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Mjallby AIF crestMjallby AIF
v
Hammarby FF crestHammarby FF

Allsvenskan | Sun 25 Oct, 15:30

Mjallby AIF v Hammarby FF Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 00:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Allsvenskan fixture features 12th-placed Mjallby AIF hosting 3rd-placed Hammarby FF in a contest where defensive solidity and tactical caution are likely to dominate. Mjallby AIF have struggled offensively, averaging just 0.6 goals per game recently, while Hammarby FF maintain a stronger defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per match. Both teams have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, indicating a tendency towards tighter scorelines. The stakes remain high as Hammarby push for European qualification, while Mjallby aim to avoid relegation, suggesting a measured approach from both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF both have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20% in recent matches.
  • Mjallby AIF average only 0.6 goals scored per game, highlighting limited attacking threat.
  • Hammarby FF concede just 0.6 goals per match, showing defensive resilience.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.5 over the last 10 meetings, supporting a lower scoring trend.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Under 2.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 66% chance, well above the implied 42.6% chance from current . Both teams exhibit defensive discipline and low scoring output, with Mjallby AIF scoring 0.6 goals per game and Hammarby FF conceding only 0.6. Their shared 20% over 2.5 goals rate in recent form and a moderate 2.5 average goals in head-to-head clashes reinforce the likelihood of a low-scoring game. This tactical and statistical profile aligns with the Under 2.5 Goals selection, offering a confident betting angle.

Model Chance57.6% model chance vs 42.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance57.6% model chance vs 42.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals Scored (Mjallby AIF)0.6 per game
Strong positive
Recent Goals Conceded (Hammarby FF)0.6 per game
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate (Both Teams)20%
Strong positive
Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and statistical analysis

“This match looks set for a tactical battle with both sides showing defensive discipline and limited scoring in recent games. The Under 2.5 Goals pick aligns well with the teams' cautious styles and statistical trends.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Mjallby AIF average only 0.6 goals scored per game, highlighting limited attacking threat.

Hammarby FF concede just 0.6 goals per match, showing defensive resilience.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.5 over the last 10 meetings, supporting a lower scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderate scoring trend.
  • Both teams have a 20% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches, suggesting a tempo and tactical setup that limits goal-scoring opportunities, making Over 2.5 Goals a less likely outcome in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mjallby AIF0.6
Avg goals scored
Hammarby FF1.2
Mjallby AIF1.4
Avg goals conceded
Hammarby FF0.6
Mjallby AIF60%
BTTS rate
Hammarby FF40%
Mjallby AIF20%
Over 2.5 goals
Hammarby FF20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 38%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have low recent scoring and conceding rates, with Mjallby AIF scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.4, and Hammarby FF scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.6 per game. Their combined over 2.5 goals rate is just 20%, and BTTS rates are moderate, indicating a match likely to produce fewer goals and potentially only one side scoring, supporting Under 2.5 Goals.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 59% · edge +7.9 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Mjallby AIF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Hammarby FF to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Hammarby FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Mjallby AIF to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
The 57.6% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 42.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Mjallby AIF and 20% for Hammarby FF, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mjallby AIF

LDLDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
18 Oct 2026A Vasteras SK FK0-1
10 Oct 2026H Degerfors IF1-1
20 Sep 2026H Gais0-3
16 Sep 2026A AIK Stockholm1-1
11 Sep 2026A BK Hacken1-1

Hammarby FF

WLWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
18 Oct 2026A Halmstad1-0
11 Oct 2026H Djurgardens IF0-1
20 Sep 2026A Degerfors IF1-0
13 Sep 2026H IF Brommapojkarna3-1
06 Sep 2026A Orgryte IS1-1
Best odds for this sectionMjallby AIF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
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Hammarby FF to WinBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Hammarby FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Mjallby AIF to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Recent form data shows Mjallby AIF with only 3 points and 0.6 goals scored per game, contrasting with Hammarby FF's stronger 10 points and 1.2 goals scored. Both teams share a low 20% over 2.5 goals rate, reinforcing a trend toward low-scoring matches. This form supports the Under 2.5 Goals pick as both sides appear cautious and defensively focused.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Mjallby AIF Over 2.5
20%Hammarby FF Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, indicating a moderate scoring trend. Both teams have a 20% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches, suggesting a tempo and tactical setup that limits goal-scoring opportunities, making Over 2.5 Goals a less likely outcome in this fixture.

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