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Ospitaletto crestOspitaletto
v
Dolomiti Bellunesi crestDolomiti Bellunesi

Serie C - Girone A | Fri 13 Nov, 19:30

Ospitaletto v Dolomiti Bellunesi Stats

Data last updated: Thu 12 Nov 2026, 01:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ospitaletto faces Dolomiti Bellunesi in a Serie C - Girone A clash where goal-scoring opportunities are expected to be plentiful. Ospitaletto, positioned 4th in the league, have shown moderate attacking output and a balanced defense, while Dolomiti Bellunesi, struggling near the bottom at 19th, have conceded frequently and scored sparingly. The tactical setup suggests an open game with Dolomiti Bellunesi needing to push forward to improve their standing, likely exposing defensive vulnerabilities. Recent form data and league positions set the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter under Friday night lights.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Ospitaletto averages 1 goal per game with a 40% Over 2.5 rate recently
  • Dolomiti Bellunesi concedes 3 goals per game and has an 80% Over 2.5 rate
  • Head-to-head meetings average 4.67 goals per game over last 3 matches
  • Ospitaletto ranks 4th with 22 points; Dolomiti Bellunesi 19th with 10 points
  • Model projects a 61.9% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, showing positive value at 1.85

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 2.5 Goals as a strong bet with a 61.9% probability, supported by both teams' recent attacking and defensive trends. Dolomiti Bellunesi's porous defense and Ospitaletto's consistent goal scoring create conditions conducive to multiple goals. The high average goals in their recent head-to-head matches further reinforce this outlook. The of 1.85 offer a positive of 7.8%, making this a statistically and tactically sound selection for a goal-rich game.

Dolomiti Bellunesi Defensive WeaknessConceding 3 goals per game
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Goal Average4.67 goals per match in last 3
Strong positive
Ospitaletto Goal Scoring1 goal per game with 40% Over 2.5 rate
Positive
Model Probability61.9% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+7.8 pts)
Strong positive
Odds Value Edge61.9% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+7.8 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively match with Ospitaletto's solid league position and Dolomiti Bellunesi's defensive struggles setting the stage for multiple goals. The tactical necessity for Dolomiti Bellunesi to attack increases the likelihood of an open game, while Ospitaletto's balanced offense should capitalize on defensive gaps. This combination supports the Over 2.5 Goals selection as a compelling choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal scoring potential and tactical openness

“The fixture's dynamics, with Dolomiti Bellunesi's leaky defense and Ospitaletto's attacking intent, strongly point towards a high-scoring encounter. The head-to-head goal averages and recent form underline the potential for goals flowing from both sides.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Ospitaletto averages 1 goal per game with a 40% Over 2.5 rate recently

Dolomiti Bellunesi concedes 3 goals per game and has an 80% Over 2.5 rate

Head-to-head meetings average 4.67 goals per game over last 3 matches

Ospitaletto ranks 4th with 22 points; Dolomiti Bellunesi 19th with 10 points

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last three head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 4.67 goals, a notably high figure indicating a history of open, attacking games.
  • This recent trend over a small sample supports the expectation of Over 2.5 Goals, driven by fast tempo, defensive gaps, and effective attacking transitions from both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ospitaletto1
Avg goals scored
Dolomiti Bellunesi0.6
Ospitaletto1
Avg goals conceded
Dolomiti Bellunesi3
Ospitaletto40%
BTTS rate
Dolomiti Bellunesi40%
Ospitaletto40%
Over 2.5 goals
Dolomiti Bellunesi80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 54% · edge +7.8 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 80%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams show contrasting goal trends: Dolomiti Bellunesi's defense concedes heavily, while Ospitaletto maintains a moderate scoring rate. Both teams to score rates are balanced at 40%, indicating that while both sides can find the net, defensive lapses may lead to multiple goals. The high average goals in their recent meetings further support an Over 2.5 scenario with potential for goals at both ends.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 54% · edge +7.8 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Ospitaletto to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Dolomiti Bellunesi Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Ospitaletto Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Dolomiti Bellunesi to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
The 61.9% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.1% implied by the current price (+7.8 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Ospitaletto and 80% for Dolomiti Bellunesi, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ospitaletto

WDLLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
08 Nov 2026A Desenzano Calvina1-0
31 Oct 2026H Trento0-0
25 Oct 2026A PRO Vercelli1-2
18 Oct 2026H Pergolettese2-3
11 Oct 2026A Treviso1-0

Dolomiti Bellunesi

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 7L
07 Nov 2026A PRO Vercelli2-4
01 Nov 2026H Lecco0-4
24 Oct 2026A Treviso1-2
19 Oct 2026H Trento0-3
10 Oct 2026A Desenzano Calvina0-2
Best odds for this sectionOspitaletto to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 69% · edge +5 pts
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Load more odds for this section
Dolomiti Bellunesi Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Ospitaletto Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Dolomiti Bellunesi to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Ospitaletto's recent form shows 7 points with a 40% Over 2.5 rate, indicating moderate goal involvement. Dolomiti Bellunesi's form is weaker with no points and an 80% Over 2.5 rate, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities. This contrast suggests a match where Dolomiti Bellunesi's defensive frailties may be exposed, increasing the likelihood of a high-scoring game consistent with the Over 2.5 selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Ospitaletto Over 2.5
80%Dolomiti Bellunesi Over 2.5
4.67H2H avg goals
The last three head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 4.67 goals, a notably high figure indicating a history of open, attacking games. This recent trend over a small sample supports the expectation of Over 2.5 Goals, driven by fast tempo, defensive gaps, and effective attacking transitions from both sides.

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