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Portland Timbers crestPortland Timbers
v
Charlotte crestCharlotte

Major League Soccer | Sun 25 Oct, 02:30

Portland Timbers v Charlotte Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Charlotte arrives at this Major League Soccer fixture with strong momentum, having secured 7 points recently compared to Portland Timbers' 2 points. Charlotte's attack has been more potent, averaging 1.6 goals per game versus Portland's 0.8, while both teams concede at similar rates. Charlotte's higher league standing and recent form suggest tactical and sharper execution, setting up a contest where Charlotte looks poised to capitalize on their offensive edge and maintain defensive discipline away from home.

BT4Y best bet

Charlotte to Win

  • Charlotte has earned 7 points recently, outpacing Portland's 2 points.
  • Charlotte averages 1.6 goals per game, double Portland's 0.8 scoring rate.
  • Both teams concede 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Charlotte ranks 5th in the league, significantly above Portland's 11th position.
  • Charlotte's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, suggesting attacking games.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Charlotte to win with a 68% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, higher league position, and more effective attack. Charlotte's strong goal-scoring record and ability to create quality chances underpin this . The price offers positive value with a 37.2% edge, indicating the market underestimates Charlotte's chances. The data quality is solid for both sides, supporting a reliable prediction based on current performance and tactical strengths.

Model Chance45.8% model chance vs 30.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormCharlotte 7 points vs Portland 2
Strong positive
Goal ScoringCharlotte 1.6 vs Portland 0.8 goals per game
Strong positive
League PositionCharlotte 5th vs Portland 11th
Positive
Price Value Edge45.8% model chance vs 30.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Charlotte's recent form and superior attacking output make them the logical pick to win this match. Their higher league standing and consistent goal threat provide a strong foundation, while Portland's struggles to score and lower point accumulation suggest Charlotte can secure the victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Charlotte to Win

“Charlotte's offensive efficiency and recent momentum position them well to overcome Portland's resistance, especially given their higher league ranking and sharper attacking players.”

Key Data Signals

Charlotte to Win evidence

Charlotte has earned 7 points recently, outpacing Portland's 2 points.

Charlotte averages 1.6 goals per game, double Portland's 0.8 scoring rate.

Both teams concede 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Charlotte ranks 5th in the league, significantly above Portland's 11th position.

What To Watch In The Data

Charlotte to Win notes

  • Over the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating moderately scoring games.
  • Charlotte's high over 2.5 goals rate over recent matches suggests this fixture could see more goals than the historical average, driven by their attacking tempo and Portland's defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Portland Timbers0.8
Avg goals scored
Charlotte1.6
Portland Timbers1.8
Avg goals conceded
Charlotte1.8
Portland Timbers40%
BTTS rate
Charlotte80%
Portland Timbers40%
Over 2.5 goals
Charlotte80%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +14.8 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Charlotte's games feature a high over 2.5 goals rate of 80%, indicating open, attacking matches. Both teams concede 1.8 goals per game, supporting the likelihood of goals from both sides. Portland's lower scoring rate may temper expectations, but Charlotte's offensive potency suggests goals are probable.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCharlotte to WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
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Charlotte Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
The 45.8% for Charlotte to Win sits against roughly 30.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Charlotte have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 2 for Portland Timbers.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Portland Timbers

DLDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
18 Oct 2026H Colorado Rapids0-0
15 Oct 2026A Los Angeles Galaxy0-2
11 Oct 2026A Sporting Kansas City3-3
27 Sep 2026A San Jose Earthquakes1-3
20 Sep 2026H Atlanta United FC0-1

Charlotte

DLWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
17 Oct 2026A Philadelphia Union2-2
15 Oct 2026A Columbus Crew1-3
11 Oct 2026H FC Dallas3-2
27 Sep 2026H Chicago Fire0-1
20 Sep 2026A DC United2-1
Market aligned with main pickCharlotte to WinBet365 guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Charlotte Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Charlotte's recent accumulation of 7 points contrasts sharply with Portland's 2 points, highlighting a clear momentum advantage. Charlotte's ability to score more goals per game and maintain defensive solidity has translated into better results, reinforcing in their winning chances in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Portland Timbers Over 2.5
80%Charlotte Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating moderately scoring games. Charlotte's high over 2.5 goals rate over recent matches suggests this fixture could see more goals than the historical average, driven by their attacking tempo and Portland's defensive vulnerabilities.

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