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Start crestStart
v
Lillestrom crestLillestrom

Eliteserien | Sun 01 Nov, 16:00

Start v Lillestrom Stats

Data last updated: Mon 02 Nov 2026, 00:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Eliteserien clash features Lillestrom visiting Start, with Lillestrom holding a strong position in the league and recent form favoring them. Lillestrom have demonstrated a more effective attack and tighter defense, reflected in their higher points tally and goal difference. Start, struggling near the bottom, face a tough challenge to contain Lillestrom's dynamic forwards. The match promises tactical battles in midfield and attacking zones, with Lillestrom expected to press for control and capitalize on Start's defensive vulnerabilities.

BT4Y best bet

Lillestrom to Win

  • Lillestrom ranks 6th with 39 points, significantly ahead of 16th-placed Start with 19 points.
  • Lillestrom averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 1.4 per game, showing better balance than Start's 1.2 scored and 2.6 conceded.
  • Recent form shows Lillestrom earned 10 points versus Start's 6 in their last five matches.
  • Lillestrom's attackers, including F. Gulbrandsen and T. Lehne Olsen, have strong goal threat and shot volumes.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2.57 goals, indicating potential for an open game favoring Lillestrom's attack.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Lillestrom to win with a 68.4% chance, reflecting their superior league standing, recent form, and attacking efficiency. Lillestrom's forwards, particularly Gulbrandsen and Lehne Olsen, consistently generate high-quality shots and goals, while their defense concedes fewer goals than Start. The of 25.8% at of 2.35 indicates a strong price-quality ratio. The data quality is solid, with comprehensive stats supporting this selection. This pick aligns well with the tactical and statistical profile of both teams.

Model Win Probability68.4%
Strong positive
Value Edge vs Odds57.6% model chance vs 42.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsLillestrom 10 vs Start 6
Positive
Goal Scoring BalanceLillestrom 1.8 GF, 1.4 GA; Start 1.2 GF, 2.6 GA
Strong positive
Data QualityComplete for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lillestrom's superior form and attacking firepower make them the clear choice to secure victory. Their ability to create and convert chances contrasts with Start's defensive struggles, giving Lillestrom a tactical and statistical edge that should translate into a winning performance.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Lillestrom's consistent offensive pressure and defensive solidity position them strongly to overcome Start, whose defensive frailties and lower form present exploitable weaknesses.”

Key Data Signals

Lillestrom to Win evidence

Lillestrom ranks 6th with 39 points, significantly ahead of 16th-placed Start with 19 points.

Lillestrom averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 1.4 per game, showing better balance than Start's 1.2 scored and 2.6 conceded.

Recent form shows Lillestrom earned 10 points versus Start's 6 in their last five matches.

Lillestrom's attackers, including F. Gulbrandsen and T. Lehne Olsen, have strong goal threat and shot volumes.

What To Watch In The Data

Lillestrom to Win notes

  • In the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.57, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • This suggests a tempo that allows for attacking opportunities and supports the potential for Lillestrom to capitalize on offensive chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Start1.2
Avg goals scored
Lillestrom1.8
Start2.6
Avg goals conceded
Lillestrom1.4
Start40%
BTTS rate
Lillestrom40%
Start60%
Over 2.5 goals
Lillestrom60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 77% vs implied 86% · edge -8.5 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, and the head-to-head average of 2.57 goals supports a moderately open game. Lillestrom's attacking players generate high shot volumes, indicating a likelihood of goals, while Start's defensive record suggests vulnerability to conceding.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLillestrom to WinBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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Lillestrom Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 57.6% for Lillestrom to Win sits against roughly 42.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Lillestrom have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 6 for Start.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Start

WLLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 6L
25 Oct 2026H Sandefjord1-0
18 Oct 2026A Molde1-6
11 Oct 2026H Ham-Kam2-4
20 Sep 2026A Sandefjord0-3
13 Sep 2026H Brann2-0

Lillestrom

WWDLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
25 Oct 2026H Brann3-2
18 Oct 2026A Sandefjord2-0
11 Oct 2026H Molde2-2
20 Sep 2026A Viking0-3
12 Sep 2026H Valerenga2-0
Market aligned with main pickLillestrom to WinBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Lillestrom Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Lillestrom's recent form is superior, securing 10 points in their last five matches compared to Start's 6. Their better goal scoring and defensive records in this period underline their momentum and readiness to control this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Start Over 2.5
60%Lillestrom Over 2.5
2.57H2H avg goals
In the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.57, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. This suggests a tempo that allows for attacking opportunities and supports the potential for Lillestrom to capitalize on offensive chances.

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