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Union Berlin crestUnion Berlin
v
1. FC Köln crest1. FC Köln

Bundesliga | Sun 01 Nov, 14:30

Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln Stats

Data last updated: Mon 02 Nov 2026, 00:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Union Berlin hosts 1. FC Köln in a Bundesliga clash where both sides have shown a tendency for active wing play and set-piece involvement. Union Berlin, struggling near the relegation zone, will seek to leverage home pressure and wide attacks, while Köln's mid-table position and slightly better defensive record suggest a tactical battle with frequent flank duels. Recent form shows both teams generating decent attacking volume but conceding chances, setting up a contest likely to feature sustained pressure and multiple corner opportunities as each side pushes for control.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Union Berlin averages 3.8 corners per game, Köln 5.5, combining for over 9.3 corners on average.
  • Both teams favor wing play, increasing corner potential through crosses and wide deliveries.
  • Recent matches show both sides engaging in physical duels, leading to set-piece opportunities.
  • Model estimates a 67.2% chance for Over 9.5 Corners, with a positive of 9.4%.
  • Shots on target averages (Union Berlin 3.4, Köln 4.75) indicate attacking intent and pressure near the box.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a value bet with a 67.2% chance versus a 57.8% implied probability from , reflecting a 9.4% edge. Both teams' attacking styles involve frequent wing play and crossing, generating corner opportunities. Union Berlin's average of 3.8 corners and Köln's 5.5 per match combine to exceed the line regularly. The physicality and fouling rates further contribute to set-piece chances. No data limitations or price warnings apply, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Combined Average Corners~9.3 per game
Strong positive
Attacking StyleWing play and crosses increase corners
Positive
PhysicalityHigh fouls and duels lead to set pieces
Positive
Model Confidence78% confidence in prediction
Strong positive
Price Edge69% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+11.2 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with sustained wing pressure and frequent attacking transitions, leading to numerous corner situations. Union Berlin's home urgency combined with Köln's offensive intent supports a high corner count. The data highlights a strong likelihood of Over 9.5 Corners, driven by both teams' average corner rates and shot volumes.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market rationale

“This fixture's tactical setup and recent attacking patterns strongly favor a high number of corners, with both sides relying on wide play and physical duels that naturally generate set-piece opportunities.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Union Berlin averages 3.8 corners per game, Köln 5.5, combining for over 9.3 corners on average.

Both teams favor wing play, increasing corner potential through crosses and wide deliveries.

Recent matches show both sides engaging in physical duels, leading to set-piece opportunities.

Model estimates a 67.2% chance for Over 9.5 Corners, with a positive of 9.4%.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals tally is 2.6, indicating moderately open games.
  • Over the last five matches, both teams have shown a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting a balanced tempo that favors set-piece chances and corner accumulation rather than high scoring alone.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Union Berlin0.6
Avg goals scored
1. FC Köln0.8
Union Berlin2.2
Avg goals conceded
1. FC Köln1
Union Berlin40%
BTTS rate
1. FC Köln60%
Union Berlin40%
Over 2.5 goals
1. FC Köln40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 48% · edge +5.3 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams have moderate goal-scoring rates but show a shared tendency for open play and attacking wing use, which often leads to corners rather than goals. The 40-60% BTTS split and 40% Over 2.5 rates suggest the game may be more about territorial battles and set-piece chances than high scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Bundesliga analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 75% vs implied 74% · edge +1.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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1. FC Köln to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
1. FC Köln Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Union Berlin to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Union Berlin Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The 69% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+11.2 pts). FC Köln lead the corner sample at 5.6 per match, with Union Berlin lower at 3.8.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Union Berlin

DDWLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 3L
24 Oct 2026A FC Augsburg1-1
17 Oct 2026H Borussia Dortmund0-0
10 Oct 2026H SV Elversberg1-0
18 Sep 2026A Bayern München0-7
11 Sep 2026H FC Schalke 041-3

1. FC Köln

DLWLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
24 Oct 2026H FC Schalke 040-0
16 Oct 2026A Eintracht Frankfurt0-1
11 Oct 2026H Borussia Mönchengladbach2-1
19 Sep 2026A Hamburger SV1-2
12 Sep 2026H Werder Bremen1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 71% · edge +4.8 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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1. FC Köln to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
1. FC Köln Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Union Berlin to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Union Berlin Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Recent form shows both Union Berlin and Köln averaging around 5 points in their last matches but with low goal returns, indicating tight contests with attacking pressure focused on wing play and set pieces. Both teams have a 40% rate for Over 2.5 goals but higher corner involvement, aligning with the Over 9.5 Corners pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Union Berlin Over 2.5
40%1. FC Köln Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals tally is 2.6, indicating moderately open games. Over the last five matches, both teams have shown a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting a balanced tempo that favors set-piece chances and corner accumulation rather than high scoring alone.

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