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Premier League | Sat 05 Sep, 12:30

Newcastle v Bournemouth Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Newcastle enter this Premier League clash with strong attacking form, having scored seven goals in their opening three matches, including a notable 2-0 win at Tottenham. Despite this offensive efficiency, defensive vulnerabilities remain, with four goals conceded and key absences in defense. Bournemouth, while struggling for points with just one from two games, have consistently found the net in recent fixtures and in five of their last six meetings with Newcastle. This matchup promises a competitive encounter where Newcastle's attacking edge meets Bournemouth's persistent scoring threat, setting the stage for a high-tempo game with goals at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Newcastle to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Newcastle have scored seven goals in three matches, showing strong attacking form.
  • Bournemouth have scored in both league games this season and five of last six meetings with Newcastle.
  • Newcastle's defense has conceded four goals in three games, indicating vulnerability.
  • Anthony Elanga has scored in both Premier League appearances, highlighting individual threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Newcastle to Win & Both Teams to Score as a strong value bet at 3.6 , reflecting a 47.4% chance versus a 27.8% implied probability. Newcastle's efficient attack, led by Anthony Elanga, combines with Bournemouth's consistent scoring record, especially in recent head-to-heads, to support both teams finding the net. Defensive absences for Newcastle increase the likelihood of Bournemouth scoring, while Newcastle's offensive productivity suggests a home win. No data limitations affect , making this a well-supported selection.

Model Chance47.4%
Strong positive
Implied Chance27.8%
Strong positive
Value Edge19.6%
Strong positive
Newcastle Attack7 goals in 3 matches
Strong positive
Bournemouth ScoringScored in 5 of last 6 vs Newcastle
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Newcastle's sharp attacking form combined with Bournemouth's consistent scoring in this fixture makes the Newcastle to Win & Both Teams to Score bet tactically and statistically sound. Newcastle's offensive efficiency and Bournemouth's ability to find the net create a compelling case for this selection.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and scoring

“Newcastle's clinical finishing and Bournemouth's persistent scoring record in recent meetings create a dynamic contest where both teams are likely to score, but Newcastle's edge should secure the win.”

Key Data Signals

Newcastle to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Newcastle have scored seven goals in three matches, showing strong attacking form.

Bournemouth have scored in both league games this season and five of last six meetings with Newcastle.

Newcastle's defense has conceded four goals in three games, indicating vulnerability.

Anthony Elanga has scored in both Premier League appearances, highlighting individual threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Newcastle to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • The last ten meetings between Newcastle and Bournemouth have averaged 2.5 goals per game, with three of the last four producing over 2.5 goals.
  • This trend, combined with both teams' recent scoring records, suggests a lively match with multiple goal-scoring opportunities and a tempo conducive to Over 2.5 Goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Newcastle2
Avg goals scored
Bournemouth1
Newcastle1
Avg goals conceded
Bournemouth1.5
Newcastle50%
BTTS rate
Bournemouth100%
Newcastle50%
Over 2.5 goals
Bournemouth50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have scored in all of Bournemouth's recent league matches and in five of the last six meetings between these sides. Newcastle's seven goals in three games underline their offensive threat, while their defensive gaps suggest Bournemouth can capitalize, supporting a BTTS scenario.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Newcastle

WD
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
29 Aug 2026A Tottenham2-0
23 Aug 2026H Liverpool2-2

Bournemouth

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
29 Aug 2026H Everton1-1
23 Aug 2026A Manchester City1-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 77% · edge +9.1 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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Newcastle Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Newcastle to WinBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Newcastle's recent form shows strong attacking output with two wins and a draw, scoring twice in their last match while conceding once, reflecting both offensive strength and defensive vulnerability. Bournemouth have struggled for results, earning just one point from two games but maintaining a 100% BTTS rate, indicating their ability to score even when results are poor.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Newcastle421102
14Bournemouth12011-1
Newcastle's 6th place standing with four points from two games reflects their positive start and attacking momentum. Bournemouth's 14th place and single point highlight their early struggles but do not diminish their scoring threat, especially given their recent head-to-head competitiveness against Newcastle.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNewcastle Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Newcastle to WinBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 3.6 for Newcastle to Win & Both Teams to Score offer clear value against the model's 47.4% probability. This pricing reflects market recognition of Newcastle's attacking efficiency and Bournemouth's scoring consistency, making the selection an attractive proposition without price sensitivity concerns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Newcastle4.5
Avg corners for
Bournemouth6.5
Newcastle12
Avg total corners
Bournemouth14
Newcastle3.5
Avg yellow cards
Bournemouth2.5
Newcastle12
Avg shots
Bournemouth11
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 55% · edge +13.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Bournemouth average more corners (6.5) than Newcastle (4.5), indicating their attacking pressure and wide play. Newcastle's higher shot volume (12 per game) and solid shots on target (3) reflect their offensive intent. Card averages suggest a moderately physical contest, with Newcastle receiving more yellows, hinting at defensive challenges.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Newcastle wins
6Draws
3Bournemouth wins
18 Apr 2026Newcastle v Bournemouth1-2
10 Jan 2026Newcastle v Bournemouth2-2
21 Sep 2025Bournemouth v Newcastle0-0
18 Jan 2025Newcastle v Bournemouth1-4
25 Aug 2024Bournemouth v Newcastle1-1
17 Feb 2024Newcastle v Bournemouth2-2
Market aligned with main pickNewcastle to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Recent head-to-head matches show Bournemouth have scored in five of the last six encounters, including a 2-1 win at St James' Park. Newcastle have only one win in the last six meetings, indicating Bournemouth's ability to challenge strongly despite current form differences. This history supports the BTTS aspect and cautions against expecting a comfortable Newcastle clean sheet.
Season team stats

Premier League

Newcastle2
Played
Bournemouth2
Newcastle2
Avg goals for
Bournemouth1
Newcastle1
Avg goals against
Bournemouth1.5
Newcastle1
Clean sheets
Bournemouth0
Market aligned with main pickNewcastle Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 62% · edge +12 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Newcastle to WinBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Newcastle's season stats reveal a potent attack with 2.33 goals per game but a leaky defense conceding one goal per match, supporting the likelihood of both teams scoring. Bournemouth's lower scoring average (1.0) contrasts with their defensive frailties, conceding 1.5 goals per game, reinforcing the expectation of goals at both ends.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Newcastle Over 2.5
50%Bournemouth Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The last ten meetings between Newcastle and Bournemouth have averaged 2.5 goals per game, with three of the last four producing over 2.5 goals. This trend, combined with both teams' recent scoring records, suggests a lively match with multiple goal-scoring opportunities and a tempo conducive to Over 2.5 Goals.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Newcastle v Bournemouth prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Betting context

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