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Ecuador crestEcuador
v
Costa Rica crestCosta Rica

Friendlies | Sat 14 Nov, 00:00

Ecuador v Costa Rica Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ecuador and Costa Rica meet in a friendly where Ecuador's recent form shows a more potent attack and better defensive stability compared to Costa Rica's struggles at the back. Ecuador averages 1.4 goals per game with a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, while Costa Rica concedes over 3 goals per match and has seen all their recent games go over 2.5 goals. This clash promises open play and attacking intent from both sides, with Ecuador's sharper offensive players likely to test Costa Rica's vulnerable defense in a match that could see multiple goals.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Ecuador averages 1.4 goals per game with 60% Over 2.5 rate
  • Costa Rica concedes 3.25 goals per game and has 100% Over 2.5 rate
  • Head-to-head matches average 4 goals per game
  • Ecuador averages 12.8 shots with 4 on target per game, Costa Rica only 3.5 shots
  • Key Ecuador attackers like J. Angulo have high shot volumes and goal threat

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 78% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting both teams' attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities. Ecuador's consistent shot volume and goal scoring combine with Costa Rica's defensive frailties to create a high-scoring environment. The 20% at of 1.73 indicates strong value, supported by recent form and historical match data. No data limitations affect in this pick, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling selection for this friendly encounter.

Model Chance72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormEcuador 60% Over 2.5, Costa Rica 100% Over 2.5
Strong positive
H2H Goals Average4 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Over 2.5 Goals is a strong pick given Ecuador's attacking firepower and Costa Rica's defensive struggles. Ecuador's ability to generate shots on target combined with Costa Rica's leaky defense suggests multiple goals are likely. The recent form data and head-to-head averages reinforce the expectation of an open, goal-rich game in this friendly.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking threat and defensive weakness

“Ecuador's attacking players, especially J. Angulo, create significant shooting opportunities, while Costa Rica's defensive record points to vulnerabilities that should lead to a high-scoring match.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Ecuador averages 1.4 goals per game with 60% Over 2.5 rate

Costa Rica concedes 3.25 goals per game and has 100% Over 2.5 rate

Head-to-head matches average 4 goals per game

Ecuador averages 12.8 shots with 4 on target per game, Costa Rica only 3.5 shots

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored reached 4 per game, highlighting a trend toward open, attacking matches between these teams.
  • This recent trend supports the Over 2.5 Goals pick, suggesting a continuation of high-tempo, goal-rich encounters.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ecuador1.4
Avg goals scored
Costa Rica0.75
Ecuador1.2
Avg goals conceded
Costa Rica3.25
Ecuador60%
BTTS rate
Costa Rica50%
Ecuador60%
Over 2.5 goals
Costa Rica100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Both teams have shown tendencies toward high-scoring games recently. Ecuador scores 1.4 goals per match with a 60% BTTS rate, while Costa Rica concedes heavily and has a 50% BTTS rate. The head-to-head average of 4 goals per game further supports the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and potential BTTS involvement.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Costa Rica Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Costa Rica to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
10
Check odds @ 10
Ecuador to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Ecuador Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
The 72.8% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Ecuador and 100% for Costa Rica, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ecuador

LWWDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 1L
24 Sep 2026A South Korea0-3
07 Jun 2026H Guatemala3-0
31 May 2026H Saudi Arabia2-1
31 Mar 2026A Netherlands1-1
27 Mar 2026A Morocco1-1

Costa Rica

LLLD
Last 50W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 3L
10 Jun 2026A England0-3
02 Jun 2026A Colombia1-3
31 Mar 2026H Iran0-5
27 Mar 2026A Jordan2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
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Costa Rica Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
Costa Rica to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
10
Check odds @ 10
Ecuador to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Ecuador Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Recent form data shows Ecuador with 8 points and a 60% Over 2.5 rate, reflecting consistent attacking output. Costa Rica's defensive record is poor, conceding 3.25 goals per match and maintaining a 100% Over 2.5 rate, indicating matches frequently exceed three goals. This form supports expectations of a high-scoring friendly.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Ecuador Over 2.5
100%Costa Rica Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored reached 4 per game, highlighting a trend toward open, attacking matches between these teams. This recent trend supports the Over 2.5 Goals pick, suggesting a continuation of high-tempo, goal-rich encounters.

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