Genoa
VeneziaSerie A | Sun 25 Oct, 14:00
Genoa v Venezia Stats
Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 23:12 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
Genoa and Venezia meet in a Serie A clash where both teams are struggling near the bottom of the table, with Genoa sitting 17th and Venezia 20th. Recent form shows tight defensive records but a propensity for physical encounters, as both sides have conceded over two goals per game on average. The match is expected to be intense and competitive, with tactical discipline tested and aggression likely to rise given the stakes of climbing out of the relegation zone. This sets the stage for a high-card count contest under pressure.
Over 4.5 Cards
- Both teams average 3.2 yellow cards per game, indicating frequent fouling and disciplinary action.
- Recent matches show a combined average of over 4.5 cards, reflecting physical play and tactical fouling.
- Key players like Toni Fernández and S. Sabelli have high card risk indexes, increasing card likelihood.
- The match stakes and league positions suggest aggressive play and heightened tension on the pitch.
Why The Model Likes This Bet
Chance, price and football numbers
The model identifies a 68% chance of over 4.5 cards, well above the implied 52.4% chance from the , indicating strong value. Both Genoa and Venezia average 3.2 yellow cards per game, with several players showing high card risk, such as Toni Fernández and Sabelli. The competitive nature of this relegation battle and recent disciplinary trends support a high-card count. No data limitations or price warnings reduce , making this a solid pick for standard stakes.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
Expect a fiercely contested match with both Genoa and Venezia pushing hard to improve their league standing. The aggressive defensive styles and high card risk players suggest a game ripe for multiple cautions. This bet aligns well with the tactical intensity and disciplinary patterns seen recently in Serie A matches involving these teams.
However, Genoa's formidable home record against Venezia contrasts sharply with the visitors' prolonged struggles on the road.
Quote from Expert
BT4Y analyst view · cards market
“This fixture’s relegation pressure and player card profiles make over 4.5 cards a compelling angle, as both sides rely on physicality and tactical fouling to disrupt opponents.”
Key Data Signals
Over 4.5 Cards evidence
Both teams average 3.2 yellow cards per game, indicating frequent fouling and disciplinary action.
Recent matches show a combined average of over 4.5 cards, reflecting physical play and tactical fouling.
Key players like Toni Fernández and S. Sabelli have high card risk indexes, increasing card likelihood.
The match stakes and league positions suggest aggressive play and heightened tension on the pitch.
What To Watch In The Data
Over 4.5 Cards notes
- In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.38, indicating open games that can escalate physicality.
- Over the last five matches for both teams, the tempo and defensive lapses have contributed to frequent fouls and cards, supporting the over 2.5 goals trend alongside high card counts.
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
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Market odds
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Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Genoa
Venezia
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Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
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