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Andorra crestAndorra
v
Gibraltar crestGibraltar

UEFA Nations League | Fri 13 Nov, 19:45

Andorra v Gibraltar Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 11:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This UEFA Nations League clash between Gibraltar and Andorra features two teams struggling for competitive momentum and goal-scoring consistency. Gibraltar arrives on the back of three unbeaten friendlies but carries a poor competitive record with just 0.3 goals per game and a long losing streak. Andorra, ranked higher, also shows limited offensive output, averaging 0.4 goals per competitive match. Both sides have recently demonstrated defensive vulnerabilities but tend to produce tight scorelines, setting the stage for a cautious, low-scoring encounter with high stakes early in Group D1.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 75%, above the 66% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Gibraltar averages 0.3 goals per competitive match with limited shots on target.
  • Andorra averages 0.4 goals per game, creating chances but converting sparingly.
  • Both teams have strong defensive records in recent competitive fixtures, favoring low totals.
  • Recent matches often end with narrow margins, supporting an under 2.5 goals outcome.
Price warning

Under 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 75% while the model sits nearer 66% (-9.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +10.8 pts edge at 2.75.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model supports Under 2.5 Goals based on both teams' low scoring averages in competitive matches—0.3 goals for Gibraltar and 0.4 for Andorra. Defensive tendencies and limited attacking efficiency suggest few goals will be scored. However, the current market price is short, implying a higher chance than the model estimates. This pick is football-led rather than a pure value bet, with reduced stake recommended until price drift or stronger late data emerge. The limited goal threat from both sides underpins the low-scoring expectation.

Gibraltar Goals per Game0.3
Strong positive
Andorra Goals per Game0.4
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance66% model chance vs 75.2% implied (-9.2 pts)
Negative
Model Chance66% model chance vs 75.2% implied (-9.2 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given the cautious attacking output and defensive solidity both teams have shown in competitive matches. Gibraltar's recent friendlies offer limited assurance of increased scoring, while Andorra's chances remain constrained despite some attacking promise. The data and tactical context align well with a low-scoring game, making this selection a prudent choice for bettors.

Main risk

Gibraltar’s friendlies have changed the immediate mood around their results, but Sunday asks whether that improvement can survive a return to competitive football.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · goals and match tempo

“Both teams exhibit restrained attacking patterns and defensive discipline in competitive play, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical expectation despite recent friendly results suggesting otherwise.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Gibraltar averages 0.3 goals per competitive match with limited shots on target.

Andorra averages 0.4 goals per game, creating chances but converting sparingly.

Both teams have strong defensive records in recent competitive fixtures, favoring low totals.

Recent matches often end with narrow margins, supporting an under 2.5 goals outcome.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 0.5, indicating a trend toward low-scoring games between these sides.
  • This trend, combined with recent competitive match data, suggests a slow tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities, reinforcing the expectation of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Andorra0.33
Avg goals scored
Gibraltar0.5
Andorra1
Avg goals conceded
Gibraltar0.5
Andorra33%
BTTS rate
Gibraltar50%
Andorra33%
Over 2.5 goals
Gibraltar0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 75% · edge -9.2 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Both teams have low scoring averages and limited shots on target in competitive matches, with Gibraltar at 0.3 goals and Andorra at 0.4 goals per game. Defensive vulnerabilities exist but have not translated into high scoring, supporting a BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals context. The match is likely to feature few goals and tight defensive battles.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League hubAndorra v Gibraltar predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 36% · edge +10.8 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Gibraltar Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Gibraltar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3
Check odds @ 3
Andorra to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Andorra Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 75.2% implied by the current price (-9.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 33% for Andorra and 0% for Gibraltar, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Risk Factor: Gibraltar's recent high-scoring friendlies and Andorra conceding twice to Malta could push total goals above 2.5.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Andorra

LDL
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
04 Oct 2026A Malta0-1
27 Sep 2026A Gibraltar0-0
24 Sep 2026H Malta1-2

Gibraltar

DD
Last 50W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 0L
01 Oct 2026A Malta1-1
27 Sep 2026H Andorra0-0
Best odds for this sectionGibraltar Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 32% · edge +9.7 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Gibraltar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
5
Check odds @ 5
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3
Check odds @ 3
Andorra to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Andorra Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Recent form data shows Gibraltar with 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game, and Andorra with 0.33 goals scored and 1 conceded, reflecting tight matches with few goals. Both teams have low Over 2.5 Goals rates (Gibraltar 0%, Andorra 33%), supporting the expectation of a low-scoring encounter consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Andorra Over 2.5
0%Gibraltar Over 2.5
0.5H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 0.5, indicating a trend toward low-scoring games between these sides. This trend, combined with recent competitive match data, suggests a slow tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities, reinforcing the expectation of Under 2.5 Goals in this fixture.

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