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Hungary crestHungary
v
Georgia crestGeorgia

UEFA Nations League | Fri 02 Oct, 19:45

Hungary v Georgia Stats

Data last updated: Thu 01 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hungary and Georgia meet in a UEFA Nations League fixture where both teams have shown strong defensive discipline in recent matches, each conceding only half a goal per game on average. With both sides earning just a point from their previous outings and no goals scored, the tactical battle is likely to be cautious. Hungary's home advantage may encourage them to control possession, while Georgia will look to contain and exploit counter-attacks. The match stakes are moderate, with both teams aiming to avoid defeat and build momentum in the group.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both Hungary and Georgia have kept clean sheets in recent matches, indicating tight defenses.
  • Neither team has scored in their last games, suggesting a low-scoring encounter.
  • Hungary averages only 3 corners per game, while Georgia averages 6.5, reflecting moderate attacking pressure.
  • Georgia's average shots on target (4.5) exceed Hungary's (2.5), but both teams have low goal conversion rates.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting the defensive solidity and recent goalless matches for both Hungary and Georgia. Both teams have zero BTTS rates and low goal averages, supporting a low-scoring outcome. The at 1.7 offer positive value with a 7.2% edge. While neither side has prolific attackers, the cautious tactical approach and balanced defensive records suggest limited goal-scoring opportunities. This pick is a standard stake recommendation given the consistent low-scoring trends and balanced match context.

Recent Defensive FormBoth teams concede 0.5 goals per game
Strong positive
Goal Scoring TrendsNo goals scored in last matches by either side
Strong positive
BTTS Rate0% for both teams recently
Strong positive
Shots on TargetGeorgia averages 4.5, Hungary 2.5 per game
Neutral
Market Value Edge66% model chance vs 58.8% implied (+7.2 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The Under 2.5 Goals pick aligns with the tactical caution and defensive discipline shown by Hungary and Georgia recently. Both teams have struggled to score but defended well, making a low-scoring match the most probable outcome. This bet reflects the balance of form and the likelihood of a tight contest with limited clear-cut chances.

Main risk

Both sides have solid defenses, making a single goal each plausible but multiple goals unlikely.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and defensive discipline

“This fixture promises a tactical chess match with both Hungary and Georgia prioritizing defensive organization over attacking risk, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible and data-backed selection.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both Hungary and Georgia have kept clean sheets in recent matches, indicating tight defenses.

Neither team has scored in their last games, suggesting a low-scoring encounter.

Hungary averages only 3 corners per game, while Georgia averages 6.5, reflecting moderate attacking pressure.

Georgia's average shots on target (4.5) exceed Hungary's (2.5), but both teams have low goal conversion rates.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, both Hungary and Georgia have recorded zero games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a strong trend toward low-scoring affairs.
  • The average goals per game remain below one, reflecting a slow tempo and defensive focus.
  • This trend panel suggests that the fixture is unlikely to produce many goals, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals selection as a reflection of recent match dynamics.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hungary0
Avg goals scored
Georgia0
Hungary0.5
Avg goals conceded
Georgia0.5
Hungary0%
BTTS rate
Georgia0%
Hungary0%
Over 2.5 goals
Georgia0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 59% · edge +7.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both Hungary and Georgia have recorded zero goals in their recent matches, with a 0% BTTS rate. This strongly suggests a controlled goal environment where defenses dominate. The lack of goal-scoring form and clean sheets point to a low-scoring game, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals selection and the expectation of limited attacking breakthroughs.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionGeorgia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 42% vs implied 43% · edge -0.6 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
Georgia to WinBetUK guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Hungary to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Hungary Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 58.8% implied by the current price (+7.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Hungary and 0% for Georgia, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Demonstrated scoring capability in Budapest with recent 3-1 and 2-1 victories over Kazakhstan and Finland.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hungary

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
28 Sep 2026A Northern Ireland0-0
25 Sep 2026H Ukraine0-1

Georgia

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
28 Sep 2026H Ukraine0-0
25 Sep 2026H Northern Ireland0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 58% · edge -0.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Georgia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Georgia to WinBetUK guide price · model 29%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Hungary to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Hungary Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Recent form data shows both Hungary and Georgia have earned only one point each from their last matches, with no goals scored and no BTTS occurrences. This pattern reflects cautious play and defensive solidity, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring game. The absence of goals in recent fixtures supports the Under 2.5 Goals bet as both teams appear to prioritize defensive organization over attacking risk.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Hungary Over 2.5
0%Georgia Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both Hungary and Georgia have recorded zero games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a strong trend toward low-scoring affairs. The average goals per game remain below one, reflecting a slow tempo and defensive focus. This trend panel suggests that the fixture is unlikely to produce many goals, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals selection as a reflection of recent match dynamics.

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