Football Stats Hub

Finland crestFinland
v
Belarus crestBelarus

UEFA Nations League | Tue 29 Sep, 17:00

Finland v Belarus Stats

Data last updated: Mon 28 Sep 2026, 08:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Finland enters this UEFA Nations League fixture in strong form, having secured a 3-point start with a solid 7-0 goal difference. Their attacking efficiency and defensive solidity contrast with Belarus, who have yet to earn points and have conceded twice without scoring. Finland's tactical setup emphasizes control and high pressing, aiming to capitalize on Belarus's defensive vulnerabilities. The stakes are high as Finland seeks to maintain their top position in the group, while Belarus must respond to early setbacks. This match promises a tactical battle with Finland favored to impose their rhythm and secure victory.

BT4Y match pick

Finland to Win

  • Finland leads the group with 3 points and a +7 goal difference.
  • Belarus has 0 points and has conceded 2 goals without scoring.
  • Finland averages 23 shots and 11 shots on target per game, dominating offensive metrics.
  • Belarus averages only 8 shots and 2 shots on target per game, showing limited attacking threat.
  • Finland maintains a perfect record of clean sheets and no BTTS in recent matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns Finland a 74% chance to win, reflecting their dominant recent form and offensive firepower. Finland's high shot volume and clinical finishing underpin this , while Belarus's struggles to create chances and score reduce their prospects. The price offers positive value with a 13.4% edge, making Finland to win a strong selection. The data quality is robust for both teams, supporting a reliable prediction based on current performance metrics and tactical superiority.

Recent formFinland unbeaten with 7 goals scored and none conceded
Strong positive
Shot controlFinland averages 23 shots per game vs Belarus's 8
Strong positive
Defensive solidityFinland keeps clean sheets; Belarus concedes regularly
Positive
Price value58% model chance vs 60.6% implied (-2.6 pts)
Strong positive
Data qualityComplete and balanced data sets for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Finland's tactical discipline and attacking efficiency make them the clear favorite to win this Nations League match. Their ability to generate high-quality chances and maintain defensive organization contrasts with Belarus's limited offensive output and defensive lapses. This combination of form and tactical control supports backing Finland to secure victory.

Main risk

Finland’s seven-goal opening performance naturally makes them the more eye-catching side heading into Tuesday, but Belarus should provide a significantly different challenge from San Marino.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Finland's commanding offensive stats and defensive resilience create a compelling case for their victory, especially against a Belarus side struggling to generate meaningful chances.”

Key Data Signals

Finland to Win evidence

Finland leads the group with 3 points and a +7 goal difference.

Belarus has 0 points and has conceded 2 goals without scoring.

Finland averages 23 shots and 11 shots on target per game, dominating offensive metrics.

Belarus averages only 8 shots and 2 shots on target per game, showing limited attacking threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Finland to Win notes

  • In the last match between these teams, the average goals scored was 2, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo.
  • Finland's recent matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, indicating an attacking style that could continue here.
  • Belarus's matches have been low scoring, but Finland's offensive pressure may push this fixture towards an over 2.5 goals outcome.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Finland7
Avg goals scored
Belarus0
Finland0
Avg goals conceded
Belarus2
Finland0%
BTTS rate
Belarus0%
Finland100%
Over 2.5 goals
Belarus0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetUK guide price · Model 68% vs implied 65% · edge +2.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Finland's recent matches show a controlled scoring pattern with no goals conceded and no BTTS occurrences, indicating a disciplined defensive approach. Belarus has failed to score so far, suggesting a low likelihood of both teams scoring. This controlled goals context supports a low BTTS probability and a focus on Finland's scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFinland to WinBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 61% · edge -2.6 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Finland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 58% for Finland to Win sits against roughly 60.6% implied by the current price (-2.6 pts). Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Belarus. Past meetings show fewer than three goals, making a controlled two-goal margin plausible despite Belarus's away resilience.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Finland

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
26 Sep 2026A San Marino7-0

Belarus

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
26 Sep 2026A Albania0-2
Market aligned with main pickFinland to WinBetUK guide price · Model 58% vs implied 61% · edge -2.6 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Finland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Finland's recent form is impressive, securing 3 points with a 7-0 goal difference and maintaining clean sheets. Belarus has yet to earn points and has conceded twice without scoring. This contrast highlights Finland's momentum and , reinforcing their status as favorites to win this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Finland Over 2.5
0%Belarus Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last match between these teams, the average goals scored was 2, suggesting a moderate scoring tempo. Finland's recent matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, indicating an attacking style that could continue here. Belarus's matches have been low scoring, but Finland's offensive pressure may push this fixture towards an over 2.5 goals outcome.

Loading deeper match data…