Erzgebirge Aue

1899 Hoffenheim

DFB Pokal | Sat 22 Aug, 14:30

Erzgebirge Aue v 1899 Hoffenheim Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Erzgebirge Aue face 1899 Hoffenheim in DFB Pokal on Sat 22 Aug, 14:30.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

At 3.6, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 28%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 43%.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 43% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 28% implied by the current price.

Model chance vs price43% model chance against roughly 28% implied

Strong positive

Price sensitivityEdge +15 pts

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Erzgebirge Aue

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Erzgebirge Aue yet.

1899 Hoffenheim

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for 1899 Hoffenheim yet.

Best odds for this sectionDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 25% vs implied 10% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 10

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Erzgebirge Aue to WinBetMGM guide price · model 19%

Check odds @ 25

Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 71%

1.01

Check odds @ 1.01

1899 Hoffenheim to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%

1.08

Check odds @ 1.08

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Erzgebirge Aue-

Avg goals scored

1899 Hoffenheim-

Erzgebirge Aue-

Avg goals conceded

1899 Hoffenheim-

Erzgebirge Aue-

BTTS rate

1899 Hoffenheim-

Erzgebirge Aue-

Over 2.5 goals

1899 Hoffenheim-

Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts

3.6

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%

2.1

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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%

1.07

Check odds @ 1.07

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%

1.28

Check odds @ 1.28

Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 32%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 25% vs implied 10% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 10

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Erzgebirge Aue to WinBetMGM guide price · model 19%

Check odds @ 25

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%

1.28

Check odds @ 1.28

1899 Hoffenheim to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%

1.08

Check odds @ 1.08

Draw is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Erzgebirge Aue wins

0Draws

01899 Hoffenheim wins

Best odds for this sectionDrawBetMGM guide price · Model 25% vs implied 10% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 10

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Erzgebirge Aue to WinBetMGM guide price · model 19%

Check odds @ 25

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%

1.28

Check odds @ 1.28

1899 Hoffenheim to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%

1.08

Check odds @ 1.08

There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Draw, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

DFB Pokal

Erzgebirge Aue0

Played

1899 Hoffenheim0

Erzgebirge Aue0

Avg goals for

1899 Hoffenheim0

Erzgebirge Aue0

Avg goals against

1899 Hoffenheim0

Erzgebirge Aue0

Clean sheets

1899 Hoffenheim0

Best odds for this sectionErzgebirge Aue to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 19% vs implied 4% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 25

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1899 Hoffenheim to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%

1.08

Check odds @ 1.08

Season data supports Erzgebirge Aue to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Erzgebirge Aue Over 2.5

-1899 Hoffenheim Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Erzgebirge Aue v 1899 Hoffenheim Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

What To Watch In The Data

Erzgebirge Aue

1899 Hoffenheim

Next step

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Football Stats Hub

Erzgebirge Aue v 1899 Hoffenheim Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

What To Watch In The Data

Erzgebirge Aue

1899 Hoffenheim

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