Football Stats Hub

Gubbio crestGubbio
v
Vis Pesaro crestVis Pesaro

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 01 Nov, 13:30

Gubbio v Vis Pesaro Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 08:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Vis Pesaro visits Gubbio in a Serie C - Girone B clash where both teams struggle near the bottom of the table. Vis Pesaro, ranked 20th with 4 points, seeks to improve after a recent win, while Gubbio sits just above with 7 points but has shown limited offensive threat. The match promises tactical caution with Vis Pesaro aiming to capitalize on their recent momentum and defensive solidity, despite conceding slightly more goals on average. This fixture is pivotal for Vis Pesaro to gain vital points and climb from the relegation zone.

BT4Y best bet

Vis Pesaro to Win

  • Vis Pesaro holds a 58.6% to win, offering strong value at 3.6 .
  • Recent form favors Vis Pesaro, who secured 3 points in their last matches compared to Gubbio's 0.
  • Vis Pesaro’s over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, indicating potential for more open play.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.7 per match, suggesting a moderately scoring encounter.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Vis Pesaro to win with a 58.6% probability, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 27.8%, highlighting a strong value opportunity. Despite their low league standing, Vis Pesaro’s recent form and higher over 2.5 goals rate suggest they can break through Gubbio’s defense. The model is solid at 58%, supported by Vis Pesaro’s ability to score and recent positive results. This pick balances statistical evidence with tactical potential for an away win in a crucial relegation battle.

Model Probability42.8% model chance vs 27.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance42.8% model chance vs 27.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormVis Pesaro 3 points vs Gubbio 0
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateVis Pesaro 80% vs Gubbio 20%
Positive
League PositionBoth teams near bottom
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Vis Pesaro’s recent win and higher attacking output make them the tactical favorite to claim three points despite their low league position. Their ability to score and pressure Gubbio’s defense aligns with the data-driven model pick, making an away victory a credible outcome in this relegation battle.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Vis Pesaro’s recent form and attacking tendencies suggest they can overcome Gubbio’s defensive challenges, making their win a compelling prospect in this tight contest.”

Key Data Signals

Vis Pesaro to Win evidence

Vis Pesaro holds a 58.6% to win, offering strong value at 3.6 .

Recent form favors Vis Pesaro, who secured 3 points in their last matches compared to Gubbio's 0.

Vis Pesaro’s over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, indicating potential for more open play.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.7 per match, suggesting a moderately scoring encounter.

What To Watch In The Data

Vis Pesaro to Win notes

  • The last ten head-to-head matches average 2.7 goals, indicating a moderately open tempo with goal-scoring opportunities.
  • Vis Pesaro’s recent matches show a strong over 2.5 goals trend, suggesting this fixture could see multiple goals and attacking play from the away side.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gubbio0.2
Avg goals scored
Vis Pesaro1
Gubbio2
Avg goals conceded
Vis Pesaro2.2
Gubbio20%
BTTS rate
Vis Pesaro60%
Gubbio20%
Over 2.5 goals
Vis Pesaro80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 78% · edge -2 pts
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Vis Pesaro’s high over 2.5 goals rate of 80% contrasts with Gubbio’s 20%, suggesting Vis Pesaro’s matches tend to be more open and attacking. The head-to-head average of 2.7 goals per game supports the likelihood of goals, with a moderate chance both teams score given Vis Pesaro’s 60% BTTS rate.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickVis Pesaro to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
Vis Pesaro Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 42.8% for Vis Pesaro to Win sits against roughly 27.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Vis Pesaro have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Gubbio.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

player stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gubbio

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
23 Oct 2026A Pineto0-1
18 Oct 2026H Atalanta II0-2
10 Oct 2026A Spezia0-2
03 Oct 2026H Perugia1-3
27 Sep 2026A Ravenna0-2

Vis Pesaro

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 8L
28 Oct 2026A Atalanta II1-2
24 Oct 2026H Ravenna0-4
18 Oct 2026A Latina0-1
10 Oct 2026H Grosseto2-3
27 Sep 2026H Guidonia Montecelio 19372-1
Market aligned with main pickVis Pesaro to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Vis Pesaro Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Vis Pesaro’s recent form shows a positive trend with 3 points gained, contrasting with Gubbio’s winless run. This momentum boost for Vis Pesaro enhances their and tactical execution, increasing their chances to secure an away victory in this crucial match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Gubbio Over 2.5
80%Vis Pesaro Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
The last ten head-to-head matches average 2.7 goals, indicating a moderately open tempo with goal-scoring opportunities. Vis Pesaro’s recent matches show a strong over 2.5 goals trend, suggesting this fixture could see multiple goals and attacking play from the away side.

Loading deeper match data…