Football Stats Hub

Palermo crestPalermo
v
Carrarese crestCarrarese

Serie B | Sun 25 Oct, 14:00

Palermo v Carrarese Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palermo hosts Carrarese in a Serie B clash where Palermo leads the table with strong recent form, having scored an average of 2.4 goals per game but also conceding just once per match. Carrarese, positioned 14th, have struggled offensively, averaging only 0.8 goals per game and maintaining a solid defensive record. The tactical setup suggests a cautious approach from Carrarese, likely to limit open play and scoring chances. Palermo's attacking threat is balanced by Carrarese's defensive discipline, setting the stage for a potentially low-scoring encounter with tight midfield battles and controlled tempo.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Palermo averages 2.4 goals per game but concedes only 1, indicating balanced play.
  • Carrarese scores 0.8 goals per game with a strong defense, suggesting limited scoring.
  • Recent form shows Palermo's Over 2.5 rate at 60%, Carrarese only 20%, favoring fewer goals.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.25 over four matches, supporting a low to moderate scoring game.
  • Both teams have similar corner averages (4 each), indicating moderate attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 60.1% chance, reflecting Palermo's solid defense and Carrarese's limited scoring ability. Despite Palermo's attacking potential, Carrarese's disciplined defense and low goal concession rate suggest a controlled game with fewer goals. The of 18.4% at of 2.4 indicates a strong price opportunity. is high at 81%, supported by recent form and season stats showing both teams' tendencies toward lower-scoring matches. No data limitations affect this analysis.

Model Probability56.7% model chance vs 41.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge56.7% model chance vs 41.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormPalermo and Carrarese show low BTTS and goal rates
Positive
Defensive StrengthCarrarese concedes only 0.8 goals per game
Positive
Offensive OutputCarrarese scores just 0.8 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given Palermo's balanced attack and Carrarese's defensive resilience. The tactical setup and recent form data suggest a match controlled in midfield with limited clear-cut chances, making a low-scoring game the most probable outcome.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and defensive balance

“Palermo's offensive threat is tempered by Carrarese's disciplined defense, creating a tactical battle likely to limit goal-scoring opportunities and favor a low total goals outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Palermo averages 2.4 goals per game but concedes only 1, indicating balanced play.

Carrarese scores 0.8 goals per game with a strong defense, suggesting limited scoring.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.25 over four matches, supporting a low to moderate scoring game.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.25, indicating a trend toward matches with fewer than three goals.
  • This sample suggests a moderate tempo with defensive caution from both sides, supporting the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Palermo2.4
Avg goals scored
Carrarese0.8
Palermo1
Avg goals conceded
Carrarese0.8
Palermo80%
BTTS rate
Carrarese20%
Palermo60%
Over 2.5 goals
Carrarese20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 26%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams show low scoring rates, with Carrarese scoring 0.8 goals per game and Palermo conceding just 1. BTTS rates are low for Carrarese at 20%, suggesting fewer matches with both teams scoring. This points to a game likely to stay under 2.5 goals with limited goal exchanges.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionPalermo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 68% · edge +6.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Carrarese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Palermo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Carrarese to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 56.7% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 41.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Palermo and 20% for Carrarese, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Palermo

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 0L
17 Oct 2026A Mantova2-0
10 Oct 2026A Empoli4-2
19 Sep 2026H Padova2-1
13 Sep 2026A Avellino1-1
07 Sep 2026H Sampdoria3-1

Carrarese

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 4L
17 Oct 2026H Modena2-1
11 Oct 2026A Padova2-0
19 Sep 2026H Benevento0-1
12 Sep 2026A Catanzaro0-1
05 Sep 2026H Empoli0-1
Best odds for this sectionPalermo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 68% · edge +6.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Carrarese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Palermo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Carrarese to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Palermo's recent form shows a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals matches, but Carrarese's low 20% Over 2.5 rate and 20% BTTS rate suggest a tendency toward low-scoring games. Palermo's 13 points and Carrarese's 6 in recent matches reflect contrasting momentum, but defensive caution from Carrarese likely suppresses goal totals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Palermo Over 2.5
20%Carrarese Over 2.5
2.25H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.25, indicating a trend toward matches with fewer than three goals. This sample suggests a moderate tempo with defensive caution from both sides, supporting the likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

Loading deeper match data…