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St. Truiden crestSt. Truiden
v
OH Leuven crestOH Leuven

Jupiler Pro League | Sun 01 Nov, 15:00

St. Truiden v OH Leuven Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 22:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Jupiler Pro League clash features St. Truiden hosting OH Leuven, both teams battling near the lower end of the table with St. Truiden 13th and OH Leuven 16th. Truiden have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game, while OH Leuven have been more resilient, conceding 1.4 per match. OH Leuven's recent form shows slightly better momentum with 6 points from recent matches compared to St. This fixture carries importance for both sides aiming to climb away from the relegation zone, with tactical caution likely from OH Leuven to secure at least a draw.

BT4Y best bet

OH Leuven or Draw

  • OH Leuven or Draw offers strong value at 2.25 with a 79.4% versus 44.4% implied chance.
  • Truiden concede 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • OH Leuven have a higher BTTS rate (60%) and better recent form points (6 vs 3).
  • Truiden average more shots and corners, but OH Leuven's defensive solidity supports a draw or away double chance.
  • Key OH Leuven attacker E. Addai shows high shot volume and goal threat, enhancing their scoring potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors OH Leuven or Draw with a 79.4% chance, highlighting the defensive frailties of St. Truiden who concede 2.2 goals per game. OH Leuven's more stable defense and recent form edge make avoiding defeat plausible. The price at 2.25 offers positive value given the implied chance is only 44.4%. OH Leuven's attacking threat, led by E. Addai's high shot and shot-on-target rates, supports their ability to score and secure points. This pick balances the home side's offensive pressure with OH Leuven's resilience and counter-attacking potential.

Model Chance36.1% model chance vs 21.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance36.1% model chance vs 21.1% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
St. Truiden Goals Against2.2 per game
Strong positive
OH Leuven Recent Form Points6 vs 3
Positive
E. Addai Shot Volume6 shots/90 mins
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

OH Leuven or Draw is a solid tactical choice given OH Leuven's better recent form and defensive stability compared to St. Truiden's leaky backline. The away side's ability to avoid defeat is supported by their resilience and key attacking players like E. Addai, making this a sensible bet in a tight relegation battle.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and player impact

“OH Leuven's defensive discipline combined with Addai's attacking threat makes the away double chance a compelling option against a vulnerable St.”

Key Data Signals

OH Leuven or Draw evidence

OH Leuven or Draw offers strong value at 2.25 with a 79.4% versus 44.4% implied chance.

Truiden concede 2.2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.

OH Leuven have a higher BTTS rate (60%) and better recent form points (6 vs 3).

Truiden average more shots and corners, but OH Leuven's defensive solidity supports a draw or away double chance.

What To Watch In The Data

OH Leuven or Draw notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.3 per game, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • Truiden's 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with OH Leuven's 40%, suggesting St.
  • Truiden's matches tend to be higher scoring.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

St. Truiden1.8
Avg goals scored
OH Leuven1.2
St. Truiden2.2
Avg goals conceded
OH Leuven1.4
St. Truiden40%
BTTS rate
OH Leuven60%
St. Truiden60%
Over 2.5 goals
OH Leuven40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 62% · edge +5 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Truiden's defensive record of conceding 2.2 goals per game contrasts with OH Leuven's 1.4, suggesting potential for goals but also defensive caution from OH Leuven. OH Leuven's 60% BTTS rate indicates they often both score and concede, while St. Truiden's 40% BTTS rate shows less frequent mutual scoring. This dynamic points to a match where OH Leuven can score but also keep the game tight enough to avoid defeat.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

St. Truiden

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 5L
25 Oct 2026A Club Brugge KV2-3
11 Oct 2026A KV Mechelen3-4
20 Sep 2026H KVC Westerlo0-2
12 Sep 2026A SK Beveren0-2
05 Sep 2026H RAAL La Louvière4-0

OH Leuven

DDWDL
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 5L
24 Oct 2026H Lommel United2-2
11 Oct 2026A Union St. Gilloise1-1
19 Sep 2026H RAAL La Louvière2-0
12 Sep 2026H Cercle Brugge1-1
06 Sep 2026A SK Beveren0-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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OH Leuven Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
OH Leuven to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
St. Truiden Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
St. Truiden to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Recent form favors OH Leuven with 6 points compared to St. Truiden's 3, reflecting slightly better momentum. Truiden's higher goals conceded and lower points tally highlight defensive struggles, while OH Leuven's ability to secure points away from home suggests they can at least avoid defeat in this fixture, supporting the away double chance selection.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOH Leuven Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
OH Leuven to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 26%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
St. Truiden Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
The 36.1% for OH Leuven or Draw sits against roughly 21.1% implied by the current price (+15 pts).
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%St. Truiden Over 2.5
40%OH Leuven Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.3 per game, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. Truiden's 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with OH Leuven's 40%, suggesting St. Truiden's matches tend to be higher scoring. This trend suggests a match with goal potential but balanced by OH Leuven's defensive discipline, aligning with a cautious game tempo and the double chance pick.

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