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IF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg
v
Orgryte IS crestOrgryte IS

Allsvenskan | Sun 01 Nov, 15:30

IF Elfsborg v Orgryte IS Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 22:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

IF Elfsborg visit Orgryte IS in a crucial Allsvenskan clash where defensive solidity and recent form set the tone. Elfsborg have conceded just nine goals in ten matches, showcasing a disciplined back line led by Sebastian Holmen and Thomas Isherwood. Orgryte IS arrive on a four-match losing streak, having conceded 11 goals in that span, compounded by suspensions and injuries that weaken their defensive depth. While Elfsborg's attack has lacked fluency recently, their ability to control tempo and exploit defensive errors makes them favorites. Orgryte's struggle to balance attack and defense under pressure suggests Elfsborg can capitalize, especially if they score early and force the hosts into mistakes.

BT4Y best bet

IF Elfsborg Win & Over 2.5 Goals

  • Elfsborg have conceded only nine goals in ten league games, highlighting defensive strength.
  • Orgryte IS have lost four consecutive matches, conceding 11 goals in that run.
  • Elfsborg won four of the last six meetings, showing historical control.
  • Orgryte IS face key absences, including suspended Jerome Tibbling, weakening their defense.
  • Elfsborg's recent matches show a tendency for over 2.5 goals, aligning with attacking opportunities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors IF Elfsborg to win with over 2.5 goals due to their strong defensive record and Orgryte IS's recent defensive vulnerabilities. Elfsborg's structured defense limits opposition chances, while Orgryte's ongoing struggles and injuries increase the likelihood of conceding multiple goals. The model's 56.8% chance and significant at 8/1 reflect a well-supported football scenario where Elfsborg's control and Orgryte's fragility combine for a high-scoring away win. The sample size is solid, with no data limitations affecting .

Defensive SolidityStrong defensive record with only 9 goals conceded in 10 matches
Strong positive
Opponent FormOrgryte IS lost 4 straight, conceding 11 goals
Strong positive
Historical H2HElfsborg won 4 of last 6 meetings
Positive
Injuries/SuspensionsKey defensive absences weaken Orgryte IS
Positive
Price Value56.8% model chance vs 11.1% implied (+45.7 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

IF Elfsborg's disciplined defensive structure and superior recent form position them well to secure a win. Their ability to control the game tempo and exploit Orgryte IS's defensive frailties, especially amid the hosts' injury woes, makes an away victory with multiple goals a compelling outcome. The tactical balance favors Elfsborg maintaining composure and capitalizing on mistakes.

Main risk

The other is organised and difficult to break down, but not ruthless enough to dominate games.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Elfsborg

“Elfsborg's defensive resilience combined with Orgryte's ongoing struggles creates a tactical mismatch that should allow the visitors to control the game and score multiple goals. Their ability to remain compact and exploit transitions is key to breaking down a vulnerable home side.”

Key Data Signals

IF Elfsborg Win & Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Elfsborg have conceded only nine goals in ten league games, highlighting defensive strength.

Orgryte IS have lost four consecutive matches, conceding 11 goals in that run.

Elfsborg won four of the last six meetings, showing historical control.

Orgryte IS face key absences, including suspended Jerome Tibbling, weakening their defense.

What To Watch In The Data

IF Elfsborg Win & Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last three head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 4.33 goals, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals.
  • Both teams have high over 2.5 goals rates recently (Elfsborg 80%, Orgryte 100%), suggesting this fixture is likely to see a lively tempo and goal-scoring opportunities, driven by Orgryte's defensive lapses and Elfsborg's attacking pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

IF Elfsborg2
Avg goals scored
Orgryte IS1.6
IF Elfsborg1
Avg goals conceded
Orgryte IS2.2
IF Elfsborg60%
BTTS rate
Orgryte IS80%
IF Elfsborg80%
Over 2.5 goals
Orgryte IS100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Despite Orgryte's defensive struggles, the BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals context highlights Elfsborg's modest attacking output of 14 goals in ten matches. The match is likely to feature a controlled Elfsborg performance with goals primarily from the visitors, suggesting a game with multiple goals but not an open shootout.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickIF Elfsborg to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 74% · edge -0.4 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
IF Elfsborg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
The 56.8% for IF Elfsborg Win & Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 11.1% implied by the current price (+45.7 pts). Elfsborg boast a resilient defensive unit that has conceded only nine goals all season.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

IF Elfsborg

DDDWW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
27 Oct 2026A AIK Stockholm2-2
23 Oct 2026H Malmo FF0-0
18 Oct 2026A Sirius2-2
12 Oct 2026H Halmstad4-0
20 Sep 2026A Djurgardens IF2-1

Orgryte IS

LDWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
29 Oct 2026H Mjallby AIF1-2
24 Oct 2026A Djurgardens IF2-2
18 Oct 2026H Gais4-2
11 Oct 2026A BK Hacken0-3
19 Sep 2026H Sirius1-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 86% vs implied 91% · edge -4.9 pts
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
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IF Elfsborg to WinBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
IF Elfsborg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Elfsborg's recent form includes 9 points with a strong defensive record, conceding just 1 goal on average, while Orgryte IS have managed only 4 points and concede 2.2 goals per game. Elfsborg's 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals contrasts with Orgryte's 100%, reflecting a trend toward higher-scoring games involving these teams, supporting the combined win and goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%IF Elfsborg Over 2.5
100%Orgryte IS Over 2.5
4.33H2H avg goals
The last three head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 4.33 goals, indicating a tendency for open games with multiple goals. Both teams have high over 2.5 goals rates recently (Elfsborg 80%, Orgryte 100%), suggesting this fixture is likely to see a lively tempo and goal-scoring opportunities, driven by Orgryte's defensive lapses and Elfsborg's attacking pressure.

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