Football Stats Hub

Finland crestFinland
v
Belarus crestBelarus

UEFA Nations League | Tue 29 Sep, 17:00

Finland v Belarus Stats

Data last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026, 11:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Finland face Belarus in UEFA Nations League on Tue 29 Sep, 17:00. Belarus vs Finland preview: Group C1 leaders face stubborn test in Budapest. Leo Walta's form and Joel Pohjanpalo's presence provide scoring options, while Belarus's inability to score against stronger teams supports a Finnish clean sheet.

BT4Y best bet

Finland to win

  • At 19/20, Finland to win implies roughly 51%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 60%.
  • Belarus will again be nominal hosts on neutral territory, so conventional home advantage is limited.
  • Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Belarus.
  • Finland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Finland to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Finland sit 3 in the table, while Belarus sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 60% for Finland to win sits against roughly 51% implied by the current price. Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Belarus. Belarus will again be nominal hosts on neutral territory, so conventional home advantage is limited.

Model chance vs price60% model chance against roughly 51% implied
Positive
Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support
Positive
Finland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Belarus will again be nominal hosts on neutral territory.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Finland Win is the preferred angle because belarus will again be nominal hosts on neutral territory, so conventional home advantage is limited. Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Belarus. Their recent improvement, however, gives them reason for .

Main risk

Their recent improvement, however, gives them reason for .

Key Data Signals

Finland to win evidence

Belarus will again be nominal hosts on neutral territory, so conventional home advantage is limited.

Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Belarus.

Finland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Finland Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Finland sit 3 in the table, while Belarus sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Finland to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Finland7
    Avg goals scored
    Belarus0
    Finland0
    Avg goals conceded
    Belarus2
    Finland0%
    BTTS rate
    Belarus0%
    Finland100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Belarus0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetUK guide price · Model 68% vs implied 64% · edge +4.3 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    BTTS No is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: Finland concede 0 on average and Belarus score 0, so the clean-sheet route has a data base.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFinland to WinBetUK guide price · Model 60% vs implied 65% · edge -4.3 pts
    1.55
    Check odds @ 1.55
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Finland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.27
    Check odds @ 1.27
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 33%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Finland to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Finland

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    26 Sep 2026A San Marino7-0

    Belarus

    L
    Last 50W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 1L
    26 Sep 2026A Albania0-2
    Market aligned with main pickFinland to WinBetUK guide price · Model 60% vs implied 65% · edge -4.3 pts
    1.55
    Check odds @ 1.55
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 83%
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Finland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.27
    Check odds @ 1.27
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Finland Over 2.5
    0%Belarus Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Finland sit at 100% and Belarus sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Loading deeper match data…