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Desenzano Calvina crestDesenzano Calvina
v
Giana Erminio crestGiana Erminio

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 25 Oct, 13:30

Desenzano Calvina v Giana Erminio Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Desenzano Calvina and Giana Erminio meet in Serie C - Girone A with both sides showing cautious attacking output this season. Desenzano Calvina sits mid-table with 13 points and a modest goal-scoring record, while Giana Erminio struggles near the bottom with only 8 points and a slightly higher goals-for average. Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency toward tighter games. Defensive solidity and tactical caution are likely to shape this encounter, with neither side prolific enough to expect a high-scoring affair.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, suggesting lower-scoring matches.
  • Desenzano Calvina averages 1 goal scored and 1 conceded per game, reflecting balanced defense and attack.
  • Giana Erminio concedes 1 goal per game on average, indicating defensive resilience.
  • Recent form points totals are close: Desenzano Calvina with 8 and Giana Erminio with 7, showing evenly matched sides.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 61.5% chance, supported by both teams' moderate scoring and conceding rates around 1 goal per game. The 40% Over 2.5 rate for each side signals a tendency toward fewer goals, reinforced by recent form data showing low scoring outputs. The at 1.73 offer a small positive , making this a sensible selection for a match likely to be tactically cautious and defensively disciplined. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model probability61.5% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+3.7 pts)
Strong positive
Teams' Over 2.5 Goals rates40% each, indicating lower scoring
Positive
Average goals scored/concededAround 1 goal per game for both teams
Positive
Recent form scoringLow goals scored recently by both sides
Positive
Price/value61.5% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+3.7 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a tight, low-scoring contest between Desenzano Calvina and Giana Erminio, as both teams have shown limited offensive output and solid defensive organization this season. The data supports a cautious approach with Under 2.5 Goals likely, reflecting the balanced recent form and modest goal averages on both sides.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals

“This fixture looks set for a tactical battle with both sides showing defensive discipline and limited attacking threat, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Desenzano Calvina averages 1 goal scored and 1 conceded per game, reflecting balanced defense and attack.

Giana Erminio concedes 1 goal per game on average, indicating defensive resilience.

Recent form points totals are close: Desenzano Calvina with 8 and Giana Erminio with 7, showing evenly matched sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a consistent pattern of low-scoring games.
  • This trend suggests a tempo and tactical approach favoring defensive solidity and fewer goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Desenzano Calvina1
Avg goals scored
Giana Erminio1.2
Desenzano Calvina1
Avg goals conceded
Giana Erminio1
Desenzano Calvina40%
BTTS rate
Giana Erminio80%
Desenzano Calvina40%
Over 2.5 goals
Giana Erminio40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 58% · edge +3.7 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating that most matches end with fewer than three goals. Giana Erminio's higher BTTS rate of 80% contrasts with Desenzano Calvina's 40%, but the overall goal averages near one per game suggest limited scoring chances, supporting a low-goal outcome.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Desenzano Calvina

LWWDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
18 Oct 2026A Alcione1-4
10 Oct 2026H Dolomiti Bellunesi2-0
03 Oct 2026A Folgore Caratese2-1
26 Sep 2026H Juventus U230-0
21 Sep 2026A Treviso0-0

Giana Erminio

WDDDD
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 4L
19 Oct 2026H Union Brescia2-1
11 Oct 2026A Renate2-2
04 Oct 2026A Treviso0-0
26 Sep 2026H PRO Vercelli1-1
20 Sep 2026A Folgore Caratese1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 68% vs implied 64% · edge +3.8 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Giana Erminio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Giana Erminio to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Desenzano Calvina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form shows Desenzano Calvina with 8 points and Giana Erminio with 7, both scoring around one goal per game. This parity and low scoring trend suggest a cautious match tempo with limited offensive breakthroughs, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals outlook.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 55% · edge +8.7 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Giana Erminio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Giana Erminio to WinBet365 guide price · model 38%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Desenzano Calvina to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The 61.5% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+3.7 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Desenzano Calvina and 40% for Giana Erminio, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Desenzano Calvina Over 2.5
40%Giana Erminio Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a consistent pattern of low-scoring games. This trend suggests a tempo and tactical approach favoring defensive solidity and fewer goal-scoring opportunities in this fixture.

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