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Başakşehir crestBaşakşehir
v
Samsunspor crestSamsunspor

Süper Lig | Sun 01 Nov, 13:00

Başakşehir v Samsunspor Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 08:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Başakşehir hosts Samsunspor in a Süper Lig clash where Başakşehir aims to capitalize on their stronger recent form and home advantage. Başakşehir has collected 11 points, sitting 12th, while Samsunspor lingers near the relegation zone with just 4 points. Başakşehir's attack, led by key players like Edin Shomurodov, shows more goal threat and better shot accuracy compared to Samsunspor, who have struggled defensively and offensively. The match presents a tactical battle where Başakşehir's more cohesive play and home comfort could prove decisive against a Samsunspor side seeking to arrest a poor run.

BT4Y best bet

Başakşehir to Win

  • Başakşehir has a 74% to win, significantly above the implied chance of 55.6%.
  • Başakşehir's recent form shows 7 points gained with a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating attacking intent.
  • Samsunspor concedes an average of 3 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Key Başakşehir players like E. Shomurodov average over 1 shot on target per 90 minutes, supporting goal threat.
  • Samsunspor's higher fouling rate and card risk may disrupt their rhythm and lead to disciplinary issues.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Başakşehir to win due to their superior recent form, higher goal threat, and home advantage. Başakşehir averages more shots on target and has a more effective attack led by Edin Shomurodov, who scores frequently. Samsunspor's defensive record is poor, conceding 3 goals per game on average, which increases the likelihood of Başakşehir scoring and winning. The price offers positive value with an 18.4% edge, reflecting the model's in Başakşehir's ability to secure victory.

Recent FormBaşakşehir 7 points vs Samsunspor 0 points
Strong positive
Goal ThreatBaşakşehir's E. Shomurodov 7 goals, 1.07 SOT/90
Strong positive
Defensive WeaknessSamsunspor concedes 3 goals per game
Strong positive
Price Value70.6% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
DisciplineSamsunspor higher fouls and card risk
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Başakşehir's home advantage and superior attacking form make them the clear tactical and statistical favorite to win this match. Their ability to convert chances, especially through key players like Edin Shomurodov, combined with Samsunspor's defensive struggles, supports a confident selection for a Başakşehir victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Başakşehir's consistent attacking output and home form create a strong foundation for victory, while Samsunspor's defensive frailties and disciplinary issues add to their challenges in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Başakşehir to Win evidence

Başakşehir has a 74% to win, significantly above the implied chance of 55.6%.

Başakşehir's recent form shows 7 points gained with a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating attacking intent.

Samsunspor concedes an average of 3 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Key Başakşehir players like E. Shomurodov average over 1 shot on target per 90 minutes, supporting goal threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Başakşehir to Win notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, supporting a moderate scoring environment.
  • Both teams' recent Over 2.5 Goals rates suggest a tendency for open play and goal-scoring chances, indicating this match could see multiple goals through attacking tempo and defensive gaps.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Başakşehir1.2
Avg goals scored
Samsunspor0.6
Başakşehir1.6
Avg goals conceded
Samsunspor3
Başakşehir20%
BTTS rate
Samsunspor60%
Başakşehir60%
Over 2.5 goals
Samsunspor80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 79% vs implied 85% · edge -5.4 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 43%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Başakşehir's matches have a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Samsunspor's games see 80% Over 2.5, indicating a high likelihood of goals in this fixture. Samsunspor concedes heavily, and Başakşehir's attacking players average strong shot volumes, suggesting both teams may score but with a clear edge to Başakşehir's scoring potential.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBaşakşehir to WinBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Başakşehir Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 70.6% for Başakşehir to Win sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Başakşehir have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 0 for Samsunspor.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Başakşehir

LWDWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 4L
26 Oct 2026A Beşiktaş0-2
18 Oct 2026H Gaziantep FK2-1
11 Oct 2026A Konyaspor0-0
19 Sep 2026H Gençlerbirliği S.K.4-0
13 Sep 2026A Amed0-5

Samsunspor

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 7L
24 Oct 2026H Amed1-2
18 Oct 2026A Kasımpaşa1-4
10 Oct 2026H Trabzonspor0-3
20 Sep 2026A Erzurumspor FK0-1
12 Sep 2026H Çorum FK1-5
Market aligned with main pickBaşakşehir to WinBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Başakşehir Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Başakşehir has gained 7 points recently, showing improved attacking output and defensive resilience compared to Samsunspor, who have failed to earn points in the same period. Başakşehir's form is reflected in their better goal-scoring rate and more consistent performances, giving them momentum and going into this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Başakşehir Over 2.5
80%Samsunspor Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.6, supporting a moderate scoring environment. Both teams' recent Over 2.5 Goals rates suggest a tendency for open play and goal-scoring chances, indicating this match could see multiple goals through attacking tempo and defensive gaps.

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