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France U21 crestFrance U21
v
Italy U21 crestItaly U21

Friendlies | Fri 13 Nov, 17:30

France U21 v Italy U21 Stats

Data last updated: Thu 12 Nov 2026, 01:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Italy and France face off in a high-stakes Nations League Group A1 clash where top spot is at stake. Italy, under Roberto Mancini, have shown resilience with a recent 3-1 win over Turkey but suffer from significant attacking absences, losing key forwards Kean, Raspadori, and Retegui. France, led by Zinedine Zidane, boast a formidable away record with five consecutive wins and a potent attack featuring Kylian Mbappé and Michael Olise. Historical head-to-heads favor France, who have dominated possession and chances in recent meetings. The tactical battle will likely see France controlling possession while Italy rely on defensive solidity and counter-attacks, with a strong possibility of a low-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

BTTS No

  • Italy's key forwards Kean, Raspadori, and Retegui are unavailable, limiting their attacking threat.
  • France have won four of the last six meetings and hold a strong away record with five straight wins.
  • Italy have lost three of their last four Nations League home matches, showing defensive vulnerability but limited scoring.
  • France have kept two clean sheets in their last four matches, indicating defensive strength.
  • Recent form and tactical setups suggest a tight game with limited goals and a low likelihood of both teams scoring.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The tactical context and recent form data support a low-scoring match with Italy's depleted attack unlikely to breach France's solid defense. France's away control and Italy's home defensive struggles create a scenario where Italy may fail to score, while France's attack is potent but capable of a clean sheet. The model's 55.7% chance for BTTS Yes contrasts with the match context's strong case for BTTS No, emphasizing the defensive constraints on Italy's offense and France's ability to control the game and limit chances. This makes BTTS No a logical selection despite the model's moderate .

Italy's attacking absencesStrong limitation on goal-scoring potential
Strong positive
France's defensive solidityTwo clean sheets in last four matches
Positive
Recent head-to-headFrance control with low scoring draws
Positive
Italy's home defensive strugglesConceded in most recent home matches
Neutral
Model BTTS Yes chance55.7%, moderate confidence
Neutral
Main risk

However, context is vital.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and attacking limitations

“Italy's forward injury crisis severely limits their scoring threat, while France's disciplined defense and away momentum make a clean sheet highly plausible in this tight Nations League contest.”

Key Data Signals

BTTS No evidence

Italy's key forwards Kean, Raspadori, and Retegui are unavailable, limiting their attacking threat.

France have won four of the last six meetings and hold a strong away record with five straight wins.

Italy have lost three of their last four Nations League home matches, showing defensive vulnerability but limited scoring.

France have kept two clean sheets in their last four matches, indicating defensive strength.

What To Watch In The Data

BTTS No notes

  • Over the last meeting between these teams, the average goals scored was 3, but recent trends show a shift towards tighter defenses and fewer goals.
  • France's last five away matches have featured controlled tempo and limited goal concessions.
  • Italy's home matches have seen low goal totals, reinforcing the likelihood of an under 2.5 goals game.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

France U211
Avg goals scored
Italy U211
France U211.33
Avg goals conceded
Italy U210
France U2167%
BTTS rate
Italy U210%
France U2133%
Over 2.5 goals
Italy U210%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 36% · edge +11.9 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The goal-scoring context points to a low-scoring game with Italy's forward line severely weakened by injuries, reducing their ability to score. France's defense has kept two clean sheets in recent matches, and their recent head-to-head encounters with Italy have been low scoring, including a 1-1 draw dominated by France's possession. This supports a BTTS No and under 3.5 goals scenario, emphasizing defensive control and limited attacking threat from Italy.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Friendlies fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for France U21 v Italy U21player stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionItaly U21 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 37% · edge +4.7 pts
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Italy U21 to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
France U21 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
France U21 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 48.3% for BTTS No sits against roughly 36.4% implied by the current price (+11.9 pts). France U21 show a 67% BTTS rate and Italy U21 show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. This guarantees that he frequently positions himself in high-value areas, reflected by an expected goals (xG) figure of 14.78.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

France U21

LWD
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
27 Sep 2026H Japan U181-3
25 Sep 2026H Ukraine U181-0
23 Sep 2026H Austria U181-1

Italy U21

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
08 Jun 2026H Albania U211-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 52% vs implied 50% · edge +2.4 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Italy U21 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Italy U21 to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
France U21 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
France U21 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Recent form data shows Italy scoring an average of 1 goal per game and conceding none in the last matches, while France concedes slightly more but maintains a strong attack. France's higher BTTS rate (67%) contrasts with Italy's 0%, reflecting Italy's current offensive struggles. This form supports a scenario where Italy may fail to score, reinforcing the BTTS No pick, especially given France's away momentum and Italy's home defensive vulnerabilities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%France U21 Over 2.5
0%Italy U21 Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last meeting between these teams, the average goals scored was 3, but recent trends show a shift towards tighter defenses and fewer goals. France's last five away matches have featured controlled tempo and limited goal concessions. Italy's home matches have seen low goal totals, reinforcing the likelihood of an under 2.5 goals game. These trends support a cautious match with limited scoring opportunities and a focus on defensive organization.

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