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Ukraine crestUkraine
v
Northern Ireland crestNorthern Ireland

UEFA Nations League | Fri 02 Oct, 19:45

Ukraine v Northern Ireland Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 02:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ukraine face Northern Ireland in UEFA Nations League on Fri 02 Oct, 19:45. Northern Ireland's unbeaten defensive record and quick adaptation to League B support the +0.5 Asian Handicap. Ukraine vs Northern Ireland: Unbeaten Defences Face Their First Major Test.

BT4Y best bet

Northern Ireland Asian Handicap +0

  • At 1.53, Northern Ireland Asian Handicap +0 implies roughly 65%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Northern Ireland's higher shot volume suggests they can challenge Ukraine's defence.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Ukraine and 0% for Northern Ireland, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Ukraine are carrying more of the scoring load at 0.5 goals per match, with Northern Ireland at 0.5.
  • BTTS rates of 0% for Ukraine and 0% for Northern Ireland show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Northern Ireland Asian Handicap +0 sits against roughly 65% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Ukraine and 0% for Northern Ireland, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Northern Ireland's higher shot volume suggests they can challenge Ukraine's defence.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 65% implied
Neutral
The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Ukraine and 0%.Visible data support
Positive
Ukraine are carrying more of the scoring load at 0.5.Visible data support
Positive
Northern Ireland's higher shot volume suggests they can challenge.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because ukraine followed a 1-0 victory over Hungary with a goalless draw against Georgia, while Northern Ireland beat Georgia 1-0 before drawing 0-0 with Hungary. Ukraine are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Northern Ireland at 0.5. A 1-1 draw is plausible as both teams have strong defences but limited goals, with Northern Ireland's injury and Ukraine's scoring threat balancing out.

Main risk

A 1-1 draw is plausible as both teams have strong defences but limited goals, with Northern Ireland's injury and Ukraine's scoring threat balancing out.

Key Data Signals

Northern Ireland Asian Handicap +0 evidence

Ukraine followed a 1-0 victory over Hungary with a goalless draw against Georgia, while Northern Ireland beat Georgia.

Ukraine are carrying more of the scoring load at 0.5 goals per match, with Northern Ireland at 0.5.

BTTS rates of 0% for Ukraine and 0% for Northern Ireland show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Northern Ireland Asian Handicap +0 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ukraine0.5
Avg goals scored
Northern Ireland0.5
Ukraine0
Avg goals conceded
Northern Ireland0
Ukraine0%
BTTS rate
Northern Ireland0%
Ukraine0%
Over 2.5 goals
Northern Ireland0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 65% · edge +0.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 0% for Ukraine and 0% for Northern Ireland, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionNorthern Ireland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 37% · edge +4.7 pts
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
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Northern Ireland to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
4
Check odds @ 4
Ukraine to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Ukraine Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Northern Ireland Draw No Bet is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ukraine

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
28 Sep 2026A Georgia0-0
25 Sep 2026A Hungary1-0

Northern Ireland

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
28 Sep 2026H Hungary0-0
25 Sep 2026A Georgia1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 52% · edge +3.2 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Northern Ireland Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Northern Ireland to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
4
Check odds @ 4
Ukraine to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Ukraine Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Ukraine Over 2.5
0%Northern Ireland Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Ukraine sit at 0% and Northern Ireland sit at 0% with the H2H average at 1.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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