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Once Caldas crestOnce Caldas
v
Deportivo Pereira crestDeportivo Pereira

Primera A | Sun 25 Oct, 02:15

Once Caldas v Deportivo Pereira Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Once Caldas and Deportivo Pereira meet in a Primera A clash where both teams have shown relatively low scoring outputs this season. Once Caldas averages 1.2 goals per game while conceding 1, and Deportivo Pereira scores 0.8 but concedes 1.4 on average. Recent form data shows Once Caldas with 8 points and Deportivo Pereira with 5 from their last matches, indicating a cautious approach. The tactical setup and defensive tendencies suggest a match likely to stay tight and under three goals, with both sides prioritizing defensive solidity over attacking risk.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Once Caldas averages just 1.2 goals per game, indicating limited attacking output.
  • Deportivo Pereira concedes 1.4 goals per game, showing defensive vulnerabilities but low scoring rate.
  • Both teams have low Over 2.5 Goals rates: 20% for Once Caldas and 40% for Deportivo Pereira.
  • Recent form points totals (8 and 5) suggest cautious, low-scoring matches.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2, supporting a low-scoring expectation.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 66% chance for Under 2.5 Goals, reflecting the low scoring averages and defensive focus of both teams. Once Caldas and Deportivo Pereira have combined for modest shot volumes and limited goal threats, reinforcing the likelihood of a tight, low-scoring encounter. The price at 2.15 offers positive value given the implied chance of 46.5%. This pick aligns well with the teams' recent form and season-long defensive records, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection for this fixture.

Model Chance61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals DataLow scoring rates for both teams
Positive
Shot VolumeModerate to low shots on target
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical choice given the defensive tendencies and low scoring rates of both Once Caldas and Deportivo Pereira. The match context suggests a cautious game with limited clear-cut chances, supported by recent form and season-long defensive statistics. This bet reflects a tactical battle where goals are likely to be scarce.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and scoring profile

“This fixture features two teams with modest attacking output and a tendency to keep matches tight. The Under 2.5 Goals market captures the cautious tactical approach and defensive solidity expected, making it a prudent selection.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Once Caldas averages just 1.2 goals per game, indicating limited attacking output.

Deportivo Pereira concedes 1.4 goals per game, showing defensive vulnerabilities but low scoring rate.

Recent form points totals (8 and 5) suggest cautious, low-scoring matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten matches between these teams, the average goals scored is 2, indicating a tendency towards low-scoring games.
  • This trend suggests a slower tempo and defensive solidity, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals market for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Once Caldas1.2
Avg goals scored
Deportivo Pereira0.8
Once Caldas1
Avg goals conceded
Deportivo Pereira1.4
Once Caldas60%
BTTS rate
Deportivo Pereira40%
Once Caldas20%
Over 2.5 goals
Deportivo Pereira40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have low scoring averages and moderate BTTS rates, with Once Caldas at 60% and Deportivo Pereira at 40%. The combined average goals in their last ten meetings is 2, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring match with a moderate chance of both teams scoring.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.3 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Deportivo Pereira Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Deportivo Pereira to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Once Caldas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.16
Check odds @ 1.16
Once Caldas to WinBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 61.5% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 46.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Once Caldas and 40% for Deportivo Pereira, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Once Caldas

DWWDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
21 Oct 2026A Millonarios1-1
18 Oct 2026A Independiente Medellin2-0
10 Oct 2026H Llaneros1-0
04 Oct 2026A Internacional de Bogota1-1
26 Sep 2026H Bucaramanga1-3

Deportivo Pereira

WDDLL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 4L
20 Oct 2026H Chico2-0
14 Oct 2026A Junior1-1
10 Oct 2026H Deportivo Cali0-0
04 Oct 2026A Cucuta0-4
29 Sep 2026H Santa Fe1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Deportivo Pereira Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 85%
1.06
Check odds @ 1.06
Deportivo Pereira to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Once Caldas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.16
Check odds @ 1.16
Once Caldas to WinBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Recent form data shows Once Caldas earning 8 points with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1 conceded, while Deportivo Pereira has 5 points with 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. These figures indicate a trend towards low-scoring matches and cautious play, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Once Caldas Over 2.5
40%Deportivo Pereira Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches between these teams, the average goals scored is 2, indicating a tendency towards low-scoring games. This trend suggests a slower tempo and defensive solidity, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals market for this fixture.

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