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Grosseto crestGrosseto
v
Reggiana crestReggiana

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 25 Oct, 13:30

Grosseto v Reggiana Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Grosseto and Reggiana meet in a Serie C - Girone B clash where Grosseto holds a slight edge in the league standings and recent form. Grosseto sits third with 19 points, showing a strong attacking output with an average of 2.8 goals scored per game and a high rate of matches going over 2.5 goals. Reggiana, ranked fifth with 17 points, has struggled offensively, averaging just 0.6 goals per game and no over 2.5 goal matches recently. This fixture presents Grosseto with a good opportunity to capitalize on their home advantage and offensive momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Grosseto to Win

  • Grosseto leads the standings with 19 points, two ahead of Reggiana.
  • Grosseto averages 2.8 goals scored per game versus Reggiana's 0.6.
  • 80% of Grosseto's recent matches have gone over 2.5 goals, while Reggiana has none.
  • Grosseto has a 71.4% to win, with positive value at of 2.88.
  • Recent form favors Grosseto, who have earned 10 points compared to Reggiana's 6 in their last matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Grosseto to win based on their superior recent form, offensive firepower, and league position. Grosseto's high goal-scoring rate and frequent over 2.5 goal matches contrast sharply with Reggiana's low scoring and defensive solidity. The offer good value, reflecting a significant positive edge over the implied probability. This suggests Grosseto's attacking momentum and home advantage should translate into a victory despite Reggiana's defensive discipline.

Model Win Probability71.4%
Strong positive
Grosseto Goals Per Game2.8
Strong positive
Reggiana Goals Per Game0.6
Negative
Over 2.5 Goals Rate Grosseto80%
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate Reggiana0%
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Grosseto's attacking prowess and superior recent form make them the clear favorite to secure victory. Their ability to consistently score and pressure opponents contrasts with Reggiana's struggles upfront, providing a strong tactical and statistical basis for backing Grosseto to win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Grosseto's offensive consistency and home advantage create a compelling case for their victory, especially against a Reggiana side that has struggled to find the net. This match likely favors the team with the sharper attack and better momentum.”

Key Data Signals

Grosseto to Win evidence

Grosseto leads the standings with 19 points, two ahead of Reggiana.

Grosseto averages 2.8 goals scored per game versus Reggiana's 0.6.

80% of Grosseto's recent matches have gone over 2.5 goals, while Reggiana has none.

Grosseto has a 71.4% to win, with positive value at of 2.88.

What To Watch In The Data

Grosseto to Win notes

  • In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored were 2, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Grosseto's recent trend of high-scoring games suggests the potential for over 2.5 goals, especially given their offensive form and Reggiana's defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Grosseto2.8
Avg goals scored
Reggiana0.6
Grosseto1.8
Avg goals conceded
Reggiana0.8
Grosseto60%
BTTS rate
Reggiana0%
Grosseto80%
Over 2.5 goals
Reggiana0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 48% · edge +13 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
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BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Grosseto's matches have a high frequency of over 2.5 goals at 80%, reflecting their attacking style and openness in games. Reggiana's matches have not reached over 2.5 goals recently, indicating a more defensive or less effective offense. This contrast suggests a potential for a high-scoring game driven by Grosseto's offensive pressure.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGrosseto to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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Grosseto Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 49.7% for Grosseto to Win sits against roughly 34.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Grosseto have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 6 for Reggiana.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Grosseto

DWLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
16 Oct 2026A Livorno4-4
10 Oct 2026A Vis Pesaro3-2
03 Oct 2026H Sambenedettese1-3
26 Sep 2026A Pineto4-0
20 Sep 2026H Perugia2-0

Reggiana

LWLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
20 Oct 2026A Pineto0-2
17 Oct 2026H Torres2-0
04 Oct 2026H Spezia0-1
27 Sep 2026A Perugia0-1
20 Sep 2026H Latina1-0
Market aligned with main pickGrosseto to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Grosseto Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Grosseto has accumulated 10 points recently, showcasing better form and goal-scoring ability compared to Reggiana's 6 points and limited offensive output. This recent momentum supports Grosseto's and likelihood to control the match and secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Grosseto Over 2.5
0%Reggiana Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored were 2, indicating moderate scoring. Grosseto's recent trend of high-scoring games suggests the potential for over 2.5 goals, especially given their offensive form and Reggiana's defensive vulnerabilities.

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