Football Stats Hub

Greece crestGreece
v
Netherlands crestNetherlands

UEFA Nations League | Thu 01 Oct, 19:45

Greece v Netherlands Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 00:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Greece face Netherlands in UEFA Nations League on Thu 01 Oct, 19:45. Greece's recent home losses and lower goal return suggest vulnerability, while the handicap offers partial protection against a draw, balancing risk with the Dutch offensive strength and fixture history. Greece look stronger on recent form, while Netherlands remain vulnerable after weaker results.

BT4Y best bet

Netherlands Asian Handicap -0

  • At 3.4, Netherlands Asian Handicap -0 implies roughly 29%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 35%.
  • The Netherlands' strong attack and Greece's ability to score despite defensive pressure support this exact score prediction.
  • Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Netherlands.
  • Greece have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Netherlands Asian Handicap -0 angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Greece sit 2 in the table, while Netherlands sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 35% for Netherlands Asian Handicap -0 sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price. Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Netherlands. The Netherlands' strong attack and Greece's ability to score despite defensive pressure support this exact score prediction.

Model chance vs price35% model chance against roughly 29% implied
Neutral
Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Greece have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
The Netherlands' strong attack and Greece's ability to score.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Greece Win is the preferred angle because the Netherlands' strong attack and Greece's ability to score despite defensive pressure support this exact score prediction. Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Netherlands. However, sustaining that reactive approach is difficult against a Dutch side averaging nearly three goals a game.

Main risk

However, sustaining that reactive approach is difficult against a Dutch side averaging nearly three goals a game.

Key Data Signals

Netherlands Asian Handicap -0 evidence

The Netherlands' strong attack and Greece's ability to score despite defensive pressure support this exact score prediction.

Greece have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Netherlands.

Greece have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Greece Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Greece sit 2 in the table, while Netherlands sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Netherlands Asian Handicap -0 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Greece1.5
    Avg goals scored
    Netherlands1.5
    Greece0.5
    Avg goals conceded
    Netherlands1
    Greece50%
    BTTS rate
    Netherlands100%
    Greece50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Netherlands50%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more UEFA Nations League analysisGreece v Netherlands predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGreece to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 29% · edge +5.8 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 58%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Greece Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Greece to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Greece

    WW
    Last 52W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 0L
    27 Sep 2026A Germany1-0
    24 Sep 2026A Serbia2-1

    Netherlands

    WD
    Last 51W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 0L
    27 Sep 2026A Serbia2-1
    24 Sep 2026H Germany1-1
    Market aligned with main pickGreece to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 29% · edge +5.8 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Greece Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Greece Over 2.5
    50%Netherlands Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Greece sit at 50% and Netherlands sit at 50% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Loading deeper match data…