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Forli crestForli
v
Pianese crestPianese

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 25 Oct, 13:30

Forli v Pianese Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Forli and Pianese meet in Serie C - Girone B with both teams struggling near the lower end of the table, separated by just three points. Recent form shows low-scoring matches, with Forli scoring only once in their last three games and conceding slightly more than one goal per match. Pianese also averages one goal scored and conceded per game recently. Both teams tend to play cautiously, reflecting their league positions and the need to avoid defeat in this tightly contested fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Forli and Pianese have low recent goal outputs, averaging around 1 goal scored per match each.
  • Both teams concede roughly 1 to 1.4 goals per game, indicating tight defensive setups.
  • Forli's matches go over 2.5 goals only 20% of the time, Pianese 40%, suggesting low-scoring tendencies.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 2.5 goals, supporting a modest scoring expectation.
  • Both teams have a high BTTS no rate, especially Forli at 80%, indicating matches often end with one or no team scoring.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 64.8% chance, reflecting the defensive solidity and low scoring trends of both teams. Forli's low over 2.5 goals rate (20%) and Pianese's moderate 40% rate, combined with recent matches averaging just over one goal each, support a cautious game likely to stay under three goals. The head-to-head average of 2.5 goals further underlines a balanced contest with limited goal-scoring opportunities. The current offer positive value with no price warnings, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection.

Model Probability64.8% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+6 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goal ScoringLow goals for and against for both teams
Positive
Head-to-Head GoalsAverage 2.5 goals in last 2 meetings
Neutral
Over 2.5 Goals RateForli 20%, Pianese 40%
Positive
Price Value64.8% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+6 pts)
Strong positive
Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical defensive emphasis and low scoring trends

“This fixture is set for a tactical battle with both teams prioritizing defensive organization over attacking risk, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible expectation based on their recent performances and league context.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Forli and Pianese have low recent goal outputs, averaging around 1 goal scored per match each.

Both teams concede roughly 1 to 1.4 goals per game, indicating tight defensive setups.

Head-to-head meetings average 2.5 goals, supporting a modest scoring expectation.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last two head-to-head matches averaged 2.5 goals, indicating a moderate scoring trend.
  • Over the recent matches, Forli's low over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Pianese's higher rate, but overall the trend suggests a game with controlled tempo and limited goal-scoring chances, consistent with an Under 2.5 Goals scenario.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Forli1
Avg goals scored
Pianese1
Forli1.4
Avg goals conceded
Pianese1
Forli80%
BTTS rate
Pianese60%
Forli20%
Over 2.5 goals
Pianese40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 59% · edge +6 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 39%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent form data shows Forli scores and concedes around 1 goal per game, with only 20% of their matches going over 2.5 goals. Pianese has a slightly higher over 2.5 rate at 40%, but both teams have high BTTS no rates, especially Forli at 80%. This points to a low-scoring game with limited goal exchanges.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Forli

LDLDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
17 Oct 2026A Guidonia Montecelio 19372-3
11 Oct 2026H Livorno1-1
03 Oct 2026A Vado0-1
27 Sep 2026A Ostia Mare1-1
19 Sep 2026H Torres1-1

Pianese

DDWLD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 4L
17 Oct 2026H Pineto0-0
10 Oct 2026A Ostia Mare0-0
04 Oct 2026H Ravenna2-1
26 Sep 2026A Livorno2-3
21 Sep 2026H Sambenedettese1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Pianese Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Pianese to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Forli Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Forli to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Forli has earned 3 points recently with a low goal output, scoring once and conceding 1.4 goals per game, while Pianese has 6 points with similar goal stats. Both teams show a pattern of tight matches with few goals, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals selection based on their recent defensive solidity and cautious play.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Pianese Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Pianese to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 39%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Forli Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Forli to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 64.8% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Forli and 40% for Pianese, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Forli Over 2.5
40%Pianese Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The last two head-to-head matches averaged 2.5 goals, indicating a moderate scoring trend. Over the recent matches, Forli's low over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Pianese's higher rate, but overall the trend suggests a game with controlled tempo and limited goal-scoring chances, consistent with an Under 2.5 Goals scenario.

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