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Cittadella crestCittadella
v
Treviso crestTreviso

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 01 Nov, 13:30

Cittadella v Treviso Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 08:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cittadella hosts Treviso in a Serie C - Girone A clash where both teams show disciplined defensive records and moderate scoring rates. Cittadella leads the group with 27 points, demonstrating a solid defensive foundation conceding just 0.8 goals per game, while Treviso ranks fifth with 19 points and an even tighter defense allowing 0.4 goals per match. Recent form data highlights cautious attacking approaches, suggesting a tactical battle likely to limit goal-scoring opportunities in this midweek fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Cittadella concedes only 0.8 goals per game, indicating strong defensive organization
  • Treviso has an even lower concession rate at 0.4 goals per match, emphasizing defensive solidity
  • Cittadella’s Over 2.5 Goals rate is 60%, but Treviso’s is just 20%, showing contrasting attacking tendencies
  • Both teams have low BTTS rates (Cittadella 40%, Treviso 20%), supporting a low-scoring outcome
  • No previous head-to-head data, increasing the importance of recent defensive form and standings

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 64% chance, reflecting the defensive strengths of both Cittadella and Treviso. Despite Cittadella’s moderate Over 2.5 rate, Treviso’s conservative attacking output and low goals conceded suggest a match controlled by defensive discipline. The at 1.67 offer a small positive , indicating this market is a reasonable choice given the tactical context and recent form. The absence of head-to-head data places greater emphasis on current season defensive metrics and league positioning.

Model Chance64% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+4.1 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance64% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+4.1 pts)
Positive
Value Edge64% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+4.1 pts)
Positive
Recent Defensive FormStrong for both teams
Strong positive
Lack of Head-to-Head DataNo prior meetings
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sound pick given the defensive discipline shown by both sides this season. Cittadella’s position at the top of the table is built on a solid backline, while Treviso’s stingy defense further limits scoring chances. The tactical setup and recent form data suggest a cautious game with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive discipline and tactical caution

“This fixture is likely to be a tactical chess match with both teams prioritizing defensive stability. The low goals conceded and modest attacking output from Treviso make Under 2.5 Goals a logical selection.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Cittadella concedes only 0.8 goals per game, indicating strong defensive organization

Treviso has an even lower concession rate at 0.4 goals per match, emphasizing defensive solidity

Both teams have low BTTS rates (Cittadella 40%, Treviso 20%), supporting a low-scoring outcome

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, Cittadella has a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, but Treviso only 20%, indicating contrasting tendencies.
  • The average goals trend suggests a moderate tempo with defensive gaps limited, making Over 2.5 Goals less likely in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cittadella1.6
Avg goals scored
Treviso1
Cittadella0.8
Avg goals conceded
Treviso0.4
Cittadella40%
BTTS rate
Treviso20%
Cittadella60%
Over 2.5 goals
Treviso20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +4.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Both teams have low BTTS rates, with Treviso scoring and conceding less than one goal per game. This controlled goal environment suggests a match where either side may struggle to break through, supporting a low-scoring outcome without both teams necessarily scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionTreviso Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
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Treviso to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Cittadella Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Cittadella to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
The 64% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+4.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Cittadella and 20% for Treviso, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cittadella

LWWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 0D 2L
24 Oct 2026A Union Brescia1-2
19 Oct 2026H Arzignano Valchiampo1-0
10 Oct 2026A Novara2-0
03 Oct 2026H Albinoleffe1-2
26 Sep 2026H Lecco3-0

Treviso

WWLDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
24 Oct 2026H Dolomiti Bellunesi2-1
17 Oct 2026A Folgore Caratese2-0
11 Oct 2026H Ospitaletto0-1
04 Oct 2026H Giana Erminio0-0
27 Sep 2026A Renate1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Treviso Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 52%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Treviso to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Cittadella Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Cittadella to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Recent form shows Cittadella averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, while Treviso scores 1 and concedes only 0.4. This trend highlights defensive solidity and moderate attacking output, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Cittadella Over 2.5
20%Treviso Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Cittadella has a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, but Treviso only 20%, indicating contrasting tendencies. The average goals trend suggests a moderate tempo with defensive gaps limited, making Over 2.5 Goals less likely in this fixture.

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