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Strasbourg crestStrasbourg
v
Auxerre crestAuxerre

Ligue 1 | Sun 01 Nov, 14:00

Strasbourg v Auxerre Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 20:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Ligue 1 clash at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps features Auxerre fighting to escape relegation pressure while Strasbourg push for European qualification. Auxerre have struggled offensively, failing to score in their last three home matches, and are missing key defensive players through injury, which weakens their lineup. Strasbourg arrive with strong momentum, having won six of the last seven meetings and boasting a potent attack led by Joaquin Panichelli. Strasbourg's technical superiority and recent form suggest they will control possession and create more scoring chances, making them clear favorites despite playing away.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Strasbourg to Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 56%, above the 27% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Strasbourg have won 6 of the last 7 meetings against Auxerre.
  • Auxerre have failed to score in their last 3 home Ligue 1 matches.
  • Joaquin Panichelli leads Strasbourg with 14 league goals, nearly matching Auxerre's total team goals.
  • Strasbourg average 52% possession and 87.9% pass accuracy, indicating strong control and chance creation.
Price warning

Strasbourg to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 56% while the model sits nearer 27% (-28.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Auxerre Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 1.95.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

Strasbourg's clear tactical and historical advantages underpin the pick despite the short price. Their superior attacking output, led by Joaquin Panichelli, contrasts sharply with Auxerre's blunt home attack and injury-hit defense. Strasbourg's ability to control possession and create quality chances, combined with Auxerre's recent goal drought and defensive vulnerabilities, supports the likelihood of an away win. However, the current are short relative to the model's chance, so this is a football-led selection rather than a pure value bet. Reduced staking or waiting for drift is advised.

Head-to-head control6 wins in last 7 meetings
Strong positive
Auxerre home scoring drought0 goals in last 3 home matches
Strong positive
Strasbourg attacking depth40 league goals this season
Strong positive
Price sensitivity27% model chance vs 55.6% implied (-28.6 pts)
Negative
Auxerre injury impact4 key players missing
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Strasbourg's superior offensive firepower and recent control over Auxerre make them the logical choice to win this fixture. Auxerre's inability to score at home and injury absences weaken their chances, while Strasbourg's technical control and clinical finishing provide a strong foundation for victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and key player impact

“Strasbourg's blend of attacking quality and tactical control, combined with Auxerre's scoring woes and defensive absences, sets the stage for an away win. Joaquin Panichelli's finishing prowess will be key in breaking down a resilient but blunt Auxerre side.”

Key Data Signals

Strasbourg to Win evidence

Strasbourg have won 6 of the last 7 meetings against Auxerre.

Auxerre have failed to score in their last 3 home Ligue 1 matches.

Joaquin Panichelli leads Strasbourg with 14 league goals, nearly matching Auxerre's total team goals.

Strasbourg average 52% possession and 87.9% pass accuracy, indicating strong control and chance creation.

What To Watch In The Data

Strasbourg to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.9, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • Strasbourg's style of play and Auxerre's defensive compactness suggest a tactical game with controlled tempo, making an over 2.5 goals outcome less likely but possible if Strasbourg's attacking depth breaks through early.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Strasbourg0.8
Avg goals scored
Auxerre1.6
Strasbourg2.2
Avg goals conceded
Auxerre1.4
Strasbourg80%
BTTS rate
Auxerre80%
Strasbourg80%
Over 2.5 goals
Auxerre60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Given Auxerre's recent home goal drought and Strasbourg's strong defensive record with 10 clean sheets, a low-scoring game with no both teams to score is plausible. Strasbourg's ability to control possession and limit Auxerre's chances supports an under 3.5 goals scenario with BTTS No as a reasonable expectation.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Ligue 1 hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickStrasbourg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 56% · edge -28.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Strasbourg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 27% for Strasbourg to Win sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (-28.6 pts). Auxerre have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Strasbourg. Auxerre average only 0.79 goals per game and have remained scoreless in 12.5% of their total matches, specifically struggling at home recently.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Strasbourg

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 5L
25 Oct 2026A Rennes0-3
17 Oct 2026H Paris Saint Germain1-3
11 Oct 2026A Nice1-2
19 Sep 2026A Paris FC1-2
12 Sep 2026H Monaco1-1

Auxerre

DWLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 4L
25 Oct 2026H Le Mans1-1
18 Oct 2026A Le Havre3-1
11 Oct 2026A Rennes1-4
20 Sep 2026H Stade Brestois 292-1
12 Sep 2026H Nice1-0
Market aligned with main pickStrasbourg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 56% · edge -28.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Strasbourg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Strasbourg's recent form shows a slight dip with only 1 point in their last match, but their overall momentum and remain higher than Auxerre's, who have earned 10 points recently but struggle to score at home. Strasbourg's attacking consistency and Auxerre's scoring difficulties at home frame the expectation for an away win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Strasbourg Over 2.5
60%Auxerre Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.9, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. Strasbourg's style of play and Auxerre's defensive compactness suggest a tactical game with controlled tempo, making an over 2.5 goals outcome less likely but possible if Strasbourg's attacking depth breaks through early.

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