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Wolfsberger AC crestWolfsberger AC
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Sturm Graz crestSturm Graz

Bundesliga | Sun 01 Nov, 13:30

Wolfsberger AC v Sturm Graz Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 20:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Bundesliga clash features Sturm Graz visiting Wolfsberger AC, with Sturm Graz in strong form and positioned fourth in the league, holding 18 points compared to Wolfsberger AC's 12th place and 5 points. Sturm Graz's attack has been potent, averaging 2.4 goals per game, while Wolfsberger AC struggles offensively with just 0.2 goals per game recently. The visitors' defensive solidity and attacking efficiency set the stage for a confident away performance, though Wolfsberger AC's home resilience could add some unpredictability to the contest.

BT4Y best bet

Sturm Graz to Win

  • Sturm Graz ranks 4th with 18 points; Wolfsberger AC is 12th with 5 points.
  • Sturm Graz averages 2.4 goals per game, Wolfsberger AC only 0.2 recently.
  • Sturm Graz has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, Wolfsberger AC 60%.
  • Sturm Graz averages 18.2 shots and 6.2 shots on target per game, Wolfsberger AC 14.2 and 3.2 respectively.
  • Diakité leads with 6 goals and nearly 3 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sturm Graz to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, attacking output, and league standing. Sturm Graz's high shot volume and goal threat, led by O. Diakité's prolific scoring and shooting accuracy, underpin this . Wolfsberger AC's low scoring rate and defensive vulnerabilities further tilt the balance. The current offer positive value, aligning well with the model's assessment and the tactical advantage Sturm Graz holds in this matchup.

Recent form and pointsSturm Graz 10 points vs Wolfsberger AC 0 points in recent matches
Strong positive
Goal scoring rateSturm Graz 2.4 goals/game vs Wolfsberger AC 0.2 goals/game
Strong positive
Shots and shots on targetSturm Graz 18.2 shots, 6.2 SOT vs Wolfsberger AC 14.2 shots, 3.2 SOT
Positive
League positionSturm Graz 4th vs Wolfsberger AC 12th
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sturm Graz’s superior attacking firepower and recent form make them the clear favorite in this fixture. Their ability to generate high-quality chances, combined with Wolfsberger AC’s struggles to score and defend effectively, suggests a strong likelihood of an away win. Tactical control and clinical finishing should see Sturm Graz capitalize on this advantage.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Sturm Graz

“Sturm Graz’s dynamic offense, spearheaded by O. Diakité, and their consistent form provide a tactical edge that should translate into a decisive away victory in this Bundesliga encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Sturm Graz to Win evidence

Sturm Graz ranks 4th with 18 points; Wolfsberger AC is 12th with 5 points.

Sturm Graz averages 2.4 goals per game, Wolfsberger AC only 0.2 recently.

Sturm Graz has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, Wolfsberger AC 60%.

Sturm Graz averages 18.2 shots and 6.2 shots on target per game, Wolfsberger AC 14.2 and 3.2 respectively.

What To Watch In The Data

Sturm Graz to Win notes

  • The last 10 meetings between these teams have averaged 3.2 goals per game, indicating a tendency for open, attacking matches.
  • Sturm Graz’s recent matches show an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting this fixture is likely to follow a similar pattern with multiple scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Wolfsberger AC0.2
Avg goals scored
Sturm Graz2.4
Wolfsberger AC2.6
Avg goals conceded
Sturm Graz1.4
Wolfsberger AC20%
BTTS rate
Sturm Graz60%
Wolfsberger AC60%
Over 2.5 goals
Sturm Graz80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 83% vs implied 86% · edge -2.6 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 44%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Sturm Graz’s matches have a high frequency of over 2.5 goals (80%) and a 60% rate of both teams scoring, indicating open games with attacking intent. Wolfsberger AC’s lower BTTS rate (20%) suggests they often fail to score, but Sturm Graz’s offensive strength may overcome this, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSturm Graz to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 60% · edge +10.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Sturm Graz Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 70% for Sturm Graz to Win sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+10.1 pts). Sturm Graz have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 0 for Wolfsberger AC.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Wolfsberger AC

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 7L
24 Oct 2026A TSV Hartberg0-1
18 Oct 2026H WSG Wattens0-2
11 Oct 2026A SCR Altach0-3
20 Sep 2026A Ried1-4
12 Sep 2026H Rapid Vienna0-3

Sturm Graz

DWWLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
25 Oct 2026H Ried2-2
18 Oct 2026H Grazer AK6-1
10 Oct 2026A Austria Vienna2-0
20 Sep 2026A Red Bull Salzburg0-3
13 Sep 2026H Lask Linz2-1
Market aligned with main pickSturm Graz to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 60% · edge +10.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Sturm Graz Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Sturm Graz’s recent form is strong with 10 points gained and an average of 2.4 goals scored per game, contrasting sharply with Wolfsberger AC’s 0 points and 0.2 goals scored. This momentum gap underlines Sturm Graz’s and attacking efficiency heading into the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Wolfsberger AC Over 2.5
80%Sturm Graz Over 2.5
3.2H2H avg goals
The last 10 meetings between these teams have averaged 3.2 goals per game, indicating a tendency for open, attacking matches. Sturm Graz’s recent matches show an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting this fixture is likely to follow a similar pattern with multiple scoring opportunities.

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