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Eintracht Frankfurt crestEintracht Frankfurt
v
Hamburger SV crestHamburger SV

Bundesliga | Sun 01 Nov, 16:30

Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 00:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hamburger SV hosts Eintracht Frankfurt in a DFB-Pokal clash where both sides seek to bounce back from recent narrow defeats. Hamburg's home form has improved with two wins in three matches, while Frankfurt's away defense remains vulnerable, conceding 11 goals in their last four road games. Both teams have shown attacking potential but also defensive frailties, setting the stage for an open encounter. Tactical control may favor Frankfurt with higher possession, yet Hamburg's home resilience and counter threats add intrigue to this competitive fixture.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 69%, above the 57% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Both teams concede heavily: Frankfurt 2.4 and Hamburg 2.3 goals per game over last seven matches.
  • Frankfurt conceded 11 goals in last four away matches, highlighting defensive weakness.
  • Hamburg won two of three home fixtures this season, showing home advantage strength.
  • Recent low attacking outputs pose risk, but combined defensive records support Over 2.5 Goals.
Price warning

Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 69% while the model sits nearer 57% (-12.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 9.5 Corners shows a +13.4 pts edge at 1.8.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The selection of Over 2.5 Goals is grounded in both teams' defensive vulnerabilities, with Frankfurt conceding 2.4 and Hamburg 2.3 goals per game over recent matches. Frankfurt's poor away defensive record, allowing 11 goals in four matches, further supports the likelihood of multiple goals. Although recent attacking performances dipped, the combined defensive frailties and historical data suggest a higher chance of at least three goals. The current are short compared to the , so reduced staking or waiting for better pricing is advisable.

Price / value57% model chance vs 69% implied (-12.1 pts)
Negative
Frankfurt Defensive Record2.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Hamburg Defensive Record2.3 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Frankfurt Away Goals Conceded11 goals in last 4 away matches
Strong positive
Recent Attacking OutputLow shots and possession last match
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game given both teams' defensive struggles and recent form. Frankfurt's possession advantage suggests they will create chances, but Hamburg's home resilience and ability to score provide a balanced contest. Over 2.5 Goals aligns with the tactical and statistical context of this DFB-Pokal tie.

Main risk

However, recent low attacking outputs pose a risk to this selection.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goals market rationale

“Both sides have shown defensive frailties and attacking potential, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical choice despite recent low-scoring matches. The fixture's dynamics favor an open, goal-rich encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams concede heavily: Frankfurt 2.4 and Hamburg 2.3 goals per game over last seven matches.

Frankfurt conceded 11 goals in last four away matches, highlighting defensive weakness.

Hamburg won two of three home fixtures this season, showing home advantage strength.

Recent low attacking outputs pose risk, but combined defensive records support Over 2.5 Goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.1, slightly below the Over 2.5 threshold.
  • However, recent trends show both teams involved in higher-scoring games, with defensive lapses and open play increasing goal chances.
  • The tempo and attacking transitions in this cup tie suggest a likelihood of surpassing 2.5 goals despite historical averages.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Eintracht Frankfurt1.2
Avg goals scored
Hamburger SV1.2
Eintracht Frankfurt2
Avg goals conceded
Hamburger SV1.8
Eintracht Frankfurt40%
BTTS rate
Hamburger SV40%
Eintracht Frankfurt60%
Over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 69% · edge -12.1 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have conceded heavily recently, with Frankfurt allowing 2.4 and Hamburg 2.3 goals per game over seven matches. Their combined defensive frailties and the away side's poor defensive form suggest multiple goals are likely. However, recent matches showed reduced attacking output, so the goal count depends on improved offensive execution.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 69% · edge -12.1 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Hamburger SV to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Hamburger SV Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBetUK guide price · model 27%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
The 57.3% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 69.4% implied by the current price (-12.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 60% for Hamburger SV, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Backing Over 2.5 Goals suits this DFB-Pokal tie as both teams concede heavily, with Frankfurt allowing 2.4 goals and Hamburg 2.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Eintracht Frankfurt

LWLDW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
24 Oct 2026A Borussia Dortmund0-1
16 Oct 2026H 1. FC Köln1-0
10 Oct 2026A RB Leipzig0-6
19 Sep 2026H SC Freiburg2-2
12 Sep 2026A FSV Mainz 053-1

Hamburger SV

LWWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 4L
24 Oct 2026A SC Paderborn 070-1
17 Oct 2026H VfB Stuttgart1-0
10 Oct 2026A 1899 Hoffenheim3-2
19 Sep 2026H 1. FC Köln2-1
13 Sep 2026A RB Leipzig0-5
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Hamburger SV to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Hamburger SV Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetUK guide price · model 27%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Eintracht Frankfurt Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Eintracht Frankfurt to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Recent form shows both teams averaging 1.2 goals scored per game, with Frankfurt conceding 2.0 and Hamburg 1.8 goals on average. Both have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a trend towards higher-scoring games. This recent data aligns with the Over 2.5 Goals selection, reflecting ongoing defensive issues and attacking potential.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Eintracht Frankfurt Over 2.5
60%Hamburger SV Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.1, slightly below the Over 2.5 threshold. However, recent trends show both teams involved in higher-scoring games, with defensive lapses and open play increasing goal chances. The tempo and attacking transitions in this cup tie suggest a likelihood of surpassing 2.5 goals despite historical averages.

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