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Newcastle crestNewcastle
v
Bournemouth crestBournemouth

Premier League | Sat 05 Sep, 12:30

Newcastle v Bournemouth Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 13:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Newcastle face Bournemouth in Premier League on Sat 05 Sep, 12:30. Anthony Elanga has scored in both of his Premier League appearances, with three of his four shots hitting the target, making him Newcastle’s sharpest early individual indicator.

BT4Y best bet

Newcastle to win and both teams to score

  • At 13/5, Newcastle to win and both teams to score implies roughly 28%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 38%.
  • Bournemouth's scoring record in recent meetings and Newcastle's defensive absences suggest Bournemouth will find the net again.
  • Newcastle need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Newcastle on 4 and Bournemouth on 1.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 50% for Newcastle and 100% for Bournemouth.
  • Newcastle to win and both teams to score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 2 for Newcastle and 1 for Bournemouth are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 38% for Newcastle to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 28% implied by the current price. Newcastle need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Newcastle on 4 and Bournemouth on 1. Bournemouth's scoring record in recent meetings and Newcastle's defensive absences suggest Bournemouth will find the net again.

Model chance vs price38% model chance against roughly 28% implied
Positive
Newcastle need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Bournemouth's scoring record in recent meetings and Newcastle's defensive.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Newcastle Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because bournemouth's scoring record in recent meetings and Newcastle's defensive absences suggest Bournemouth will find the net again. Newcastle need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Newcastle on 4 and Bournemouth on 1. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Newcastle to win and both teams to score evidence

Bournemouth's scoring record in recent meetings and Newcastle's defensive absences suggest Bournemouth will find the net again.

Newcastle need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Newcastle on 4 and Bournemouth on 1.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 50% for Newcastle and 100% for Bournemouth.

Newcastle Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 2 for Newcastle and 1 for Bournemouth are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Newcastle to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Newcastle2
Avg goals scored
Bournemouth1
Newcastle1
Avg goals conceded
Bournemouth1.5
Newcastle50%
BTTS rate
Bournemouth100%
Newcastle50%
Over 2.5 goals
Bournemouth50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Newcastle

WD
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
29 Aug 2026A Tottenham2-0
23 Aug 2026H Liverpool2-2

Bournemouth

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
29 Aug 2026H Everton1-1
23 Aug 2026A Manchester City1-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 74% · edge +0 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Newcastle to WinBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Newcastle Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Newcastle852210
17Bournemouth35032-2
Newcastle sit in position 9, while Bournemouth sit in position 17, so table pressure belongs in the Newcastle to win and both teams to score assessment.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNewcastle to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 49% vs implied 47% · edge +2.7 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Newcastle Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Newcastle to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Newcastle4.5
Avg corners for
Bournemouth6.5
Newcastle12
Avg total corners
Bournemouth14
Newcastle3.5
Avg yellow cards
Bournemouth2.5
Newcastle12
Avg shots
Bournemouth11
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Newcastle wins
6Draws
3Bournemouth wins
18 Apr 2026Newcastle v Bournemouth1-2
10 Jan 2026Newcastle v Bournemouth2-2
21 Sep 2025Bournemouth v Newcastle0-0
18 Jan 2025Newcastle v Bournemouth1-4
25 Aug 2024Bournemouth v Newcastle1-1
17 Feb 2024Newcastle v Bournemouth2-2
Market aligned with main pickNewcastle to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 49% vs implied 47% · edge +2.7 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The head-to-head sample gives context for Newcastle to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Premier League

Newcastle5
Played
Bournemouth5
Newcastle1.8
Avg goals for
Bournemouth1.2
Newcastle1.8
Avg goals against
Bournemouth1.6
Newcastle1
Clean sheets
Bournemouth0
Market aligned with main pickNewcastle to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 49% vs implied 47% · edge +2.7 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Newcastle Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Season data supports Newcastle to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Newcastle Over 2.5
50%Bournemouth Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Newcastle sit at 50% and Bournemouth sit at 50% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.