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Sporting Kansas City crestSporting Kansas City
v
Austin crestAustin

Major League Soccer | Sun 25 Oct, 01:30

Sporting Kansas City v Austin Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 18:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sporting Kansas City and Austin meet in a Major League Soccer clash where both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring games. Sporting Kansas City, despite sitting lower in the standings, have been involved in matches with an average of 80% over 2.5 goals rate, mirroring Austin's similar attacking output. Both sides concede an average of 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities that could lead to an open, goal-rich encounter. Recent form data highlights Sporting Kansas City's slight edge in points but both teams' offensive capabilities suggest an entertaining fixture with multiple goal opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season.
  • Sporting Kansas City concedes 2.4 goals per game, matching Austin's defensive record.
  • Average shots per game are high: 12.4 for Sporting Kansas City and 11 for Austin, indicating attacking intent.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 3.3 goals, supporting a high-scoring trend.
  • Key attackers like André Luiz and C. Ramirez contribute significantly to goal threats and shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals with a 58% chance, reflecting both teams' offensive strengths and defensive frailties. Sporting Kansas City and Austin consistently produce high shot volumes and have a strong history of matches with multiple goals, as seen in their 80% over 2.5 goals rate. The average goals in their head-to-head meetings further reinforce the likelihood of a goal-laden game. This combination of attacking pressure and defensive openness creates a compelling case for expecting at least four goals in this fixture.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge58% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+10.4 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate80% both teams
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.3 goals
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game given both teams' defensive records and offensive capabilities. Sporting Kansas City's slightly better recent form combined with Austin's consistent goal threat suggests a match that will likely see multiple goals. The statistical trends and player profiles support a high-scoring encounter.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking and defensive balance

“This fixture features two teams with attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities, setting the stage for a lively match with plenty of goal-scoring chances.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season.

Sporting Kansas City concedes 2.4 goals per game, matching Austin's defensive record.

Average shots per game are high: 12.4 for Sporting Kansas City and 11 for Austin, indicating attacking intent.

Head-to-head meetings average 3.3 goals, supporting a high-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.3, indicating a history of open, attacking games.
  • This trend, combined with both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates, suggests a fast-paced match with multiple goal chances and a high tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sporting Kansas City1.4
Avg goals scored
Austin1.2
Sporting Kansas City2.4
Avg goals conceded
Austin2.4
Sporting Kansas City60%
BTTS rate
Austin80%
Sporting Kansas City80%
Over 2.5 goals
Austin80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Both Sporting Kansas City and Austin have high over 2.5 goals rates at 80%, and their matches often feature both teams scoring. Their defensive records show susceptibility, with each conceding 2.4 goals per game, supporting expectations for multiple goals and BTTS scenarios.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 68% · edge +8.4 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Sporting Kansas City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Sporting Kansas City to WinBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
4
Check odds @ 4
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+10.4 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Sporting Kansas City and 80% for Austin, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sporting Kansas City

LLDLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
18 Oct 2026H Real Salt Lake1-3
15 Oct 2026A Nashville SC0-4
11 Oct 2026H Portland Timbers3-3
02 Oct 2026A Seattle Sounders1-2
27 Sep 2026A Houston Dynamo2-0

Austin

LLLDD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
18 Oct 2026H Vancouver Whitecaps1-2
15 Oct 2026A Los Angeles FC1-3
11 Oct 2026H Nashville SC1-4
27 Sep 2026H San Diego3-3
20 Sep 2026A FC Dallas0-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 80% vs implied 71% · edge +8.4 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Sporting Kansas City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2
Check odds @ 2
Sporting Kansas City to WinBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
4
Check odds @ 4
Austin to WinBet365 guide price · model 31%
3
Check odds @ 3
Austin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent form shows Sporting Kansas City earning 4 points with 1.4 goals per game, while Austin has 2 points and 1.2 goals per game. Both teams maintain an 80% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring game based on current momentum.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Sporting Kansas City Over 2.5
80%Austin Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3.3, indicating a history of open, attacking games. This trend, combined with both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates, suggests a fast-paced match with multiple goal chances and a high tempo.

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