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Salernitana crestSalernitana
v
Savoia crestSavoia

Serie C - Girone C | Sun 01 Nov, 13:30

Salernitana v Savoia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 08:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Salernitana and Savoia meet in Serie C - Girone C, both aiming to improve their mid-to-lower table positions. Recent matches indicate a tendency for open play, with Salernitana showing a strong inclination towards higher-scoring games. Both teams have struggled defensively, conceding over 1.5 goals per match on average, which sets the stage for a potentially goal-rich encounter. Tactical setups suggest Salernitana will push forward aggressively at home, while Savoia's defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Salernitana has an 80% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals this season.
  • Savoia's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 60% of the time, indicating openness.
  • Both teams concede more than 1.5 goals per game on average, suggesting defensive frailties.
  • No previous head-to-head data, so recent form and season stats guide expectations.
  • Both sides have similar BTTS rates at 60%, supporting goal-scoring chances from both teams.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 57.5% chance for over 2.5 goals, slightly above the implied market probability, indicating a small positive value. Salernitana's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) combined with Savoia's defensive record and 60% over 2.5 rate supports an open game with multiple scoring opportunities. The lack of head-to-head data places more emphasis on recent form and season-long trends, which favor a goal-abundant match. This makes Over 2.5 Goals a sensible selection with a standard stake recommendation.

Salernitana Over 2.5 Goals Rate80%
Strong positive
Savoia Over 2.5 Goals Rate60%
Positive
Average Goals Conceded per MatchSalernitana 1.6, Savoia 2.0
Positive
Model Probability vs Market Implied Chance57.5% model chance vs 57.1% implied (+0.4 pts)
Positive
No Head-to-Head Data0 matches
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as Salernitana looks to capitalize on home advantage against a defensively vulnerable Savoia. The high frequency of over 2.5 goals in Salernitana's matches and Savoia's porous defense suggest multiple goals are likely, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“Salernitana's offensive approach combined with Savoia's defensive struggles creates a fertile ground for goals. The statistical trends strongly point towards a lively match with at least three goals scored.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Salernitana has an 80% rate of matches with over 2.5 goals this season.

Savoia's matches have gone over 2.5 goals 60% of the time, indicating openness.

Both teams concede more than 1.5 goals per game on average, suggesting defensive frailties.

No previous head-to-head data, so recent form and season stats guide expectations.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • No head-to-head data exists for this fixture, so recent trends are drawn from the last ten matches of each team.
  • Salernitana's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Savoia's 60% rate over recent games suggest a tempo favoring open play and multiple goals.
  • This trend panel indicates a solid chance for at least three goals in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Salernitana1
Avg goals scored
Savoia1
Salernitana1.6
Avg goals conceded
Savoia2
Salernitana60%
BTTS rate
Savoia60%
Salernitana80%
Over 2.5 goals
Savoia60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 57% · edge +0.4 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating a balanced chance for both sides to score. Salernitana's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Savoia's 60% rate reflect a tendency for matches with multiple goals. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides support an open game with goal-scoring opportunities from both teams, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals angle.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 57% · edge +0.4 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Savoia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Savoia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Salernitana Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Salernitana to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
The 57.5% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 57.1% implied by the current price (+0.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Salernitana and 60% for Savoia, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Salernitana

LDDWL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
26 Oct 2026A AZ Picerno0-3
17 Oct 2026H Scafatese2-2
11 Oct 2026A Casarano0-0
04 Oct 2026H Bari2-1
26 Sep 2026A Crotone1-2

Savoia

DLWDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
24 Oct 2026H Cosenza1-1
18 Oct 2026A Audace Cerignola0-4
10 Oct 2026H Inter U232-1
03 Oct 2026A SS Monopoli0-0
26 Sep 2026A Cavese2-4
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Savoia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Savoia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Salernitana Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Salernitana to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Recent form shows Salernitana scoring only 1 goal in their last matches but with a high over 2.5 goals match rate of 80%, indicating games with multiple goals overall. Savoia also has a 60% over 2.5 rate despite scoring fewer goals, suggesting their matches are open and prone to conceding. This recent form data supports expectations of a high-scoring encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Salernitana Over 2.5
60%Savoia Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
No head-to-head data exists for this fixture, so recent trends are drawn from the last ten matches of each team. Salernitana's 80% over 2.5 goals rate and Savoia's 60% rate over recent games suggest a tempo favoring open play and multiple goals. This trend panel indicates a solid chance for at least three goals in this match.

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