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FC Dallas crestFC Dallas
v
San Jose Earthquakes crestSan Jose Earthquakes

Major League Soccer | Sun 25 Oct, 01:30

FC Dallas v San Jose Earthquakes Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Major League Soccer clash features FC Dallas hosting San Jose Earthquakes in a contest with playoff implications as both teams sit near the top of the Western Conference standings. FC Dallas holds third place with 51 points, just ahead of San Jose in fourth with 48 points, making this a tight battle for positioning. Recent form shows FC Dallas with slightly better points accumulation, but San Jose's attacking threat and resilience away from home add intrigue. Both teams have shown balanced defensive records, setting up a tactical encounter where cautious approaches and counterattacks may prevail.

BT4Y best bet

San Jose Earthquakes or Draw

  • San Jose Earthquakes have a 68.1% to avoid defeat, well above the implied chance of 47.6%.
  • Both teams average similar shots per game, but San Jose creates more shots on target, indicating sharper finishing.
  • San Jose’s BTTS rate is 100%, highlighting their consistent goal threat and defensive vulnerability.
  • FC Dallas and San Jose have a high-scoring head-to-head average of 3.6 goals per match.
  • San Jose ranks closely behind FC Dallas in the standings, intensifying the competitive stakes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors San Jose Earthquakes or Draw with a 68.1% chance, reflecting their solid away form and attacking efficiency. San Jose’s perfect BTTS rate and higher shots on target per game demonstrate offensive potency that can challenge FC Dallas’s defense. The pricing at 2.1 offers positive value given the implied chance is only 47.6%. This bet captures the tactical balance where San Jose’s resilience and goal threat make them likely to avoid defeat. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Model Probability38.8% model chance vs 24.4% implied (+14.4 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Odds Chance38.8% model chance vs 24.4% implied (+14.4 pts)
Positive
BTTS RateSan Jose 100% BTTS rate
Strong positive
Shots on TargetSan Jose 4.8 SOT per game vs FC Dallas 4.4
Positive
Standings ProximityClose points gap increases match competitiveness
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

San Jose Earthquakes or Draw is a tactically sound pick given San Jose’s consistent attacking threat and ability to avoid defeat away from home. The close standings and recent form suggest a tight contest where San Jose’s resilience and offensive edge can secure at least a point. This bet balances the competitive stakes with San Jose’s demonstrated capacity to challenge FC Dallas effectively.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and attacking consistency

“San Jose’s attacking consistency and ability to create quality chances away from home make the double chance a compelling option in this tightly contested MLS fixture.”

Key Data Signals

San Jose Earthquakes or Draw evidence

San Jose Earthquakes have a 68.1% to avoid defeat, well above the implied chance of 47.6%.

Both teams average similar shots per game, but San Jose creates more shots on target, indicating sharper finishing.

San Jose’s BTTS rate is 100%, highlighting their consistent goal threat and defensive vulnerability.

FC Dallas and San Jose have a high-scoring head-to-head average of 3.6 goals per match.

What To Watch In The Data

San Jose Earthquakes or Draw notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.6, indicating a trend towards higher-scoring games between these sides.
  • This trend suggests a match tempo that favors open play and goal opportunities, supporting expectations for multiple goals and reinforcing the attacking strengths of both teams in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Dallas1.2
Avg goals scored
San Jose Earthquakes1.6
FC Dallas1
Avg goals conceded
San Jose Earthquakes1.2
FC Dallas40%
BTTS rate
San Jose Earthquakes100%
FC Dallas40%
Over 2.5 goals
San Jose Earthquakes40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have shown tendencies towards open play with FC Dallas and San Jose each having a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, but San Jose’s 100% BTTS rate indicates they consistently both score and concede. The high average of 3.6 goals in their last 10 meetings supports expectations of goals from both sides, reinforcing the likelihood of a competitive, goal-involved match.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Dallas

DWLWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
18 Oct 2026A Houston Dynamo2-2
15 Oct 2026H Seattle Sounders1-0
11 Oct 2026A Charlotte2-3
27 Sep 2026H Los Angeles FC1-0
20 Sep 2026H Austin0-0

San Jose Earthquakes

DDDWD
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 6D 1L
18 Oct 2026H Nashville SC1-1
15 Oct 2026A Real Salt Lake1-1
11 Oct 2026A Colorado Rapids1-1
27 Sep 2026H Portland Timbers3-1
20 Sep 2026H Los Angeles FC2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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San Jose Earthquakes to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
FC Dallas Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
San Jose Earthquakes Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
FC Dallas to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Recent form data shows FC Dallas accumulating 8 points and San Jose 7 points over their last matches, indicating both teams are in competitive shape. San Jose’s slightly higher goals for per game (1.6 vs 1.2) and their perfect BTTS rate suggest they are more offensively consistent, while FC Dallas maintains a tighter defense conceding fewer goals on average. This balance points to a closely fought match where San Jose’s attacking momentum could be decisive.

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Useful next reads

Major League Soccer fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
San Jose Earthquakes to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
FC Dallas Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
San Jose Earthquakes Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 38.8% for San Jose Earthquakes or Draw sits against roughly 24.4% implied by the current price (+14.4 pts).
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%FC Dallas Over 2.5
40%San Jose Earthquakes Over 2.5
3.6H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.6, indicating a trend towards higher-scoring games between these sides. This trend suggests a match tempo that favors open play and goal opportunities, supporting expectations for multiple goals and reinforcing the attacking strengths of both teams in this fixture.

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