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Auxerre crestAuxerre
v
Le Mans crestLe Mans

Ligue 1 | Sun 25 Oct, 16:15

Auxerre v Le Mans Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 00:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Auxerre and Le Mans meet in a Ligue 1 clash where both sides have shown a tendency for open, attacking play. Auxerre has averaged 1.6 goals scored per game but concedes 1.8, while Le Mans scores 1.2 and concedes 2.0, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently, suggesting a high-scoring encounter. Auxerre's slightly better recent form and home advantage set the stage for a lively contest with multiple goal-scoring opportunities likely.

BT4Y match pick

Le Mans Asian Handicap +0.5

  • Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.
  • Auxerre averages 11 shots and 5 shots on target per game, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Le Mans concedes 2 goals per game on average, showing defensive fragility.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 2.8 goals, supporting a goal-rich game.
  • Key Auxerre attackers like C. Labeau Lascary have strong shot volumes and accuracy.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76.6% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, well above the implied market chance of 57.8%, indicating clear value. Both teams have high recent Over 2.5 rates (80%), with Auxerre's attacking players generating significant shot volume and Le Mans showing defensive weaknesses. The average goals in recent head-to-heads (2.8) further support a high-scoring match. No data limitations or price warnings reduce , making this a strong statistical and tactical case for Over 2.5 Goals.

Model Probability54.2% model chance vs 55.6% implied (-1.4 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate80% for both teams
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Goals2.8 average goals in last 5 matches
Positive
Shot VolumeAuxerre averages 11 shots, Le Mans 10.8
Positive
Defensive WeaknessLe Mans concedes 2 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both Auxerre and Le Mans pushing forward aggressively. Auxerre's attacking players, supported by strong shot and key pass numbers, should create multiple chances. Le Mans' defensive record suggests they may concede multiple goals, making Over 2.5 Goals a sensible selection based on form and player influence.

Main risk

The primary risk to this specific scoreline lies in the broader goal totals both sides frequently produce.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“This fixture features two sides with attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling choice. Auxerre's creative midfielders and Le Mans' goal threat combine to suggest a lively, goal-filled encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Le Mans Asian Handicap +0.5 evidence

Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.

Auxerre averages 11 shots and 5 shots on target per game, indicating offensive pressure.

Le Mans concedes 2 goals per game on average, showing defensive fragility.

Recent head-to-head matches average 2.8 goals, supporting a goal-rich game.

What To Watch In The Data

Le Mans Asian Handicap +0.5 notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, with their head-to-head average goals at 2.8.
  • This trend reflects a pattern of open games with multiple scoring chances, driven by attacking tempo and defensive gaps, supporting the likelihood of a goal-rich fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Auxerre1.6
Avg goals scored
Le Mans1.2
Auxerre1.8
Avg goals conceded
Le Mans2
Auxerre80%
BTTS rate
Le Mans80%
Auxerre80%
Over 2.5 goals
Le Mans80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, with matches frequently featuring goals from both sides. The average 2.8 goals in their last five meetings underline the likelihood of multiple scoring events and BTTS scenarios in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Auxerre to WinBet365 guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Auxerre Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Le Mans Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The 54.2% for Le Mans Asian Handicap +0.5 sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (-1.4 pts). Le Mans' consistent away scoring and Auxerre's defensive frailties support a positive result for the visitors with the +0.5 handicap.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Auxerre

WLWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 4L
18 Oct 2026A Le Havre3-1
11 Oct 2026A Rennes1-4
20 Sep 2026H Stade Brestois 292-1
12 Sep 2026H Nice1-0
04 Sep 2026A Lyon1-3

Le Mans

LLWDD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 3L
16 Oct 2026H Toulouse0-3
10 Oct 2026A Paris Saint Germain1-3
19 Sep 2026H Lorient2-1
13 Sep 2026H Lens2-2
05 Sep 2026A Nice1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 77% · edge +9.1 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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Auxerre to WinBet365 guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Auxerre Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Le Mans Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Le Mans to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Auxerre has collected 9 points with an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, scoring 1.6 goals per game but conceding 1.8, reflecting open matches. Le Mans, with 5 points and the same Over 2.5 rate, concedes 2 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailty. This recent form data supports expectations of a high-scoring encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Auxerre Over 2.5
80%Le Mans Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, with their head-to-head average goals at 2.8. This trend reflects a pattern of open games with multiple scoring chances, driven by attacking tempo and defensive gaps, supporting the likelihood of a goal-rich fixture.

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