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Germany crestGermany
v
Serbia crestSerbia

UEFA Nations League | Thu 01 Oct, 19:45

Germany v Serbia Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 02:17 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Germany face Serbia in UEFA Nations League on Thu 01 Oct, 19:45. Germany vs Serbia: Klopp Seeks First Win as Both Sides Face Early Nations League Pressure. A 2-1 Germany win fits their strong home form and Serbia's defensive issues.

BT4Y best bet

BTTS Yes

  • At 20/23, BTTS Yes implies roughly 54%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 69%.
  • Selection: BTTS Yes.
  • Germany show a 50% BTTS rate and Serbia show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Germany average 0.5 goals scored and Serbia average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 69% for BTTS Yes sits against roughly 54% implied by the current price. Germany show a 50% BTTS rate and Serbia show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: BTTS Yes.

Model chance vs price69% model chance against roughly 54% implied
Strong positive
Germany show a 50% BTTS rate and Serbia show a.Visible data support
Positive
Germany average 0.5 goals scored and Serbia average 1, so.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: BTTS Yes.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because selection: BTTS Yes. Germany show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Serbia show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. The primary risk to this correct score lies in Serbia’s broader decline.

Main risk

The primary risk to this correct score lies in Serbia’s broader decline.

Key Data Signals

BTTS Yes evidence

Selection: BTTS Yes.

Germany show a 50% BTTS rate and Serbia show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Germany average 0.5 goals scored and Serbia average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

BTTS Yes notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Germany0.5
Avg goals scored
Serbia1
Germany1
Avg goals conceded
Serbia2
Germany50%
BTTS rate
Serbia100%
Germany0%
Over 2.5 goals
Serbia100%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Serbia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 31%
6.4
Check odds @ 6.4
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Serbia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 16%
13
Check odds @ 13
Germany Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Germany

LD
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
27 Sep 2026H Greece0-1
24 Sep 2026A Netherlands1-1

Serbia

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
27 Sep 2026H Netherlands1-2
24 Sep 2026H Greece1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
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Serbia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 31%
6.4
Check odds @ 6.4
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.04
Check odds @ 1.04
Serbia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 16%
13
Check odds @ 13
Germany Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Germany to WinBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Germany Over 2.5
100%Serbia Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Germany sit at 0% and Serbia sit at 100% with the H2H average at 1.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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