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Arezzo crestArezzo
v
Ascoli crestAscoli

Serie B | Sun 01 Nov, 14:00

Arezzo v Ascoli Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 08:50 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B fixture features Ascoli visiting Arezzo, with Ascoli currently third in the standings and showing strong recent form, having collected 11 points with a solid defensive record conceding just 0.6 goals per game. Arezzo, ranked 14th, have struggled offensively and defensively, scoring under one goal per match and conceding twice as many. Ascoli's attacking efficiency and defensive solidity set the stage for a tactical contest where Ascoli aim to extend their winning momentum and climb closer to the top of the table.

BT4Y best bet

Ascoli to Win

  • Ascoli ranks 3rd with 18 points, showing strong league form.
  • Arezzo has scored only 0.8 goals per game, conceding 2 on average.
  • Ascoli averages 13.8 shots and 5 shots on target per match, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Arezzo's recent form includes only 4 points, highlighting struggles.
  • Ascoli's defensive record is solid with just 0.6 goals conceded per game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Ascoli to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior form and efficiency. Ascoli's attack generates more shots and shots on target, while their defense concedes significantly less than Arezzo. The price at 2.15 offers positive value with a 23.5% edge, supported by Ascoli's higher league position and consistent recent results. No data limitations affect , making this a strong, data-backed selection for the away win.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormAscoli 11 points vs Arezzo 4
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthAscoli concedes 0.6 goals/game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Ascoli's tactical discipline and superior recent form make them the clear favorites to win this match. Their ability to limit chances against and create more scoring opportunities is backed by data showing a strong attack and solid defense. This combination supports the away win as the most logical outcome.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Ascoli's consistent attacking threat combined with their defensive resilience positions them well to secure victory here, especially given Arezzo's struggles to maintain defensive solidity.”

Key Data Signals

Ascoli to Win evidence

Ascoli ranks 3rd with 18 points, showing strong league form.

Arezzo has scored only 0.8 goals per game, conceding 2 on average.

Ascoli averages 13.8 shots and 5 shots on target per match, indicating offensive pressure.

Arezzo's recent form includes only 4 points, highlighting struggles.

What To Watch In The Data

Ascoli to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Arezzo has an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, while Ascoli's matches reach this threshold 40% of the time.
  • The average goals per game in their recent head-to-head is 2.2, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo with potential for goals but also defensive containment, especially from Ascoli.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Arezzo0.8
Avg goals scored
Ascoli2.4
Arezzo2
Avg goals conceded
Ascoli0.6
Arezzo60%
BTTS rate
Ascoli60%
Arezzo80%
Over 2.5 goals
Ascoli40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 57% · edge +9.6 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have moderate BTTS rates at 60%, but Arezzo's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Ascoli's more conservative 40%. This suggests a match with potential for goals but possibly controlled by Ascoli's defensive strength, making a straightforward BTTS or over/under prediction less certain.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAscoli to WinBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Ascoli Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 61.5% for Ascoli to Win sits against roughly 46.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Ascoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Arezzo.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Arezzo

LLWDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 5L
28 Oct 2026A Carrarese1-2
24 Oct 2026H Benevento0-3
18 Oct 2026A Sampdoria2-1
10 Oct 2026H Cremonese0-0
20 Sep 2026H Sudtirol1-4

Ascoli

WWDDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 1L
27 Oct 2026H Sampdoria2-0
24 Oct 2026A Catanzaro6-1
17 Oct 2026H Empoli1-1
10 Oct 2026A Sudtirol0-0
19 Sep 2026H Avellino3-1
Market aligned with main pickAscoli to WinBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Ascoli Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Ascoli's recent form is strong, accumulating 11 points with a solid defense conceding only 0.6 goals per game, contrasting with Arezzo's 4 points and weaker defensive record. This form disparity highlights Ascoli's momentum and ability to control matches, supporting their chances to win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Arezzo Over 2.5
40%Ascoli Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Arezzo has an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, while Ascoli's matches reach this threshold 40% of the time. The average goals per game in their recent head-to-head is 2.2, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo with potential for goals but also defensive containment, especially from Ascoli.

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