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1899 Hoffenheim crest1899 Hoffenheim
v
Bayer Leverkusen crestBayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga | Sun 25 Oct, 14:30

1899 Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 23:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Bundesliga clash features 1899 Hoffenheim hosting Bayer Leverkusen in a fixture poised for attacking intensity. Hoffenheim have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game, while Leverkusen boast a potent offense scoring 2.8 goals per match. Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring encounters recently, with Hoffenheim hitting over 2.5 goals in all their recent games and Leverkusen doing so in 80% of theirs. The match promises open play and goalmouth action, with both sides eager to capitalize on defensive vulnerabilities and maintain their momentum in the league.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Hoffenheim’s last matches all featured over 2.5 goals (100% rate).
  • Leverkusen score 2.8 goals per game on average, indicating strong attack.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.8 over the last 10 meetings.
  • Both teams average high shots on target per game: Hoffenheim 5.6, Leverkusen 6.6.
  • Leverkusen’s top attackers like P. Boniface contribute heavily to shot volume and goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 58% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, reflecting the attacking strengths and defensive frailties of both teams. Hoffenheim’s 100% over 2.5 goals rate and Leverkusen’s 80% rate underline a pattern of high-scoring games. The head-to-head average of 3.8 goals further supports this. The price at 1.91 offers a small positive , making this an attractive bet for those expecting an open, goal-rich encounter. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Hoffenheim Over 2.5 Goals Rate100% recent matches
Strong positive
Leverkusen Goals Per Game2.8 average
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.8 goals last 10 matches
Positive
Shots on TargetHoffenheim 5.6, Leverkusen 6.6 per game
Positive
Price vs Model Chance58% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+5.6 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both sides pushing forward aggressively. Hoffenheim’s defensive struggles combined with Leverkusen’s prolific attack create a strong environment for multiple goals. The data shows consistent high scoring in recent matches and head-to-head history, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · attacking potential and defensive weakness

“Leverkusen’s attacking firepower paired with Hoffenheim’s defensive vulnerabilities sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The volume of shots and goal threat from key players like Schick and Boniface suggest goals will flow in this Bundesliga fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Hoffenheim’s last matches all featured over 2.5 goals (100% rate).

Leverkusen score 2.8 goals per game on average, indicating strong attack.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.8 over the last 10 meetings.

Both teams average high shots on target per game: Hoffenheim 5.6, Leverkusen 6.6.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.8, indicating a trend towards open, high-scoring games.
  • This sample, combined with recent form, suggests a fast tempo and attacking openness that favors Over 2.5 Goals and by extension supports the Over 3.5 Goals pick.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

1899 Hoffenheim1.8
Avg goals scored
Bayer Leverkusen2.8
1899 Hoffenheim2.2
Avg goals conceded
Bayer Leverkusen1.2
1899 Hoffenheim100%
BTTS rate
Bayer Leverkusen60%
1899 Hoffenheim100%
Over 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 52% · edge +5.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams have shown strong scoring and conceding patterns, with Hoffenheim’s matches all exceeding 2.5 goals recently and Leverkusen also frequently involved in high-scoring games. The head-to-head average of 3.8 goals supports expectations of multiple goals and a likely BTTS scenario.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Bayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
1899 Hoffenheim Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
1899 Hoffenheim to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+5.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 80% for Bayer Leverkusen, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

1899 Hoffenheim

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 4L
18 Oct 2026A Borussia Mönchengladbach2-1
10 Oct 2026H Hamburger SV2-3
20 Sep 2026A SC Paderborn 071-3
12 Sep 2026H VfB Stuttgart2-1
05 Sep 2026H Borussia Dortmund2-3

Bayer Leverkusen

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 1L
18 Oct 2026H SC Freiburg2-1
10 Oct 2026A FSV Mainz 054-3
20 Sep 2026H RB Leipzig2-0
12 Sep 2026A FC Augsburg2-2
05 Sep 2026H Union Berlin4-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 71% · edge +12.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Bayer Leverkusen Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Bayer Leverkusen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
1899 Hoffenheim Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
1899 Hoffenheim to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Recent form data highlights Hoffenheim’s consistent involvement in high-scoring matches, with a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, while Leverkusen maintains an 80% rate. Both teams have scored and conceded frequently, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal-laden game in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%1899 Hoffenheim Over 2.5
80%Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5
3.8H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.8, indicating a trend towards open, high-scoring games. This sample, combined with recent form, suggests a fast tempo and attacking openness that favors Over 2.5 Goals and by extension supports the Over 3.5 Goals pick.

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