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Sabadell crestSabadell
v
Tenerife crestTenerife

Segunda División | Sun 25 Oct, 13:00

Sabadell v Tenerife Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sabadell hosts Tenerife in a Segunda División clash where recent form and tactical setups suggest a competitive encounter. Sabadell has shown more defensive solidity, conceding fewer goals per game than Tenerife, who have struggled defensively with a higher goals-against average. Both teams have similar attacking outputs, but Sabadell's home advantage and slightly better recent points tally position them as favorites. Tenerife's offensive threat is notable but inconsistent, making this a match where Sabadell's structured approach could secure a vital home victory.

BT4Y best bet

Sabadell to Win

  • Sabadell has a 72.6% to win, with offering positive value at 1.91.
  • Sabadell concedes fewer goals per game (0.8) compared to Tenerife's 2.2, indicating stronger defensive form.
  • Tenerife's BTTS rate is 80%, but Sabadell's defensive discipline could limit scoring.
  • Sabadell averages more shots (12.6) and corners (5.6) than Tenerife, suggesting territorial control.
  • Recent form shows Sabadell with 8 points from last matches versus Tenerife's 3, highlighting momentum advantage.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sabadell to win based on a combination of stronger defensive metrics, better recent form, and home advantage. Sabadell's lower goals conceded per game and higher shot volume indicate control and efficiency in attack and defense. Tenerife's defensive vulnerabilities and lower points accumulation recently reduce their chances. The price reflects positive value, with the significantly higher than the implied , making Sabadell a compelling pick. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Defensive StrengthSabadell concedes 0.8 goals per game vs Tenerife's 2.2
Strong positive
Recent FormSabadell earned 8 points recently vs Tenerife's 3
Strong positive
Home AdvantageSabadell ranked 10th with 16 points at home
Positive
Shot VolumeSabadell averages 12.6 shots per game vs Tenerife's 11
Positive
Price Value67.4% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sabadell's recent form and defensive resilience make them the logical choice for victory in this Segunda División fixture. Their ability to limit Tenerife's scoring chances, combined with superior home performances, underpins this pick. Tenerife's defensive struggles and inconsistent attack further tilt the balance towards Sabadell securing three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Sabadell's disciplined defense and home momentum create a strong foundation for a win, especially against a Tenerife side that concedes frequently and lacks recent form consistency.”

Key Data Signals

Sabadell to Win evidence

Sabadell has a 72.6% to win, with offering positive value at 1.91.

Sabadell concedes fewer goals per game (0.8) compared to Tenerife's 2.2, indicating stronger defensive form.

Tenerife's BTTS rate is 80%, but Sabadell's defensive discipline could limit scoring.

Sabadell averages more shots (12.6) and corners (5.6) than Tenerife, suggesting territorial control.

What To Watch In The Data

Sabadell to Win notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 2.5 per game, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of matches finishing over 2.5 goals this season, suggesting a balanced tempo with potential for controlled attacking play rather than high-scoring affairs.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sabadell1.2
Avg goals scored
Tenerife1
Sabadell0.8
Avg goals conceded
Tenerife2.2
Sabadell60%
BTTS rate
Tenerife80%
Sabadell40%
Over 2.5 goals
Tenerife40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 23%
5
Check odds @ 5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Despite Tenerife's 80% BTTS rate, Sabadell's stronger defensive record and lower goals conceded per game suggest a controlled scoring environment. The likelihood of both teams scoring is reduced by Sabadell's ability to limit chances, pointing towards a lower BTTS probability in this match.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sabadell

LWDDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
18 Oct 2026A Burgos0-1
10 Oct 2026A AD Ceuta FC2-1
04 Oct 2026H FC Andorra0-0
26 Sep 2026A Celta de Vigo II1-1
20 Sep 2026H Oviedo3-1

Tenerife

DDLDL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
19 Oct 2026A Celta de Vigo II1-1
12 Oct 2026H Girona1-1
05 Oct 2026A Cordoba2-3
26 Sep 2026H Cadiz1-1
19 Sep 2026A Castellón0-5
Market aligned with main pickSabadell to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Sabadell Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Sabadell's recent accumulation of 8 points compared to Tenerife's 3 highlights a clear momentum advantage. Sabadell's ability to score 1.2 goals per game while conceding only 0.8 contrasts with Tenerife's defensive struggles, conceding 2.2 goals per game. This form disparity underpins Sabadell's favored status.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSabadell to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Sabadell Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
The 67.4% for Sabadell to Win sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Sabadell have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Tenerife.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Sabadell Over 2.5
40%Tenerife Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored were 2.5 per game, indicating moderate scoring. Both teams have a 40% rate of matches finishing over 2.5 goals this season, suggesting a balanced tempo with potential for controlled attacking play rather than high-scoring affairs.

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