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Netherlands crestNetherlands
v
Greece crestGreece

UEFA Nations League | Fri 13 Nov, 19:45

Netherlands v Greece Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 10:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

The Netherlands and Greece meet in a crucial UEFA Nations League clash in Amsterdam, both level on points and vying for top spot in Group A2. The Netherlands have shown strong possession control and attacking quality under Xavi Hernandez but have struggled to convert control into wins, drawing three of their last five matches. Greece arrive unbeaten in five away games, boasting a disciplined defensive setup and a potent counterattack led by Ivan Jovanovic. Their recent 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, where Greece led 2-0 before a comeback, highlights the tactical balance and scoring potential on both sides, setting the stage for a tightly contested encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Draw

  • Netherlands have drawn three of their last five matches, showing difficulty in securing wins despite possession control.
  • Greece remain unbeaten in five consecutive away fixtures, demonstrating strong defensive resilience and counterattacking threat.
  • The last meeting ended 2-2 with Greece leading early, indicating both teams can score but matches remain tight.
  • Both teams have similar points and form, making a draw a plausible outcome in this balanced group contest.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 29.6% chance to a draw, significantly higher than the 18.2% implied by current , indicating strong value in this selection. The Netherlands' recent pattern of draws and Greece's unbeaten away run support a stalemate with goals. The tactical battle between Dutch possession and Greek defensive compactness, combined with both teams' scoring ability, makes a scoring draw a coherent and data-backed prediction. No data limitations affect , and the price reflects a positive without warning flags.

Model Chance vs Implied Chance29.6% model chance vs 22.2% implied (+7.4 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Draw Frequency (Netherlands)3 draws in last 5 matches
Positive
Greece Away Unbeaten Run5 consecutive away matches unbeaten
Positive
Tactical BalanceDutch possession vs Greek counterattack
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The draw is a sensible pick given the Netherlands' tendency to draw matches despite possession control and Greece's strong defensive organization on the road. The tactical setup suggests a balanced contest where both teams can score but neither side can establish clear superiority, making a scoring draw a likely result.

Main risk

Attacking injuries have complicated the hosts' preparations, however, potentially restricting their ability to break down a disciplined defensive block.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical balance and scoring potential

“This fixture is a classic tactical chess match: the Netherlands control possession but struggle to finish, while Greece's disciplined defense and counterattack pose a real threat. The scoring draw reflects the balance of attacking potential and defensive resilience on both sides.”

Key Data Signals

Draw evidence

Netherlands have drawn three of their last five matches, showing difficulty in securing wins despite possession control.

Greece remain unbeaten in five consecutive away fixtures, demonstrating strong defensive resilience and counterattacking threat.

The last meeting ended 2-2 with Greece leading early, indicating both teams can score but matches remain tight.

Both teams have similar points and form, making a draw a plausible outcome in this balanced group contest.

What To Watch In The Data

Draw notes

  • Over the last three meetings, the average goals scored is 2.67, with the most recent match finishing 2-2.
  • This trend suggests a moderate scoring tempo with goals from both sides, supporting the likelihood of a scoring draw in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Netherlands1.75
Avg goals scored
Greece1.25
Netherlands1.25
Avg goals conceded
Greece0.75
Netherlands100%
BTTS rate
Greece50%
Netherlands75%
Over 2.5 goals
Greece50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 79%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have demonstrated scoring ability recently, with the last encounter ending 2-2 and the Netherlands boasting a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches. Greece's 50% BTTS rate and counterattacking style support the likelihood of goals from both sides, reinforcing the feasibility of a scoring draw.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDrawBetfred guide price · Model 30% vs implied 22% · edge +7.4 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Greece Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Greece to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Netherlands Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
The 29.6% for Draw sits against roughly 22.2% implied by the current price (+7.4 pts). Greece have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.75 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge. Netherlands carry the stronger scoring threat, but Greece must contribute for BTTS to land.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Netherlands

WDWD
Last 52W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 0L
04 Oct 2026H Serbia2-1
01 Oct 2026A Greece2-2
27 Sep 2026A Serbia2-1
24 Sep 2026H Germany1-1

Greece

DDWW
Last 52W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 0L
04 Oct 2026H Germany0-0
01 Oct 2026H Netherlands2-2
27 Sep 2026A Germany1-0
24 Sep 2026A Serbia2-1
Market aligned with main pickDrawBetfred guide price · Model 30% vs implied 22% · edge +7.4 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Greece Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Greece to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Netherlands Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Netherlands to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Both teams have accumulated 8 points in the Nations League, with the Netherlands scoring 1.75 goals and conceding 1.25 per game, while Greece scores 1.25 and concedes 0.75. The Netherlands' recent draws and Greece's unbeaten away run reflect balanced momentum, supporting a tight contest likely to end in a draw.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Netherlands Over 2.5
50%Greece Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
Over the last three meetings, the average goals scored is 2.67, with the most recent match finishing 2-2. This trend suggests a moderate scoring tempo with goals from both sides, supporting the likelihood of a scoring draw in this fixture.

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