 80% BTTS rate and Lille show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Ligue 1 fixtures and predictionsMonaco v Lille predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Monaco

LDWDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 1L
18 Oct 2026A Lorient0-1
10 Oct 2026H Toulouse2-2
18 Sep 2026H Lens2-1
12 Sep 2026A Strasbourg1-1
04 Sep 2026A Paris Saint Germain2-1

Lille

DWLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 1L
17 Oct 2026H Stade Brestois 291-1
10 Oct 2026H Le Havre1-0
20 Sep 2026A Nice1-2
13 Sep 2026H Estac Troyes2-0
03 Sep 2026A Toulouse1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Lille Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Lille to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Monaco Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Monaco to WinBetfred guide price · model 33%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Recent form data shows Monaco earning 8 points with a strong BTTS rate of 80%, reflecting open games with goals at both ends. Lille has collected 10 points, conceding fewer goals but still scoring regularly. Monaco's higher over 2.5 goals rate of 60% contrasts with Lille's 20%, suggesting Monaco's matches tend to be more open and goal-rich, supporting the BTTS selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Monaco Over 2.5
20%Lille Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.2, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Monaco's recent 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Lille's 20%, suggesting Monaco drives the tempo and goal volume. This trend supports a game with attacking intent and goal-scoring opportunities for both sides, consistent with the BTTS outlook.

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