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Brentford crestBrentford

Premier League | Sun 25 Oct, 14:00

Hull City v Brentford Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 23:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hull City host Brentford at the MKM Stadium in a Premier League clash where both teams aim to maintain their unbeaten records under contrasting circumstances. Hull City have struggled recently, enduring a five-match winless streak and showing limited attacking threat, especially in their last outing where they failed to register a shot on target. Brentford, despite missing key midfielders due to suspension, remain a potent attacking force with the fourth-highest goal tally in the league and a consistent pattern of scoring first in every match this season. The tactical battle will hinge on Brentford's ability to exploit Hull's attacking frailties and the visitors' reshuffled midfield dynamics, setting up an intriguing contest with Brentford favored to edge a narrow win.

BT4Y best bet

Brentford to Win

  • Brentford are the Premier League's fourth-highest scorers with 13 goals this season.
  • Brentford have scored first in all seven league matches, showing strong early attacking intent.
  • Hull City are winless in their last five league matches, scoring only once in that span.
  • Brentford remain unbeaten away but have drawn all three road games so far, highlighting a challenge in converting chances into wins.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Brentford's chances at 59.6%, slightly above the implied market probability of 58.8%, indicating a modest . Brentford's consistent scoring record and ability to take early leads contrast with Hull City's recent attacking struggles and limited chance creation. Despite Brentford's midfield suspensions, their attacking depth and tactical adaptability provide a clear advantage. The model at 60% reflects a balanced view acknowledging Hull's home resilience but favors Brentford's superior offensive output and form. No data limitations affect this assessment, supporting the away win as a logical selection.

Model Chance59.6% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+1.8 pts)
Positive
Implied Market Chance59.6% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+1.8 pts)
Neutral
Recent FormBrentford's better recent results and scoring consistency
Positive
Attacking OutputBrentford's 13 goals vs Hull's recent attacking issues
Strong positive
Midfield SuspensionsBrentford missing key midfielders but still strong attack
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Brentford's consistent ability to score first and their superior attacking record make them the likely winners in this fixture. Hull City's recent lack of attacking threat and ongoing winless streak provide a clear tactical and form-based rationale for backing Brentford to secure the three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Brentford to Win

“Brentford's attacking consistency and early goal threat create a tactical edge over a Hull side struggling to generate meaningful chances. Their ability to adapt despite midfield suspensions underscores their quality and makes them the logical pick for victory.”

Key Data Signals

Brentford to Win evidence

Brentford are the Premier League's fourth-highest scorers with 13 goals this season.

Brentford have scored first in all seven league matches, showing strong early attacking intent.

Hull City are winless in their last five league matches, scoring only once in that span.

Brentford remain unbeaten away but have drawn all three road games so far, highlighting a challenge in converting chances into wins.

What To Watch In The Data

Brentford to Win notes

  • Over the last seven matches, Brentford have an 80% rate of games finishing over 2.5 goals, indicating a high-tempo, attacking style that often leads to multiple goals.
  • Hull City's over 2.5 rate stands at 60%, suggesting a moderate likelihood of a higher-scoring game.
  • The average goals in their eight head-to-head meetings is 3.38, supporting expectations for an open, goal-rich encounter in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hull City1
Avg goals scored
Brentford1.8
Hull City1.4
Avg goals conceded
Brentford1.4
Hull City60%
BTTS rate
Brentford80%
Hull City60%
Over 2.5 goals
Brentford80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 85%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have scored in each of Brentford's last six away matches, and Brentford have netted first in all seven league games, suggesting a high likelihood of goals at both ends. Hull's recent attacking difficulties may limit their scoring chances, but their home defensive resilience and Brentford's offensive potency support a BTTS outcome in this fixture.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBrentford to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +1.8 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Brentford Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 59.6% for Brentford to Win sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+1.8 pts). Brentford have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 3 for Hull City. Brentford consistently score first and both teams have scored in Brentford's last six away matches.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hull City

LDLDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 2L
17 Oct 2026A Fulham0-1
11 Oct 2026H Everton2-2
19 Sep 2026A Newcastle1-2
12 Sep 2026A Chelsea2-2
05 Sep 2026H Aston Villa0-0

Brentford

LDWDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 1L
17 Oct 2026H Liverpool1-2
10 Oct 2026A Aston Villa2-2
18 Sep 2026H Chelsea3-0
12 Sep 2026A Bournemouth2-2
05 Sep 2026H Sunderland1-1
Market aligned with main pickBrentford to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +1.8 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Brentford Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Brentford have collected 6 points in recent matches, maintaining their unbeaten away record but drawing all three road games, reflecting strong but not decisive form. Hull City have managed only 3 points in their last five matches, with a notable decline in attacking output and no wins, underscoring their current vulnerability and reduced momentum.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Hull City Over 2.5
80%Brentford Over 2.5
3.38H2H avg goals
Over the last seven matches, Brentford have an 80% rate of games finishing over 2.5 goals, indicating a high-tempo, attacking style that often leads to multiple goals. Hull City's over 2.5 rate stands at 60%, suggesting a moderate likelihood of a higher-scoring game. The average goals in their eight head-to-head meetings is 3.38, supporting expectations for an open, goal-rich encounter in this fixture.

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