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Chile crestChile

Friendlies | Sat 14 Nov, 00:00

Colombia v Chile Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 01:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Colombia hosts Chile in an emotionally charged friendly at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero, marking Colombia's first home game since a tragic earthquake. Colombia aims to build momentum towards the 2028 Copa America under Nestor Lorenzo, relying on a strong defensive record and unbeaten recent history against Chile. Chile, led by interim manager Nicolas Cordova, seeks to extend their recovery after a morale-boosting 2-0 win over Mexico but face defensive vulnerabilities and key absences. Both teams look to assert their tactical identities, with Colombia's defensive solidity and Chile's attacking improvements setting the stage for an open contest.

BT4Y best bet

Colombia to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Colombia unbeaten in last five matches against Chile, including a 4-0 win in October 2024
  • Colombia has kept five clean sheets in their last seven matches, showing defensive strength
  • Chile conceded 15 goals in their last eight internationals, with only one clean sheet
  • Chile's recent 2-0 win over Mexico indicates attacking potential despite defensive frailties
  • Colombia missing key attackers but introducing debutants, creating transitional defensive moments

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Colombia to Win & Both Teams to Score at 42.1% chance, significantly higher than the implied market probability of 27.8%, indicating strong value. Colombia's defensive resilience combined with Chile's recent attacking improvements supports both teams scoring, while Colombia's unbeaten record against Chile and home advantage favor a Colombian win. The model acknowledges some risk from Colombia's defensive solidity potentially limiting Chile's scoring but sees the visitors' offensive threat as sufficient to break through. The data quality is solid, with balanced stats for both teams, reinforcing in this combined outcome.

Model Probability vs Market46.1% model chance
Strong positive
Colombia Defensive Record5 clean sheets in last 7 matches
Strong positive
Chile Defensive Vulnerability15 goals conceded in last 8 matches
Strong positive
Recent Head-to-HeadColombia unbeaten last 5 meetings
Positive
Price Sensitivity46.1% model chance
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Colombia's tactical discipline and home advantage position them well to secure victory, while Chile's attacking resurgence under Cordova suggests they will find the net. The combination of Colombia's unbeaten record against Chile and Chile's defensive struggles makes Colombia to Win & Both Teams to Score a compelling selection for this friendly.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and scoring potential

“Colombia's defensive solidity and unbeaten run against Chile create a strong foundation for victory, yet Chile's recent attacking form and tactical adjustments under Cordova provide enough threat to ensure they score, making this a balanced but confident pick.”

Key Data Signals

Colombia to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Colombia unbeaten in last five matches against Chile, including a 4-0 win in October 2024

Colombia has kept five clean sheets in their last seven matches, showing defensive strength

Chile conceded 15 goals in their last eight internationals, with only one clean sheet

Chile's recent 2-0 win over Mexico indicates attacking potential despite defensive frailties

What To Watch In The Data

Colombia to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Recent head-to-head matches average 1.78 goals per game, with Colombia scoring multiple goals in three of the last four World Cup qualifiers against Chile.
  • Chile's defensive frailty and Colombia's attacking consistency suggest a trend towards matches with over 2.5 goals, supported by Chile's 60% over 2.5 rate in recent form, indicating an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Colombia1.6
Avg goals scored
Chile1.4
Colombia0.6
Avg goals conceded
Chile1.6
Colombia40%
BTTS rate
Chile60%
Colombia20%
Over 2.5 goals
Chile60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Colombia's defensive record of five clean sheets in seven matches contrasts with Chile's concession of 15 goals in eight internationals, creating a scenario where Colombia can win but Chile still scores. Chile's recent 2-0 victory over Mexico highlights their attacking potential, supporting the likelihood of both teams scoring in this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Friendlies fixtures and predictionsColombia v Chile predictioncorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickColombia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 71% · edge -5 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Colombia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The model rates Colombia to Win & Both Teams to Score at 46.1% on the latest available numbers. Colombia need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Colombia on 10 and Chile on 6. Colombia vs Chile Preview: Prediction, Team News and Lineups as Los Cafeteros Return Home.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Colombia

WLDWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 3L
07 Oct 2026H Peru2-0
03 Oct 2026H Paraguay0-1
27 Sep 2026A Mexico1-1
08 Jun 2026H Jordan2-0
02 Jun 2026H Costa Rica3-1

Chile

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 3L
07 Oct 2026A Mexico2-0
30 Sep 2026A USA2-4
27 Sep 2026A Canada0-1
09 Jun 2026A Congo DR2-1
06 Jun 2026A Portugal1-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 86% vs implied 91% · edge -4.9 pts
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
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Colombia to WinBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Colombia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Colombia's recent form shows 10 points from their last five matches with a solid defensive record conceding only 0.6 goals per game, while Chile has six points and concedes 1.6 goals per game, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities. Colombia's lower over 2.5 goals rate (20%) compared to Chile's (60%) suggests Colombia often controls tempo, but Chile's attacking intent increases the chance of goals from both sides.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Colombia Over 2.5
60%Chile Over 2.5
1.78H2H avg goals
Recent head-to-head matches average 1.78 goals per game, with Colombia scoring multiple goals in three of the last four World Cup qualifiers against Chile. Chile's defensive frailty and Colombia's attacking consistency suggest a trend towards matches with over 2.5 goals, supported by Chile's 60% over 2.5 rate in recent form, indicating an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides.

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