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Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace
v
Newcastle crestNewcastle

Premier League | Sun 25 Oct, 14:00

Crystal Palace v Newcastle Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 23:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Crystal Palace return to Selhurst Park with strong momentum, unbeaten in their last five home matches and boasting consecutive clean sheets. Managed by Oliver Glasner, they have developed a resilient defensive structure that makes them tough to break down. Newcastle arrive needing a response after recent setbacks, carrying a potent attack with 44 league goals but a vulnerable defense that has conceded 45. The tactical battle will hinge on Palace's quick counter-attacks exploiting Newcastle's defensive frailties, while Newcastle's set-piece threat and midfield control offer them scoring opportunities. This clash promises intensity and goal action as both teams seek to assert control in the Premier League.

BT4Y best bet

Crystal Palace Win & Over 2.5 Goals

  • Crystal Palace unbeaten in five home games with clean sheets in all.
  • Newcastle have scored 44 goals but conceded 45, showing defensive vulnerability.
  • Palace's quick counter-attacks target Newcastle's weak transition defense.
  • Newcastle strong on set pieces, a key threat against Palace's defensive weakness.
  • Recent form and tactical setups suggest a high-scoring, competitive match.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Crystal Palace to win with over 2.5 goals due to their solid home defensive record combined with Newcastle's high offensive volume and defensive lapses. Palace's five-game clean sheet streak at home under Glasner provides a strong foundation, while Newcastle's average of 13.2 shots per game and set-piece prowess increase the likelihood of multiple goals. The model's 39% chance for this outcome, significantly higher than the implied 15.4% , indicates clear value. The blend of Palace's momentum and Newcastle's attacking threat supports a dynamic, goal-filled contest. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Palace Home Defensive Form5 consecutive clean sheets at home
Strong positive
Newcastle Offensive Volume13.2 shots per game
Strong positive
Newcastle Defensive Weakness45 goals conceded this season
Positive
Model Probability vs Odds39% model chance vs 11.8% implied (+27.2 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormPalace unbeaten in 8 of last 9 matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Crystal Palace's defensive solidity at Selhurst Park combined with their effective counter-attacking style makes them a strong candidate for victory. Newcastle's defensive vulnerabilities and Palace's momentum provide a solid data foundation for expecting a Palace win with multiple goals scored in this fixture.

Main risk

The visitors have struggled heavily on the road, but Palace’s backline offers the perfect opportunity for Matthias Jaissle’s side to score multiple times.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based analysis

“Crystal Palace's recent home form under Glasner shows a team that is difficult to break down and lethal on counters, while Newcastle's attacking firepower and set-piece threat ensure this will be an open, high-scoring encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Crystal Palace Win & Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Crystal Palace unbeaten in five home games with clean sheets in all.

Newcastle have scored 44 goals but conceded 45, showing defensive vulnerability.

Palace's quick counter-attacks target Newcastle's weak transition defense.

Newcastle strong on set pieces, a key threat against Palace's defensive weakness.

What To Watch In The Data

Crystal Palace Win & Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last ten meetings between these teams, the average goals per match is 1.9, suggesting a moderate scoring trend.
  • However, recent form and tactical setups indicate a shift towards more open play with higher goal potential.
  • Both teams have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches, pointing to a trend of increased tempo and attacking intent that could push this fixture towards a goal-rich outcome.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Crystal Palace1.6
Avg goals scored
Newcastle1.2
Crystal Palace2.2
Avg goals conceded
Newcastle2.4
Crystal Palace60%
BTTS rate
Newcastle80%
Crystal Palace80%
Over 2.5 goals
Newcastle80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 83%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams present contrasting goal profiles: Palace's recent home clean sheets highlight defensive strength, while Newcastle's 44 goals and 80% over 2.5 goals rate indicate a high-scoring potential. Newcastle's set-piece efficiency and Palace's counter-attacking speed create scenarios for goals at both ends, supporting a BTTS and over 2.5 goals outcome in this match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCrystal Palace Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Crystal Palace to WinBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The 39% for Crystal Palace Win & Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 11.8% implied by the current price (+27.2 pts). Newcastle have also struggled to maintain their attacking output, scoring just four goals across their last four fixtures.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Crystal Palace

LWDLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 4L
18 Oct 2026A Brighton0-5
11 Oct 2026H Nottingham Forest3-1
20 Sep 2026A Leeds0-0
12 Sep 2026H Ipswich2-3
05 Sep 2026A Fulham3-2

Newcastle

LLWLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
17 Oct 2026H Aston Villa0-1
12 Oct 2026A Coventry1-4
19 Sep 2026H Hull City2-1
14 Sep 2026A Leeds1-4
05 Sep 2026H Bournemouth2-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 79% vs implied 64% · edge +15 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Crystal Palace Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Crystal Palace to WinBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Crystal Palace's recent form is impressive, with 7 points from their last matches and an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting their attacking efficiency and defensive solidity at home. Newcastle's form shows slightly less output with 4 points and a similar over 2.5 goals rate, indicating their matches tend to be open and goal-rich. Palace's higher goals for per game and better defensive record at home provide them with a momentum advantage going into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Crystal Palace Over 2.5
80%Newcastle Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings between these teams, the average goals per match is 1.9, suggesting a moderate scoring trend. However, recent form and tactical setups indicate a shift towards more open play with higher goal potential. Both teams have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches, pointing to a trend of increased tempo and attacking intent that could push this fixture towards a goal-rich outcome.

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